Welcome to Carbon Brief’s China Briefing.

Carbon Brief handpicks and explains the most important climate and energy stories from China over the past fortnight.

Snapshot

CLIMATE TALKS:US climate envoy John Kerry will visit China next week. This comes after senior officials from the US, EU and International Energy Agency discussed climate change in Beijing.

ENERGY AND CLIMATE REFORM:The Chinese central government issued policies on 11 July covering a shift from “dual control” of energy towards “dual control” of carbon – limiting the amount and intensity of emissions – as well as reform of electricity, oil and gas markets.

HEATWAVE AND FLOODS:中国北方whil继续面临强烈的热量e floods in the south disrupted more than 130,000 people’s lives. Authorities warned of “ever more frequent extreme heat events…and rising climate risks”.

GALLIUM AND GERMANIUM:Chinese companies now need “special permissions” from the government to export gallium and germanium (used in solar panels), in the latest sign of ongoing geopolitical tensions.

SPOTLIGHT:Carbon Brief looks at China’s role at the International Maritime Organization (IMO) talks where nations agreed to cut shipping emissions to net-zero “by or around” 2050.

NEW SCIENCE:Peer-reviewed studies examine China’sfood system efficiencyand the potential 400m tonnes of carbon dioxide impact of “driver aggressiveness” in China.

Key Developments

China hosts talks with US, EU and IEA

US-CHINA CLIMATE TALKS:The ChineseMinistry of Ecology and Environmentreleased astatementconfirming that US climate envoy Kerry will visit China on 16-19 July. Kerry’s visit is expected to restart “a year-long freeze” in climate negotiations, said theNew York Times．上周,美国财长叶伦visited Beijing and “urge[d] China to boost funding to tackle [the] climate crisis”, reported theGuardian．

EU’S COAL CONCERNS:EU climate chief Frans Timmermans has also been in China recently. He told Chinese university students that he was “convinced” China “is willing to go in the right direction [of tackling climate change]”, but expressed concern over the expansion of China’s coal-fired plants, according toAgence-France Presse．State-run newspaperChina Daily, however, quoted Timmermans saying he had a “very positive” visit to China.

CBAM CLARIFICATION:Timmermans also discussed the EU’s “carbon border adjustment mechanism” (CBAM), reported financial mediaCaixin, adding the two sides agreed to have further talks later this year. (See Carbon Brief’s China Briefing on15 June). Chinese outletYicai蒂默曼说CBAM辩护,说its sole purpose is to prevent “carbon leakage” and that its potential impact on EU-China trade shouldn’t be “overestimated”. Xu Huaqing, a senior Chinese climate official, was quoted by theGlobal Times, a government-supporting newspaper, saying CBAM was “unscientific, irrational and unfair”. Zhou Chengjun, an official at the People’s Bank of China, was quoted by theSouth China Morning Postsaying CBAM was a “new tariff barrier” that “goes against basic economic principles”.

COOPERATION WITH IEA:Similar to Timmermans’ concerns, Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), told Chinese policymakers to reconsider investing in large-scale coal-fired power stations during his trip in Beijing, according to Chinese financial outletCaixin．According to anIEA newsletter, Chinese energy minister Zhang Jianhua and Birol signed a newmemorandum of understandingto “further strengthen” cooperation on climate. Birol also met with his “good friend”, China’s climate envoy Xie Zhenhua,tweetingthat they discussed prospects for COP28 and “my expectation [that China’s] emissions will peak well before 2030”.

New rounds of energy and climate reform announced

NEW POLICY:The Chinese central government passed a series of new policies for energy reform on 11 July, according to state news agencyXinhua．At a meeting about the reforms, China’s president Xi Jinping “called for greater efforts to curb carbon dioxide emissions”,Bloombergreported, citing a Xinhua transcript. Bloomberg called this “a signal the biggest polluter won’t backslide on climate targets”. At the meeting, Xi said “China’s ecological development has entered a critical period in which carbon reduction is the key strategic direction,” reportedCaixin, also citing Xinhua. A day later, the Chinese state broadcaster CCTV’s prime time news programme,Xinwenlianbo,featured China’s achievements on “new energy”, saying “solar and other clean energy” supplied 30% of electricity this summer.

