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Wind-farm-and-rapeseed-fields-on-the-town-borders -between-Warstein-Belecke-and-Anrochte-Erwitte,-Germany
风电场和油菜籽在镇边界之间在Warstein-belecke和anrochte erwitte,德国之间。 Credit: Hans Blossey / Alamy Stock Photo.
vip亚博
9 December 202010:00

环境署:Net-Zero承诺提供了一个“开放”,以缩小不断增长的排放“差距”

Zeke Hausfather

Zeke Hausfather

12。0.9.20
Zeke Hausfather

Zeke Hausfather

09.12.2020.|10:00am
vip亚博 环境署:Net-Zero承诺提供了一个“开放”,以缩小不断增长的排放“差距”

The recent net-zero pledges by major emitting countries and the potential for a “green recovery“从Covid-19大流行者”展示了世界的开幕“,关闭现有承诺之间的日益增长的”差距“以及限制全球变暖所需的内容,以满足巴黎协定目标。

这是根据最新的联合国环境计划(环境署)排放差距报告,今天发表。

年度报告现在在第11年,发现全球排放量将于2020年跌倒由于Covid-19相关中断。但它也显示出毫无疑问,1.5C进球下降的速度有多迅速,以及如何将全球变暖到“低于”2C目标正在变得越来越困难,排放的每年都越来越困难。

然而,环境署突出了三个方面 - 从Covid-19复苏,各国塑造了雄心勃勃的缓解目标的新意愿,以及清洁能源技术的快速进步 - 其中共同提供有助于关闭这种“排放差距”的机会。

但是,在没有更具结构性政策驱动的变化的情况下,它表明,减排将在未来几年反弹,承诺与必要水平之间的差距将仍然与去年一样大。(亚慱官网碳简介档案还包括环境署报告的详细覆盖范围2014年2015年2016年2017年2018年and2019年)。

This year’s report finds that, by 2030, global greenhouse gas emissions will need to fall by 23% from 2019 levels to put the world on track to “likely” (66% chance) avoid 2C warming above pre-industrial temperatures, by 33% to likely avoid 1.8C warming, and by 56% to likely avoid 1.5C warming.

The existing short-term commitments under the Paris Agreement, on the other hand, imply that emissions will simply plateau, remaining only slightly below 2019 levels by 2030.

与此同时,越来越多的国家 - 包括中国,日本韩国,欧盟,UKand the incomingBiden-Harris.administration in the US – have recently pledged to bring emissions down to net-zero by the year 2050 or 2060.

The report suggests that these commitments are “broadly consistent” with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5C goal, but still need to be reflected in near-term policy action and via enhanced “nationally determined contributions” (NDCs).

排放轨迹

Each UNEP report analyses the previous year’s emissions. However, this year’s report also includes some analysis of 2020’s projected emissions thanks to the extra work already undertaken by a各种研究人员around the world keen to study the impact of Covid-19 lockdowns.

新报告显示,全球温室气体(GHG)排放量2019年上升,主要是由于土地利用和非二氧化碳的二氧化碳排放量。然而,来自化石燃料的二氧化碳排放仍然在2018年粗糙度下increases in China抵消了世界其他地区的减少。

下图,从新的UNEP报告中显示出主要发出国家的绝对和人均排放量。它还展示了国际运输航空和运输的排放 - 通常被排除在国内排放账户之外,是今年报告的特别重点。

最高六个排放国家的温室气体排放。
温室气体排放(在GIGATONNES - GT - CO2)来自前六大排放国家(不包括土地使用变化排放),包括国际运输。左侧面板显示绝对排放,右侧面板显示人均排放。资料来源:2020环境署排放差距的图2.2报告

The magnitude of international transport emissions is particularly noteworthy – it would be the 6th largest emitter of GHGs, if it were a country. The sector currently accounts for around 5% of global emissions and is expected to grow rapidly in the future as greater levels of prosperity in developing countries increases demand for travel and goods.

国际交通的排放通常不被现有的巴黎协定气候承诺所涵盖,称为“国家核算”(NDCS)。该报告表明,单独的效率将不足以脱碳和替代品,如生物燃料,synfuelshydrogenand electrification, are needed.

