Explainer: Why some US Democrats want a ‘Green New Deal’ to tackle climate change

Update – 7 February 2019: Thetextof a green new deal resolution for the US House of Representatives has been released. Asection has been addedat the end of this article to discuss the contents of the plan.

A growing number of Democrats in the US Congress are hoping to create a new set of policies which would trigger a rapid decarbonisation of the US economy. They have labelled the plan as the “green new deal”.

The proposed policy would, say its advocates, be in-line with the speed and scale of changes that would be required to meet theParis Agreement’s aspirational goal of limiting warming to below 1.5C by the end of the century.

While its details are still amorphous, the green new deal envisions massive-scale public investments in energy and efficiency measures, aiming to fully decarbonise the US electricity sector – and much of the rest of the economy – by the year 2030.

A number of Democrats, led by representative-electAlexandria Ocasio-Cortezfrom New York’s14th congressional district, are advocating for the creation of a “select committee for a green new deal” that would work to develop a detailed plan to decarbonise the US economy. The goal would be to have a plan of action in place by 2020, which could be quickly implemented – if Democrats take both the Senate and presidency in the 2020 elections.

The proposed goals of the green new deal reflect the vast scale of changes needed in the near future to put the US on a path to help limit global warming to below 1.5C. It is an attempt to move the Democratic platform toward ambitious climate action.

However, it is alsofacing pushbackfrom more centrist members of the caucus who argue that the goals may be too ambitious and that the focus should be on potential near-term bipartisan solutions.

A long history of green new deals

The idea of a large-scale public investment in mitigating greenhouse gas emissions is not new. For example, as far back as 2003 the nonprofitApollo Alliancesought to make an alliance between environmental and labour groups for a “a newApollo project” to undertake a $300bn, 10-year effort to accelerate the transition to clean energy.

The term “green new deal” has been used by many different groups over the years. It was promoted by New York Times columnist Thomas Friedmanback in 2007, by the UK-basedNew Economics Foundationin 2008 and by, among others, the European andUS Green parties.

Earlier in 2018, the US thinktankData for Progresspublished adetailed policy reporton what such a programme might entail, including a commitment to 100% clean electricity by 2035 and net-zero emissions from all US energy consumption by 2050.

The details differ by proposal, but the common theme is a large-scale investment of public resources for rapid decarbonisation, modelled afterthe emergency measurestaken in the 1930s by US president Franklin Roosevelt during the Great Depression.

A “solving our climate crisis”town-hall event is due to take place today in Washington DC, where the green new deal will be debated by the likes of Ocasio-Cortez, veteran environmental and authorBill McKibbenand Vermont senatorBernie Sanders.

Pushing the Democratic party platform

The recent 2018 midterm elections in the US saw a new group of Democratic representatives elected totake officefor whom climate change is a major issue. Representative-electAlexandria Ocasio-Cortezof New York, arising starof the progressive wing of the Democratic Party, has brought the idea of a green new deal to the fore in recent weeks,proposing the creationof a select committee of 15 representatives in the House to hammer out the details.

At the same time, the youth-drivenSunrise Movementhas ramped up pressure on Democrats to commit to an ambitious climate action, staging a number of protests in support of a green new deal, including one last month joined by Ocasio-Cortez outside of minority leaderNancy Pelosi’s office.

https://twitter.com/sunrisemvmt/status/1062366153538965506

The movement is now pressuring Democrats tosupport the creationof the green new deal select committee. The goal of theselect committeewould be to develop:

“A detailed national, industrial, economic mobilisation plan…for the transition of the US economy to become carbon neutral and to significantly drawdown and capture greenhouse gases from the atmosphere and oceans and to promote economic and environmental justice and equality.”

This would be developed through consultations over the next year with a range of experts, including scientists, lawmakers, labour unions and business leaders. The details of a green new deal would be finalised by 1 January 2020 when, advocates hope, a change in the composition of Congress and the presidency could allow a bill undertaking ambitious climate action to be passed by both houses and not be vetoed by the president.

Ocasio-Cortez’sproposalincludes a list of goals for the plan that would, ultimately, be developed by the select committee and achieved “in no longer than 10 years from the start of execution of the plan”. The goals include:

• 100% of national power generation from renewable sources.
• Building a national energy-efficient“smart” grid.
• Upgrading every residential and industrial building for state-of-the-art energy efficiency, comfort and safety.
• Decarbonising manufacturing, agricultural and other industries.
• Decarbonising, repairing and improving transportation and other infrastructure.
• Funding massive investment in the drawdown and capture of greenhouse gases.
• Making “green” technology, industry, expertise, products and services a major export of the US, helping other countries transition to carbon-neutral economies.
• Provide all members of society a job guarantee programme to assure a living wage job.
• Basic income programmes and universal health care.