CARBON ‘DUAL CONTROL’:Energy expert Liu Manping toldDianlianxinmei, an online publication of theChina Electricity Council, that three documents among the reforms are directly related to China’s “dual carbon” goals: reforming the electricity system; reforming the gas and oil market; as well as shifting from “dual control” of energy to “dual control” of carbon. State broadcasterCGTNexplained that the “dual control” shift is “from dual control over the amount and intensity of energy consumption to dual control over the amount and intensity of carbon emissions, encouraging and promoting the accelerated development of renewable energy”. (See Carbon Brief’s explanation on“dual control” for energy．) The full documents have not been released yet, but energy consultant Liu Jianfei wrote in anotherCGTNpiece that the new control will require more accurate data measuring emissions, rather than energy, and will promote carbon reduction.

EXPERT OPINIONS:Yan Qin, lead analyst at data provider Refinitv, told Carbon Brief that the new policies gave a “detailed roadmap” for the long-planned energy transition. The reform on “the power sector is expected to be as monumental as the Document No 9 in 2015”, she said, adding “but still we need to see the full text”. (Document No 9marked akey momentin China’s efforts towards electricity market reform and liberalisation.) The new policies made it clear that the construction of a new power system should focus on both energy supply and consumption, gradually reducing the proportion of “traditional energy” and promoting “safe and green” energies, energy expert Yin Ming wrote for energy mediaBeijixing．

China suffers from record heat and floods

NORTHERN HEAT:Last week, the record for the world’s hottest day was brokenmultiple times．TheGlobal Timescalled it “the hottest week on Earth in at least 100,000 years”. Chinese weather forecasters issued a string of heat warnings, reportedReuters．The China Meteorological Administration published a “blue book” – astandard referencedocument – “warning of ever more frequent extreme heat events across the country and rising climate risks”, said theGlobal Times．After 10 consecutive days of temperatures above 35C, the capital Beijing issued a “red alert” and ordered employers to stop work outdoors, with temperatures due to breach 40C, theIndependentreported.CNNsaid Beijing may face one of its hottest summers on record.

SOUTHERN FLOODS:While northern China was battling “torrid heat”, southern China was “battered” by “torrential rains”, saidRadio Free Asia．China Dailyreported the “rain-triggered floods” have disrupted the lives of more than 130,000 people. At least 15 individuals were killed and thousands were evacuated in the city of Chongqing, along the Yangtze river, theSouth China Morning Postwrote, adding that Xi Jinping warned all seven of China’s major rivers were at risk of flooding.Deutsche Welleestimated that floods had caused 227m yuan ($31.5m) worth of economic losses in Chongqing.Economic Dailyreported that the Chinese Ministry of Water Resources initiated a “level IV emergency response” for flood control.

DIFFICULT CHALLENGES:Reuterssaid “officials have warned repeatedly that China is especially vulnerable to the impacts of climate change due to its large population and unevenly distributed water supplies”. Although Xi Jinping urged actions to protect lives from flooding, the problems, such as flooding and extreme weather, that China is facing “are likely to intensify”, said theGuardian．

China curbs exports of gallium and germanium

GALLIUM AND GERMANIUM:China’s Ministry of Commerceannouncedthat, from next month, gallium and germanium exports need “special [government] permissions” to protect the “national interest”. The controls were reportedly China’s response to the latest US restrictions on semiconductors, according toBBC Chinese．Currently, more than 80% of gallium and 60% of germanium are produced in China, according to theConversation．The US imported $3m of gallium metal and $200m of gallium arsenide (GaAs) wafers in 2022, whilethe EUreported that, on average, 27% of its gallium was sourced from China between 2012 and 2016.

