Explainer: These six metals are key to a low-carbon future

The deployment of renewables and electric vehicles isexpectedto skyrocket as the world strives to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

These low-carbon technologies currently rely on a handful of key metals, some of which have been little-used to date. This raisesquestionsover whether enough of these materials can be mined to ensure a large-scale rollout. Others are concerned thatbottleneckscould appear, as metal output rises to meet demand, or that theenvironmental impactsof mining could undermine carbon savings elsewhere.

Carbon Brief takes a look at some of the metals attracting most attention and examines where they come from, the quantities available and whether they could pose risks to meeting the climate targets of theParis Agreement.

Which metals are needed for low-carbon technology?

Clean energy technologies often rely on certain key metals which will be needed if they are to continue to expand. Two metals in particular,lithiumandcobalt, have seen supply chain fears in recent years, although many other metals are used.

Lithium, a soft, silvery-white metal which is also the lightest in theperiodic table, is a crucial ingredient of lithium-ion batteries. These are used in everything from smartphones to electric vehicles (EVs),nowtheir biggest consumer. The lithium-ion battery is thebattery of choicefor most car makers, includingTesla,BMW,FordandNissan.

Cobalt, a silver-grey metal produced mainly as byproduct of copper and nickel mining, is another essential component of the cathode in lithium-ion batteries. It also has diverse uses inotherindustrial and military applications.

Nickelis another ingredient needed for batteries and is expected to form anever-largerproportion of future batteries. Nickel is already widely used elsewhere, notably in stainless steelproduction, and mines aredistributedamong many different countries, meaning there is less concern over its supply.

Manganeseis also used in batteries, as well asbeingan essential ingredient in steel and widely used elsewhere, such as inanimal feed.

Copperis used as aconductorfor wind power, as well as general wiring, motors and in coins. Both copper and manganese are among the most widely extracted metals in the world.

Rare-earth metals, also known as rare-earth elements (REEs), are a group of 17 chemically similar elements. Each has unique properties, making them importantcomponents从低能lighti一系列技术ng andcatalytic convertersto the magnets used in wind turbines, EVs and computer hard-drives.Neodymiumandpraseodymium, known together as “NdPr”, which are used in the magnets of electric motors, have particularly beenin the newslately, due to rising demand and prices.

Reports from both theUS Department of Energyand theEuropean Unionhave labelled REEs, cobalt and several others as critical materials, based on their importance to clean energy, high supply risk and lack of substitutes.

Many other metals are used to a larger or smaller extent in clean-energy production and low-carbon technology.Indiumandgallium, for example, areusedin the coatings of photovoltaic film and have also been identified by the EUreportas critical materials.

A World Bankreportreleased last year counted dozens of metals which could see a growing market with the rising use of wind, solar and batteries. The grid below, from the World Bank, shows the metals explored in its scenarios and their uses in different low-carbon technologies.

	Wind	Solar photovoltaic	Concentrating solar power	Carbon capture and storage	Nuclear power	Light emitting diodes	Electric vehicles	Energy storage	Electric motors
Aluminium	X	X	X	X		X		X	X
Chromium	X			X	X	X
Cobalt				X	X		X	X
Copper	X	X		X	X	X	X		X
Indium		X		X	X	X
Iron (cast)	X		X			X		X
Iron (magnet)	X								X
Lead	X	X			X	X
Manganese	X			X		X	X
Molybdenum	X	X		X	X	X
Neodymium (proxy for rare earths)	X						X
Nickel	X	X		X	X	X	X	X
Silver		X	X		X	X	X
Steel (Engineering)	X
Zinc		X				X

Matrix of metals and energy technologies explored in World Bank low-carbon future scenario study. World Bank 2017.

Of course, these metals will not only be used for low-carbon technologies, but everything fromsmartphonestoweaponry.

In his 2016 bookThe Elements of Power, David S Abraham argued that what he calls “rare metals” – those, such as cobalt and REEs, produced in hundreds or thousands of tonnes per year rather than millions of tonnes, such as copper – are now the base of the world’s modern industries, including the clean-energy industry. The world is fast becoming as dependent on these metals as it is on oil, he says. He writes:

“Today companies are using elements that scientists dismissed as mere impurities decades ago… We are now witnessing a fundamental shift in our resource demands. At no point in human history have we usedmoreelements, inmorecombinations, and in increasingly refined amounts. Our ingenuity will soon outpace our materials supplies.”

How much of these metals will be needed?

It is widely acknowledge that a swift ramp up of low-carbon technologies will be needed in order for the world to meet the Paris Agreement’sgoalsof limiting warming to “well below 2C” and tostrive for 1.5C.

