Welcome to Carbon Brief’s China Briefing.
Carbon Brief handpicks and explains the most important climate and energy stories from China over the past fortnight.

Snapshot

CATASTROPHIC FLOODING:More than a million people were forced to leave their homes after northern China was engulfed by floods brought by Typhoon Doksuri.

ENERGY DATA:Newly released Chinese official data shows that the output of fossil fuels “steadily increased” in the first half of 2023, while new renewable installations grew 98%.

EMISSIONS HIGH:New analysis for Carbon Brief shows China’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the second quarter of 2023 returned to record levels seen in 2021.

G20 CLIMATE TALKS:China denied obstructing G20 climate negotiations in India, claiming “the reports are inconsistent with the facts”.

SPOTLIGHT:Carbon Brief looks into the journey of China’s nuclear fleet and what’s driving the next stage of its strategy for the technology.

NEW SCIENCE:Peer-reviewed studies examined China’s drylands being “unsuitable” for grazing by the end of the century and how upgrading solar and wind power systems could help the country to achieve carbon neutrality.

Key developments

Dangerous floods killed dozens of people in China

RECORD RAIN:Typhoon Doksuri brought torrential rain and severe floods to northern China, forcing more than a million others to evacuate,CNNreported. From 29 July to 2 August, the capital Beijing saw its heaviest rainfall – 29 inches (74cm) – in “at least 140 years”, theAssociated Pressreported. Beijing’s local government recorded 38 deaths as of 8 August, state news agencyXinhuareported. Smaller towns surrounding the capital continued to suffer from floods after the rain, when the capital’s flood relief systems directed water into them, saidBBC News．Xinhuareported that the China Meteorological Administration predicted “as many as three typhoons” may affect the country this month. Typhoon Khanan is already approaching northeast China, the country’s top grain production region, theSouth China Morning Postreported.

SPONGE CITY:In an analysis of the floods, local outletBeijing Newssaid that China has acknowledged the danger of climate change, including increasing “urban rainstorms and waterlogging” in its “National climate change adaptation strategy 2035”. The country has built 30 “sponge cities” to soak up rainfall. However, analysis by theJapan Timessaid those “‘sponge cities’ are not built for extreme flood events” as they were designed for rainfall levels in the 30 years prior to 2014, whereas floods “are now far in excess of what the systems were designed to cope with”. Beijing News also admitted the “sponge cities” had not fully functioned as planned, but attributed this to local governments’ “insufficient understanding” of their construction. TheWashington Postpublished an article titled: “How floods and extreme heat could test China’s one-party system.”

China denies ‘obstructing’ G20 climate talks

‘INSUFFICIENT’ ACTION:The latest G20 environment and climate ministersmeetingconcluded in Chennai, India, on 28 July, adopting a consensus outcome, but reaching an “impasse” on “concrete targets to cut…emissions”,Reutersreported. TheIndependentreported that the G20 ministers acknowledged climate action has been “insufficient”. TheFinancial Timesreported India’s environment ministerBhupender Yadavspeaking at a “tense press briefing” after the talks, where he “avoided questions about the lack of consensus on fossil fuels and renewable energy”.

CHINA’S REACTION:TheFinancial Timeswas among several outlets reporting that China had “obstructed” the talks. Citing “people familiar with the talks”, the paper said that Beijing’s stance was backed by Saudi Arabia, “putting in jeopardy hopes of concluding an agreement on ending fossil fuel use and boosting renewable energy”. But China’s foreign ministry hit back, saying that those “reports are inconsistent with the facts” and that “China worked to coordinate the interests of all parties in order to promote the conclusion of a balanced text”, the state-run newspaperChina Dailyreported. Other Chinese state-backed media, such asEconomic Daily, have also criticised the claim as being against “truth”.

New energy data released

‘NEW HIGH’:China’sNational Energy Administrationheld its quarterly press conference and released energydatafor the first half of 2023 on 31 July. The state-run industry newspaperChina Electric Power Newshighlighted that the domestic production of raw coal, crude oil and gas “steadily increased”, with year-on-year growth of 4.4%, 2.1% and 5.4%, respectively. Additions of renewable energy capacity reached 109 gigawatts (GW), a year-on-year increase of 98.3%, the outlet added. The state-run newspaperChina Dailysaid additions of “new energy” storage projects – which refers to electricity storage processes that use electrochemical, compressed air, flywheel and supercapacitor systems, but not pumped hydro – reached “the total installed capacity of previous years in the country”, some 8.63GW.