GREEN SQUEEZE:Gallium and germanium are “key” components for products such as solar panels and electric vehicles, saidCNBC．Foreign Policyreported that, although both elements can be substituted by silicon, they outperform silicon in certain technologies. An IEAreportin 2021 said gallium arsenide is becoming more desired in the manufacturing of solar cells, with demand for the metal potentially rising 10-fold if more widely adopted. AnotherIEA report, on critical minerals and released on 11 July, said the Chinese export curbs “highlighted the significance of a lesser-known group of critical minerals, often characterised by small volumes, but high levels of supply concentration”.

压力或年代TIMULATION?Wei Jianguo, China’s former vice-minister of commerce, toldChina Dailythat the restrictions could escalate if the US increases its technology control on Beijing. Citing an industry expert,Reutersreported that the inventory of gallium outside of China can only last for six months at best. Global gallium prices rose 27% last week in response to the news, according toBloomberg．However, Gavin Harper, research fellow at Birmingham University, wrote in theConversationthat China’s move might push Western manufacturers to diversify their global supply chain. The US Commerce Department expressed a similar view in an email to theSouth China Morning Post．

OTHER SOURCES:TheCentre for Strategy and International Studiessaid Japan and Germany both have gallium production capacity. South Korea, Russia and Ukraine also have small shares in global gallium production capacity, according to theUS Geological Survey．Meanwhile, the US and Canada, Germany and Russia can be alternative germanium suppliers, according to theConversationandReuters．

Spotlight

China’s approach to shipping emissions

Last week, theInternational Maritime Organization(IMO) set newclimate goals for shipping, including a target of net-zero “by or around” 2050. However, it did not agree on fuel standards or a shipping carbon levy, to help drive and pay for the transition.

China, seen as a key opponent of a levy, is a major player in the sector. Carbon Brief looks at China’s role at the talks and its efforts to tackle shipping emissions.

What was China’s role at the IMO talks?

China opposed “unrealistic” proposals for shipping to reach net-zero emissions by 2050 “at the latest”, according to a diplomatic memo seen by Carbon Brief.

It also opposed interim emissions targets for 2030 and 2040, shipping fuel carbon standards based on the full lifecycle from “well-to-wake”, and a shipping carbon levy.

Instead, it proposed the use of “flexible expressions” to frame the IMO’s ambition, such as net-zero emissions “around mid-century”, which it said was “more practical”.

And, instead of a carbon levy, it proposed an “International Maritime Sustainable Fuels and Fund” (IMSF&F), noted Chinese shipping news outletEworldship．

According toChinese consultancyXinde Haishi, China’s proposal would control emissions, but minimise administrative burdens and impacts on developing countries.

What was behind China’s position?

As the talks opened in London, foreign ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbinrespondedto questions on the memo at his regular press conference, saying China “highly values and actively supports IMO’s efforts to address climate change”. Wang said:

“[The] IMO should follow the principle ofcommon but differentiated responsibilities,考虑不同国家赖斯tions, accommodate the legitimate concerns of developing countries, and promote the formulation of a fair and practical greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction strategy and relevant measures for the international shipping industry.”

China’s memo, previously reported by theFinancial TimesandReuters, warned that “overly ambitious” targets would harm global trade and “basic livelihood[s]”:

“An overly ambitious emission reduction target will seriously impede the sustainable development of international shipping, significantly increase the cost of the supply chain, and will adversely impede the recovery of the global economy and cause detrimental impacts to the basic livelihood of the people.”

TheGlobal Times, a government-supporting newspaper in China, also called attention to a phrase in the IMO’sstatementthat “we have to pay more attention to support developing countries”.

Yasiru Ranaraja, co-founder and director ofBelt & Road Initiative Sri Lanka(BRISL), tells Carbon Brief that many global-south nations face “delicate challenges” in balancing their commitment to fighting climate change with other national priorities, such as poverty alleviation, energy security and industrial growth.

Faig Abbasov, director for shipping at NGOTransport & Environment, tells Carbon Brief that wider geopolitical tensions soured the IMO talks. “Most of the conversations in the room were about the geopolitical tensions outside the room.”

Participants at the IMO meeting, speaking to Carbon Brief on condition of anonymity, say another factor was the contrast between a “by 2050” net-zero target for shipping – a so-called “hard-to-abate” sector – and China’sown goalfor carbon neutrality by 2060.