This initiative reflects a tacit acknowledgement that little meaningful congressional action on climate change will occur as long as Republicans control the Senate and presidency. Rather, the deal’s supporters want to set the stage for rapid actionshould voters elect“a Democratic administration and Congress in 2020”. It seeks to establish specific actions for rapid and expansive climate mitigationas a core partof the Democraticparty platform(manifesto).

Planning a rapid transition

The goals proposed by Ocasio-Cortez reflect many of the proposals in the earlier “Data for Progress”report,尽管她建议一个更加速timeline, namely, fully decarbonising US electricity generation by 2030 rather than 2035. Ocasio-Cortez specifically calls for 100% renewable generation, while the Data for Progress report calls for 100% clean and renewable generation, which allows for the use of nuclear and fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage.

This is an important distinction, asroughly a fifthof current US electricity generation – and the majority of currentnear zero-carbonelectricity – comes from nuclear power. Shutting down all of these power plants along with all fossil-fuel generation over the course of a decade would impose significant additional challenges.

A decade-long transition would also entail the early retirement of a large number of electricity generation assets well before their end of expected life. Depending on the scope of decarbonisation in the transportation sector, it might also entail the early retirement of petrol and diesel vehicles. There has been little assessment to-date of the cost of these proposals.

At the same time, however, these goals do reflect the scope and scale of the transition that would likely be required to be consistent with emissions pathways limiting warming to below 1.5C in 2100.

The figure below, from the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)special report on 1.5C, suggests that scenarios that minimise the amount of late-centurynegative emissionsdeployment require global emission reductions of around 60% by 2030 from current levels – and, presumably, even larger emission reductions in developed, high-emitting countries, such as the US.

The figure shows CO2 emissions in four future pathways – P1 through P4 – each of which has some combination of positive emissions from fossil fuels and industry, and negative emissions fromafforestationand land use (AFOLU) and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). Pathways with more rapid near-term emission reductions – such as P1 and P2 – minimise the need fora massive-scale deploymentof negative emissions later in the century.

For the US to reduce its emissions more than 60% by 2030, itwould likely requirea near-complete decarbonisation of the power sector, along with additional large reductions in emissions from transportation and industry.

The figure below, produced by Carbon Brief, shows the baseline US greenhouse gas emissions in the absence of any new policies in dark blue –based on estimatespublished by theRhodium Group. A pathway consistent with limiting temperatures to below 1.5C without a massive-scale deployment of negative emissions is shown in light blue – and involves a 60% decline in emissions by 2030, reflecting the global trajectory to 1.5C. Finally, a scenario with 100% clean electricity generation by 2030 is shown in yellow – and assumes that emissions in other sectors remain flat.

US greenhouse gas emissions – in million tonnes CO2-equivalent (MtCO2eq) for a baseline no-additional-policy scenario (dark blue), a100% clean electricity by 2030scenario (yellow), and a 1.5C-consistent pathway with a 60% decline in emissions by 2030 (light blue). Chart by Carbon Brief usingHighcharts.

The 100% clean electricity by 2030 goal in the new green deal would only get the US about halfway to being on a below-1.5C pathway, even if the US only took on a global-average level of ambition. Large reductions would have to come from other sectors of the economy, specifically transportation and residential, commercial, and industrial energy use.

Moving away from markets

Many of the climate solutions offered by both theleftandrightin the US over the past decade have focused on utilising market mechanisms – such ascap-and-trade systemsor carbon taxes.

The green new deal proposal moves away from a primary reliance on market-based approaches,arguing that“given the magnitude of the current challenge, the tools of regulation and taxation, used in isolation, will not be enough to quickly and smoothly accomplish the transformation”.

The proposal notes that it is possible that “if we [the US] had put in place targeted regulations and progressively increasing carbon and similar taxes several decades ago, the economy could have transformed itself by now”. But, it adds, “we did not do that, and now time has run out”.

It suggests that while there is a role for a carbon price, the main thrust of the transition should be in the form of large-scale public investment.

The proposal also argues that the private sector alone would be unable to leverage the level of resources needed for such a rapid transition. It suggests that the required investment would be enormous,noting thatprior calls for $1 trillion over 10 years reflect a “wholly inadequate level of investment”.

These “massive” government investments would be funded by increasing the money supply via the Federal Reserve similar to thequantitative easingprogrammes undertaken in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. This would be through new public banks to extend credit and through various taxation tools, such a price on carbon and progressive wealth taxes.

Role for incrementalism?

The new proposal is likely to prove controversial among the wider Democratic caucus, given its scope and price tag. It is unclear at this stage how much support the creation of the select committee will get – though, at the time of publication, 18 of the 235 Democratic representatives hadannounced their support.

Democrats were already planning on bringing back a different select committee focused on climate change, similar to theSelect Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warmingwhich existed from 2007-2010 when Democrats lost control of the House. Thereis concernthat having two separate select committees would be duplicative and some more centrist Democratshave expressed scepticismabout the scope of the green new deal committee’s goals.