环境署报告称,展望今年的趋势,表示,Covid-19大流行预计将在2020年造成排放量,二氧化碳排放量可能下降约7%,相对于2019年级别约为7%。

Glossary
CO.2相等的:温室气体可以以二氧化碳等效,或CO表示2eq. For a given amount, different greenhouse gases trap different amounts of heat in the atmosphere, a quantity known as…Read More

环境署报告表明,总温室气体排放量跌幅可能有点较小,因为它们对大流行相关的中断的影响较小。如果2019年的非二氧化碳排放量仍然在2019年,则预计总计温室气体排放将在2020年左右下降约5% - 或大约3个GTCO2E - 。该报告表明,由于经济增长较慢和加速资本替代,其中一些减少将介于延缓,其中2-4GtCO2E持续到2030,相对于预科预测。

下图,调整了报告,显示了UNEP最新的排放差距分析一目了然。yabo亚博体育app下载与2010年到位的政策相关的排放轨迹 - 但在这一点之后没有任何东西 - 在橙色政府已经实施的红色和现行政策中显示出来。

额外承诺NDCS.尚未实施的,对于其他国家的援助或行动的条件,无条件承诺和浅蓝色显示为黄色。符合低于2C,1.8C的发射轨迹,分别以蓝色,紫色和灰色显示为1.5℃。

来自UNEP缺口报告报告的中位数发射场景图3.1
Median emission scenarios adapted from the report’s figure 3.1. Red line shows a scenario with no new climate policies after 2005, orange shows existing policies already implemented by governments, yellow and light blue lines show additional conditional and unconditional NDCs, blue line shows emissions consistent with a below 2C trajectory, purple line below 1.8C, and grey line shows emissions consistent with a 1.5C trajectory. Source: UNEP Emissions Gap报告20.20.。通过碳简短使用图表亚慱官网高级园林

There is a large gap between what countries have committed to, in terms of future emission reductions, and what would be needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals. Current NDCs would result in global emissions plateauing rather than declining. They would leave the world in 2030 some 12-15bn tonnes of CO2 equivalent (GtCO2e) short of what is needed to be on track to limit warming below 2C and 29-32GtCO2e short for 1.5C.

Net-zero goals

At the same time, the report notes that an increasing number of countries have set net-zero emission targets, with a number of major emitters announcing 2050 or 2060 targets over the course of 2020.

目前,涵盖了51%的全球温室气体排放的126个国家具有正式通过,宣布或正在考虑的净零目标。随着美国的来招哈里斯管理,这将增加到63%。这些国家包括主要发射商,如UK,欧盟,中国,日本,韩国,加拿大,南非,阿根廷和墨西哥。这也是明显的65 countries这对2019年的这一点有类似的承诺。

However, there is a large difference between announced long-term climate targets and the short-to-medium term actions needed to accomplish them, stresses the new report. Some targets – such as those proposed by the incoming Biden administration – will still need to be translated into more binding legislation, which may prove challenging. The UNEP report suggests that countries need to submit new and updated NDCs consistent with the net-zero emissions goals.

该报告还表明,符合现有的NDCS将使世界追踪为66%的机会避免3.2C以上预先预热2100,符合最近的其他评估of current and stated policy scenarios. They suggest that the full implementation of current net-zero commitments would lead to avoiding (with a 66% chance) warming of 2.7C without the US and 2.5C with the US.

这些数字与最近的一致Climate Action Tracker(猫)报告(见下面的图形),这表明当前的网络零承诺充分实施将导致50%的几率限制为2.1℃。猫使用不同的阈值,但是有50%的限制变暖到2.1c的几率与鉴于不确定性的情况下限制为2.5℃的66%的几率相当。climate sensitivity虽然这些不同的方式表达了全球变暖结果可能非常令人困惑。估计这些净零目标对全球温度的影响是具有挑战性的,部分原因是依赖目前缺乏净零承诺的国家的排放问题。

气候行动跟踪温度计,截至2020年12月
Climate Action Trackerthermometer, as of December 2020. Temperatures shown are the average (50%) outcome and uncertainty range. Source:猫全球更新12月2020年12月

Currently many countries are not on track to meet their NDC commitments. Only nine G20 members are on track to meet their 2030 commitments, five members are on track to miss their targets and, for two, the outcome is unclear. While the net-zero commitments made by many countries are a hopeful sign, the new UNEP report shows that until they are reflected in actual short-to-medium-term policy there is a risk they may turn out to be empty promises.