MORE COAL:Reutersreported that research by Greenpeace showed “China approved more than 50GW of new coal power in the first half of 2023”.Hellenic Shipping Newsreported new figures from the International Energy Agency (IEA) showing global coal consumption “climbed to a new all-time high” in 2022, with demand from China and India increasing “over 5%” during the first half of 2023.

China’s emissions rebound in Q2 2023

EMISSIONS REBOUND:China’s CO2 emissions grew 10% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2023, returning to the record levels seen in 2021, according to new analysis for亚慱官网by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. The surge was due to a rebound from “zero-Covid” measures and an ongoing drought, without which China’s emissions would likely have stabilised, the analysis found.

OUTLOOK CLOUDY:The medium-term emissions outlook for China depends on the central government’s response to a sluggish economy and the balance between a rush to build new coal plants (see above) versus the “staggering” pace of renewable energy growth, the analysis added. Forecast low-carbon growth “could even put China on track to peak its emissions within two years”, the analysis concluded.Bloombergreported on the findings.

Spotlight

What is China’s nuclear strategy?

China recently approvedsix more核反应堆和预计世界’s largest fleet by 2030. Carbon Brief looks at what’s driving China’s nuclear strategy.

How much nuclear power is China building?

Chinabegan buildingits first nuclear plant in 1985. TheOxford Institute for Energy Studies(OEIS) estimates that it will have the world’slargest nuclear fleetby 2030.

For now, China is now the world’s second largestnuclear energyproducer behind the US, having overtaken Francein 2020．By the end of June 2023, China had an installed capacity of 57 gigawatts (GW), according toofficial data．它仍然在96千瓦installed在the US – for now.

TheInternational Atomic Energy Agency(IAEA) says China is the “world’s fastest expanding nuclear power producer”. It has 23 nuclear unitsunder construction, totallingmore than21GW of additional capacity. In addition, China approved 10 new reactors in 2022 and anothersix units last week．

This meteoric rise has seen China’s nuclear output increasenearly fourfold在the past decade, from 112 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2013 to 418TWh in 2022 – one of only a handful of countries along with Russia (+65TWh), South Korea (+36TWh), the United Arab Emirates (+20TWh) and Pakistan (+18TWh) to see significant growth in the period.

Despite this growth, nuclear still makes uponly 5%of China’s electricity mix. This is below nuclear’s9% shareof global supplies in 2022.

China has also become a leading nuclear innovator. It is the first country to build aGeneration IVreactor,connectingademonstration projectto the grid in 2021. Small-scale nuclear-powered district heating projects are running inShandongandZhejiang．

Dr Shengke Zhi, director for growth and development at consulting firmWood, told Carbon Brief that China’s Generation IV technology still has a long way to go. “Generation IIIis still the primary choice for China’s mega-rollout of nuclear capacity,” he said.

Is nuclear power an important part of China’s climate plans?

China’s nuclear capacity is expanding, but there are question marks over how fast it will grow. China could add as many as 10 reactors a year, reaching a capacity of 300GW by 2035, according toChina Nuclear Energy Associationforecasts reported byBloomberglast autumn. The OEIScautionsthat a total of 100GW by 2030 is “more likely”.

Dr Philip Andrews-Speed, senior research fellow at the OEIS, described nuclear energy to Carbon Brief as a “fuel of convenience” for China, pointing out that it meets the country’s concerns around energy security and the need to decarbonise.

China has been able to build new nuclear plants much more cheaply than many other countries. Analysts put the costs per kilowatt of installed nuclear capacity in China at around one-third of those in the US or France,Bloombergreported.

Zhi pointed to China’s “design-one build-many” approach to nuclear construction as one reason for its success. A2018 paper在the journal Sustainability suggested nuclear power in China could become more competitive than coal by 2030.

Policymakers have used a familiar toolkit to encourage development. Mark Hibbs, senior fellow at thinktankCarnegie Endowment for International Peace,identifiedfinancial subsidies, access to decision-makers and favourable price-setting as key advantages.

