Guest post: Nearly half of recent climate pledges plan to keep extracting fossil fuels

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the production and use of fossil fuels must be “greatly reduced“继续变暖低于1.5摄氏度。

While countries haveso far failedto agree on a collective goal to phase fossil fuels “down” or “out”, the Paris Agreement gives individual nations space to plot their own path.

In anew study, published by theStockholm Environment Institute, my colleagues and I explore how countries discuss fossil fuel production in their official Paris climate pledges.

We found that more and more countries are discussing the production of fossil fuels in their “nationally determined contributions” (NDCs).

The topic is mentioned in two-thirds of fossil fuel-producing countries’ second-round NDCs, an increase on the first iteration, highlighting the increased discussion around the topic.

But we observe that while a few countries are reporting on measures to phase out fossil fuel production, nearly half of second-round NDCs included plans to maintain or even increase fossil fuel production.

Here, we take a closer look at the growing discussion of fossil fuel production in NDCs and “long-term low emissions development strategies” (LT-LEDS), the significance of their inclusion and how governments could build in targets and pathways for winding down production as we look to the next NDC cycle.

A global stocktake

To meet climate goals, the production of coal, oil and gas needs to be wound down.

Although the Paris Agreement does not directly mention fossil fuel extraction, its bottom-up architecture means that countries could place a significant policy focus on fossil fuel production if they so choose.

An assessment ofNDCsandLT-LEDSforms part of the“全球盘点”of efforts to meet the decarbonisation goals agreed in the Paris Agreement and, therefore, can provide an insight into efforts to move away from fossil fuel production in climate plans.

Within the analysis, we looked at 103 first-round NDCs (those published between 2015-19), 95 second-round NDCs (2019-March 2023) and 31 LT-LEDS belonging to fossil fuel producing countries.

Additionally, we looked at 65 first-round NDCs, 48 second-round NDCs and 19 LT-LEDS submitted by countries that do not produce fossil fuels.

To assess how the documents discussed the production of fossil fuels, we broke it down into five categories:

1. background information;
2. winding down or phasing out production;
3. continuing or increasing production;
4. transition planning;
5. equity, international support, and cooperation

Targeting fossil fuel reduction’ work

We found that a small number of countries have explicit commitments, policies or pathways to reduce or end fossil fuels in their NDCs or LT-LEDS: two first-round NDCs, five second-round NDCs and 15 LT-LEDS. For instance,France’s LT-LEDSinclude its policy to end fossil fuel production by 2040.

Overall, only two countries discuss targets or policies designed to restrict or wind down fossil fuel production in their first-round NDCs, illustrated by the mid-green sliver in the second column from the top of the chart below. This rises to five in second-round NDCs (dark green) and 13 in LT-LEDS (light green).

Others – as shown in the first set of bars – do not include active policies, but, rather, quietly acknowledge the reality that their fossil fuel production will decrease. Australia is in this camp, for instance. ItsLT-LEDS, while pledging to continue producing fossil fuels for as long as the world needs them, predicts that production will be 35% lower in 2050 than in 2020 due to changes in global demand.

However, a much larger number of countries plan to increase fossil fuel production, or indicate that they will maintain current levels: 35 first-round NDCs, 45 second-round NDCs, and 13 LT-LEDS . This is illustrated in the second set of bars in the figure below (“continuing or increasing production”).

In total, we found that a third of first-round NDCs include plans to continue or increase fossil fuel production, nearly half of second-round NDCs (46%) and more than a third of LT-LEDS.

In particular, this increase within the second-round of NDCs is notable, with 15 new countries including the continuation or expansion of fossil fuel production in their second-round NDCs, while only three have dropped the reference in the second iteration.

Indeed, two countries that do not currently produce oil and gas – Lebanon and Senegal – expressed intent to begin in their second-round NDC.

Included in the group of countries planning to continue production are those that discuss emissions reductions commitments for their oil and gas sectors in their NDCs or LT-LEDS.

Approximately a quarter of first-round NDCs, second-round NDCs and LT-LEDS included sectoral emissions reduction measures and/or targets. The number of countries targeting such measures seems to be increasing slightly, as for those fossil fuel producing countries that submitted both rounds of NDCs, 17 included such policies in the first round, while 20 included them in the second round, as shown in the second set of bars within the above chart.

Many countries, such as Canada, Norway, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, include commitments to reduce flaring, electrify processes or increase the energy efficiency of fossil fuel production.

These countries mostly do not simultaneously indicate any intention to scale down production volumes, however, despite the fact that oil and gas productiondeclines by at least 65% by 2050in scenarios that limit warming to 1.5C.

Just transition

Phasing down extraction poses many challenges toeconomies relianton fossil fuel exports, as well as to workers and communities in affected industries.

化石燃料的生产是一个重要的福音to a nation’s economy, in some cases forming a substantial majority of export revenue.

Some 15% of first-round NDCs, 25% of second-round NDCs and 10% of LT-LEDS from fossil fuel producing countries included information about the country’s economic dependence on fossil fuel production and/or export within their documentation.

As such, it is clear that many countries are grappling with the challenge of how to transition away from such dependence, in as just a way as possible.

Some are using their NDCs to announce measures to support affected workers and communities through ajust transition,such as, for example, the European Union.

We found that the number of countries mentioning fossil fuel production in the context of planning for a just transition is increasing, with nine first-round NDCs, 17 second-round NDCs and 15 LT-LEDS including it.

Increasingly, developing countries are using their NDCs to indicate that they need support, such as finance or technology, in order to leave fossil fuel reserves in the ground.

Four first-round NDCs from fossil fuel-producing countries highlight the need for international cooperation and support to make the transition, as well as 20 second-round NDCs and five LT-LEDS.

However, developed countries are not providing corresponding commitments to provide international support to help poor countries transition away from fossil fuel production.

Reevaluating fossil fuel production

To sum up, there is a growing amount of mentions of the production of fossil fuels in countries NDCs and LT-LEDS, suggesting a growing normalisation of fossil fuel extraction policies in the UNFCCC regime.

However, countries are most often communicating plans to maintain or increase production, rather than phasing it out, leaving the discussion in its infancy.

Moreover, it is clear that tricky issues around equity, a just transition and economic diversification are posing challenges to the closure of fossil fuels, pointing to the need for further international collaboration and, in particular, support for developing nations.

In the next round of NDCs, due in 2025, governments have the opportunity to reevaluate their approaches to fossil fuel production.

Fossil fuel-producing states have an opportunity to strengthen the information they provide in their NDCs and LT-LEDS with regard to existing fossil fuel production, their targets and policies for phasing down fossil fuel production.

They can also build out and share their policies and plans for a just transition for workers and communities, and how they plan to diversify economies away from fossil fuel production.

Finally, fossil-fuel producers can share information about international support needed to phase down fossil fuel production, while donor countries can share commitments on international support.