时间不多了

有相对较少的carbon budget剩下全球变暖限制在工业前水平以上1.5℃。该报告突出了如何,如果2020年排放预计比2019年低于7%,则会有only around 295GtCO2- 或七年目前排放 - 剩下可以在世界之前发出的,在世界上有66%的机会避免1.5C变暖。对于50%的几率避免1.5℃,剩余的碳预算仅为455gtco2,或大约10年的当前排放。

While this carbon budget could be expanded through the widespread use ofnegative emissions technologies(网)在本世纪之后 - 如在环境署报告所使用的1.5C场景中假设 - 有一些不情愿打赌仍然在规模​​上仍然未经证实的网上的未来。

Carbon Brief’s interactive chart below, inspired by the UNEP gap report analysis and adapted from one created byCICERO’sDr Robbie Andrews那shows emission trajectories to limit global warming to below 1.5C in the absence of净负排放。The different lines show the emissions reductions that would be required if emissions had peaked in each year, between 2000 and 2026, with the current year (2020) highlighted in grey.

减排轨迹与66%的机会有关,限制在1.5℃以下的温暖
减少减排轨迹与66%的几率限制在1.5℃以下,无需开始净负排放,开始年份。坚实的黑线显示历史排放,而虚线的黑线在2019年显示排放量。资料来源:历史二氧化碳排放量全球碳项目。1.5C基于的碳预算IPCC SR15报告。Original figure from罗比安德鲁斯。通过碳简短使用图表亚慱官网高级园林

If emissions had peaked and begun to decline after 2000, the 1.5C target would have been much easier to achieve, only requiring reductions of around 3% per year. By contrast, limiting warming to below 1.5C starting in 2020, without the use of NETs, would require a roughly 14% cut each year through to 2040.

随着网的纳入,可以创造限制低于1.5℃以下的方案,这不涉及未来几年的排放量非常沉重。但是,这些依赖行星规模部署网 - 有一些需要三次印度土地面积的型号,用于将生物能源与碳捕获和储存部署(BECCS)为了“吮吸”世界上目前的人类造成的每年造成的一半人为的排放量。

Each year that passes without global emission reductions puts the 1.5C target further out of reach, says the UNEP report. While the Paris Agreement’s “well below” 2C target is easier to achieve than 1.5C, delays will make it increasingly difficult, too.

亚慱官网下面的碳简介互动图表显示了达到达到净负排放的达到达到2C目标所需的排放减排。

减少减排轨迹与66%的有机会限制在2C以下的机会
减排轨迹与66%的几率有可能限制在2C以下没有净负排放的2C以下的几率。坚实的黑线显示历史排放,而虚线的黑线在2019年显示排放量。资料来源:历史二氧化碳排放量全球碳项目。Below-2C carbon budgets based on theIPCC SR15报告。Original figure from罗比安德鲁斯。通过碳简短使用图表亚慱官网高级园林

Overall, the latest UNEP gap report suggests that the world has “stronger pledges on climate” in recent years and that even current policies have moved the world away from some of the最糟糕的情况排放情景。

与此同时,实际发生的差距以及限制对巴黎协议目标为1.5℃和2C的差距,每次过去一年将继续变大,所以需要更加陡峭的未来减少。虽然最近一些主要的排放国家的净零承诺是“重要的和鼓励”,但证明将“在近期政策行动中反映的程度”。

来自这个故事的Sharelines
  • 环境署:Net-Zero承诺提供了一个“开放”,以缩小不断增长的排放“差距”
  • UNEP:提供“开放”的三件事,以缩小不断增长的排放“差距”

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Get a Daily or Weekly round-up of all the important articles and papers selected by Carbon Brief by email. By entering your email address you agree for your data to be handled in accordance with our隐私政策