He wrote that the “guaranteed tariff paid to producers for nuclear power…has been higher than the rate for either coal-fired or hydroelectric power”. He also quoted a Chinese nuclear industry executive, who said in 2015: “We watch this carefully…if the government were to take this away from us, the future of our business would be in a lot of trouble.”

The WNApoints outthat safety questions have slowed China’s nuclear ambitions. Following theFukushima Daiichi accident, Chinatemporarilysuspended approvalsof new power plants, to review concerns over safety and river pollution, according to Andrews-Speed.

However, the Chinese government called for “actively developing nuclear power” – with a “steady pace” of construction – as part of its 2021action planon peaking CO2 before 2030.

Is China exporting its nuclear power technology?

In 2019,Reutersreported one senior industry official saying China aims to build as many as 30 overseas nuclear power units by 2030.

“I don’t see China meeting this goal”, Andrews-Speed told Carbon Brief. He attributed this to China’s domestic focus: with around 23 units under construction and as many as 156 more proposals for future plants, nuclear companies are “very much busy at home”.

The UK, Argentina and other countries had signed deals to cooperate with China on domestic nuclear reactors, butsecurity concerns在the UK andsignificant delaysin Argentina have limited full cooperation.

In Pakistan,eight reactorsbuilt with Chinese assistance are either in operation or under construction, boosting generation capacity in a country that has beenbeset with shortages．

China is aiming to use its nuclear projects in Pakistan as a “springboard” to further export growth for the technology,Nikkei Asiareported in July.

Nevertheless, China’s ambitions to increase its nuclear technology exports are limited, Andrews-Speedwrites, by Russia’s influence in the sector, the fact that China is not yet a party to theIAEA Vienna Convention,事实上,它不收回fue使用l.

Watch, read, listen

ECOLOGICAL ‘ACHIEVEMENT’:The Chinese ministry of ecology and environment published a comment piece inQiushimagazine, the official theoretical journal of the Communist party, declaring China has “made huge achievements” in the “construction of ecological civilization” and “buildingbeautiful China”, under the leadership of Xi Jinping.

XI’S AGRICULTURAL PLEDGE:Qiushi’s English edition published Xi’s remarks about “mov[ing] faster to build a strong agricultural country and advance agricultural and rural modernisation”.

EXTREME WEATHER:China’s state broadcasterCCTVreleased an in-depth TV investigation into extreme weather, amid floods in north China, with interviews with Ma Xuekuan, chief weather forecaster of theChina Meteorological Administration．

US-CHINA CLIMATE DEAL:TheHillpublished an opinion piece by Li Shuo, global policy advisor for Greenpeace East Asia, under the title: “Xi will not be pushed on climate by Biden, but a deal is possible.”

GEOPOLITICS AND ENERGY:The latest issue of theOxford Institute of Energy Studiesquarterly journal looks at China’s role in the new geopolitics of energy, covering critical mineral supply chains, “de-risking”, hydrogen and more.

New science

Climate-driven ecological thresholds in China’s drylands modulated by grazing
Nature Sustainability

A new study found that up to half of China’s drylands may be “unsuitable” for grazing by the end of the century due to climate-change-induced drying. Researchers used remote-sensing data to determine how 20 different ecological variables, such as plant productivity and soil fertility, change in response to changes in grazing pressure and aridity. They found that increased pressure from grazing lowers most ecosystems’ aridity threshold, “showing how ecological thresholds can be amplified by the joint effects” of grazing pressure and climate change. They also found that almost 9% of current grazing areas are exceeding their “maximum allowable grazing pressure”.

Accelerating the energy transition towards photovoltaic and wind in China
Nature

的一项研究描述了如何加快部署of solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind power systems could help China meet its goal of carbon neutrality by 2060. It says historical rates of renewable installation and forecasts based on China’s 14th five-year-plan on energy development would fall short of the levels required by 2060. The authors showed how massively scaled up investment in PV and wind combined withultra-high-voltage transmission, energy storage and demand flexibility meet required capacity while reducing average carbon abatement costs and bringing benefits to residents in the poorest regions.

China Briefing is edited byWanyuan SongandSimon Evans．Please send tips and feedback to[email protected]．