Some Democrats want to focus more on searching for bipartisan solutions that can be passed by the current Congress, rather than gambling on a hypothetical future Democratic takeover of both congress and the presidency.

Prof Dan Kammen, a professor of energy at theUniversity of California, Berkeley, andformer science envoy美国国务院,告诉碳短暂th亚慱官网at “Democrats need to work within the existing committee system – rather than creating a new select committee – to have any hope of passing something”.

Kammen suggests that while planning for future action is important, Democrats should not abandon the option of finding common ground with some Republicans in the Senate to pass climate policies in the near-term.

The green new deal proposal has received significant attention in the media over the past few weeks. Activist author Naomi Klein praised itin an articlein the Intercept, calling it “a comprehensive and holistic plan to actually put the fire out”, rather than a piecemeal approach like past climate policies. On the other hand, the Hillcriticisedthe potentially “exorbitant price tag”, quoting Vibrant Clean Energy’sDr Christopher Clackthat the 100% renewable mandate alone “would cost at least $2 trillion” over the decade. Meanwhile, Vox’s David Robertsstressed the importanceof aspirational exercises, even if they are unlikely to be passed into law:

David Roberts on the “Green New Deal”

The proposed green new deal reflects a new focus on climate change by Democrats, advancing for the first time a set of measures that reflect the scale and speed of a mitigation response that would be consistent with a pathway limiting warming to below 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. At the same time, it is still far from being a fleshed-out plan, and the proposal to create a green new deal subcommittee in the House thus far only has a handful of supporters and has a long path to go to becoming reality.

Update on 7 February 2019: Text of the green new deal resolution released

On 7 February, 2019, SenatorEd Markey(D-MA) and CongresswomanAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez(D-NY) introduced agreen new deal resolution在美国众议院。的resolution is entitled: “Recognizing the duty of the Federal Government to create a Green New Deal.” It includes more details about what would be included in a future plan.

的resolution begins by heavily citing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)special report on 1.5C(SR15), laying out the impacts and damages associated with global warming of 1.5C and beyond by the end of the century.

的resolution calls for a 10-year national mobilisation to accomplish the following:

1. Building resilience against climate change-related disasters by funding community projects and strategies.
2. Repairing and upgrading infrastructure, including eliminating pollution and greenhouse gas emissions as much as technologically feasible.
3. Meeting 100 percent of the power demand through clean, renewable, and zero-emission energy sources, including dramatically expanding and upgrading existing renewable power sources and deploying new capacity.
4. Building energy-efficient, distributed, and “smart” power grids.
5. Upgrading all existing buildings and building new buildings to achieve maximal efficiency, with an emphasis onelectrification.
6. Spurring growth in clean manufacturing and removing pollution and greenhouse gas emissions from manufacturing and industry as much as is technologically feasible.
7. Working with farmers and ranchers to eliminate pollution and greenhouse gas emissions from the agricultural sector as much as is technologically feasible.
8. Overhauling transportation systems to eliminate pollution and greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation sector as much as is technologically feasible, including through investment in zero-emission vehicle infrastructure and manufacturing, clean, affordable, and accessible public transportation and high-speed rail.
9. Removing greenhouse gases from the atmosphere – in other words,negative emissions. It emphasises restoring natural ecosystems through the proven of low-tech solutions that increase soil carbon storage, such as preservation and afforestation.

的resolution includes a number of additional notable things, including calling for large public investments in the research and development of new clean and renewable energy technologies and industries. It also mentions the imposition ofborder adjustmentson carbon.的resolution suggests that there should be “accounting for the true cost of emissions”, though it is unclear the extent to which this implies support for a specific price on carbon.

的resolution remains vague on specifics, stating in many places that mitigation should be “as much as is technologically feasible” rather than setting specific targets. The one firm goal is complete decarbonisation of the power sector by 2030. Here, the resolution specifies “clean, renewable, and zero-emission energy sources” rather than the “100% renewables” mentioned in previous drafts.

Vox’s David Robertssuggests thatthis change avoids unnecessary conflict among supporters over what the future generation mix should be. He writes: “Now renewables advocates can go right on advocating for renewables, nuclear fans can go right on advocating for nuclear, and they can continue fighting it out on Twitter. But their fight doesn’t need to muck up the [green new deal]. The [green new deal] targets carbon emissions, which is the right target for a broad programmatic outline.”

At the same time the resolution was released, Ocasio-Cortezput out a factsheet交易需要一个有利的位置上issues than the resolution. For example,the factsheetsuggests that no new nuclear plants should be built and that carbon capture and storage should be a limited contributor to decarbonisation. However, other co-sponsors of the resolutionstated in a press conferencethat the factsheet is “not part of the resolution” and emphasised that “the resolution is silent on individual technologies”.

In his coverage of the Green New Deal, Roberts alsopoints outthat the resolution has a focus on Democratic party priorities beyond just climate mitigation, including language on environmental justice and prioritising jobs that pay a wage sufficient to support families.