Why was China worried about shipping costs?

One of China’s biggest concerns, according to the memo, is that emissions reduction measures would increase shipping costs. It said measures based on “aggressive targets” would “lead to a significant increase in maritime transport costs”.

Moreover, it warned that using the proceeds from a shipping levy to fund wider climate action would “make developing countries bear the climate change financing responsibility which should be borne by developed countries”.

Abbasov tells Carbon Brief that, while China’s position at the IMO talks mirrors its stance at previous climate negotiations, he found it to be “more aggressive” in building a coalition of opposition to the shipping levy, including Saudi Arabia, India and others.

(A comment for theSydney Morning Heraldby environment and climate editor Nick O’Malley says Australia and Brazil also opposed the levy to “protect seaborne trade from higher costs”.)

Is China doing anything to decarbonise shipping?

China is home to the world’slargest shipping fleet,biggest and most numerous ports andthe world’slargest shipbuildingsector. As such, the IMO targets are a challenge for China, but also an opportunity.

The shipping industry is responsible foraround 3%of global greenhouse gas emissions. National data is sparse, butone studyputs China’s contribution at 8% of the global total.

(The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development is working on national figures,Robbie Andrewof Norwegian climate instituteCicerotells Carbon Brief.)

At the national level, China has several policies, such as the14th Five-Year Plan on Green Transportation, which include targets for lowering shipping emissions.

Several local governments, such as in Shenzhen, haveissued legislationon the “green and low-carbon transformation” of shipping.

China is also exploring the use of low-carbon “alternative fuels”, with state-owned China Merchants Groupdeveloping ammonia-fueled ships．The Shanghai regional emissions trading schemecoversthe shipping sector.

China accounted for half of global shipbuilding orders in 2022, saysHellenic Shipping News．It also “bag[ged]” half of orders for “dual-fuel green vessels”,SeatradeMaritimereports, quoting Li Yanqing, secretary general ofChina Association of the National Shipbuilding Industry, saying “green fuel for vessels is the general trend”.

Analysis fromLloyd’s Listsays: “Shipbuilding contracts for dry bulkers and tankers adopting new fuel technologies are expected to grow substantially from 2025 onwards.”

Watch, read, listen

CLIMATE MARSHALL PLAN:Bloombergpublished an opinion by columnist David Fickling who said the “heart of the [climate] problem is money” and the US and China can persuade other countries to use the IMF to aid the most needy regions.

‘GREEN MINERAL’ ABUSE:TheGuardianandEnergy Monitorreported China has been accused of “scores of abuses” at “green-energy” mineral projects across the world.

HOUSEHOLD GAS PRICES:Chinese financial mediaCaixinhad an in-depth report under the title: “China mulls scrapping fixed household gas rates as winter shortages loom.”

CHINA‘GREEN JOBS’:China Dialoguepublished a report saying that “green employment” in China is expected to reach one million jobs by 2025.

New Science

Enhanced food system efficiency is the key to China’s 2060 carbon neutrality target
Nature Food

A new study on measures to help reach China’s 2060 net-zero target in thefood systemfinds that a balance between carbon neutrality, food security and global sustainability can only be achieved through a range of actions. These include “well-blended efficiency-enhancing measures in food production and consumption systems”, the researchers find. Using modelling and scenario analysis, the researchers conclude that enhancing food system efficiency is the key to achieving carbon neutrality in China, while also maintaining global sustainability.

Future reductions of China’s transport emissions impacted by changing driving behaviour
Nature Sustainability

Chinese drivers could save up to 400m tonnes of CO2 by driving less aggressively between now and 2050, a new study finds. The researchers created a “standardised driver aggressiveness index” based on driving data collected in China from 2013 and 2021. They then usedintegrated assessment modelsto examine how the adoption of different types of driving behaviours, including calm, neutral and aggressive, could affect vehicle emissions by 2050, with findings that “can be expanded worldwide”.

China Briefing is edited byWanyuan SongandSimon Evans．Please send tips and feedback to[email protected]．