这个低碳未来会看到强劲需求a wide range of base and precious metals, the World Bank report said. Alongside the usual suspects of cobalt, lithium and REEs, thisincludesaluminum, silver, steel, nickel, lead and zinc. The report said:

“It would be reasonable to expect that all low-carbon energy systems are more likely than not to be more metal intensive than high-carbon systems. In fact, all literature examining material and metals implications for supplying clean technologies agree strongly that building these technologies will result in considerably more material-intensive demand than would traditional fossil fuel mechanisms.”

A separate 2017reportfrom theUN Environment Programme(UNEP) had a similar finding. It calculated low-carbon technologies would need over 600 million tonnes (Mt) more metal resources up to 2050 in a 2C scenario, compared to a 6C scenario where fossil fuels use continues on its current path. However, it also said the 2C scenario would save more than 200bn cubic metres of water a year and use nearly 150,000 square kilometres less land overall.

It is impossible to pin down the balance of technologies – and, thus, metals – which will be used over the next 30 years. But some analysts have warned that there could be a shortage oflithiumandcobaltas the use of lithium-ion batteries in energy storage and EVs increases. There are also fears over a“boom and bust”cycle developing for REEs, such as neodymium.

In order to assess the possibility of a shortage, it helps to look at availabilityestimatesprovided by the US Geological Society (USGS) of more than 100 minerals and metals, including many of the metals key for low-carbon technologies.

Cobalt

The USGSputscobalt production in 2017 at 110 thousand tonnes (kt), with reserves of 7,100kt. This mean current extraction could continue for 65 years using current reserves. Cobalt consumption by the battery industry in 2016 was周围48kt, just over half of the total 94kt consumed for all products.

This consumption is expected to grow in the coming years. Metals supplier Darton Commodities hassaidit expects demand for batteries to reach 74kt per year by 2020. ConsultancyWood Mackenzieforecasts growth to 98Kt per year by 2022. Similarly,Caspar Rawles, a market analyst atBenchmark Minerals Intelligence,saidhis firm considers it will more than double to 127kt per year by 2025. This would mean cobalt demand from batteries alone would exceed current production.

Researchfrom commodities analystCRUfor Glencore, the world’s largest cobalt producer, has found that meeting theClean Energy Ministerialtargetof 30m electric vehicle sales by 2030 would require 314kt of cobalt per year by 2030 – over three times 2017’s demand for all uses. At this rate, current reserves would last 23 years.

不过,值得记住的是,储备are only a working inventory of how much of a mineral is thought to be economically extractable at the current time. This is very different to the total potentially extractable “resource”. New supplies of minerals will come from resources which become extractable as technologies and prices change, as well as from currently undiscovered supplies and recycling.

The USGS notes that copper reserves, for example, were estimated at around 280,000kt in the 1970s, but are now estimated to be 790,000kt, even though 520,000kt of copper has been produced since.

The world has 25,000kt of identified terrestrial cobalt resources, more than three times current reserves. Some of these could become economic to mine if demand increases. They are also rapidly expanding, almost doubling in the past five years from 15,000ktin 2012. The prospect ofdeep-sea miningof cobalt could reportedly open up over 120,000kt more (see below).

Lithium

For lithium, around 43kt were produced in 2017, according to the USGS, with 16,000kt of reserves. This means extraction at its current rate could continue for 372 years with current reserves.

Lithium demand is also expected to increase rapidly, however, driven by its use in batteries. Deutsche Bankthinkselectric vehicles, electric bikes and energy storage will together account for 58% of lithium demand in 2025, up from 15% in 2015. Goldman Sachsexpectstotal demand to quadruple by 2025.

Demand for lithium is relatively new, as is major exploration, and production hasrisen by70% over the past 10 years. Reserves are also rising, increasing from 4,100ktin 2007to 16,000kt in 2017. Identified resources have also risen from around 14,000ktin 2007to 53,000kt in 2017.Bloomberg New Energy Finance(BNEF) hasfoundlithium supply for batteries is “just not an issue”.

Nickel

Demand for nickel in batteries is alsoexpectedtoboomin the coming years. USGS data shows 2,100kt was produced last year, with 74,000kt of reserves. Extraction of current reserves could continue for around 35 years at this rate, and around 70 years for all known land resources, although further nickel resources are found on the ocean floor.

While there has been less concern over nickel shortages than for lithium or cobalt, Wood Mackenzie haswarnedsourcing nickel for EV technology will be a challenge as most new supplies coming on stream up to 2025 will be types of nickel unsuitable for use in batteries.

Copper

Copper, meanwhile, is already produced in large quantities. The USGS says around 20,000kt was produced last year, dispersed among several countries. Current reserves would last 40 years at this extraction rate, although resources are far larger. Low-carbon technologies are unlikely to be the only pressure on copper, although EVs and wind power do uselargeamounts of the metal compared to smartphones. One recent paperfoundtotal copper demand is likely to roughly quadruple by 2050.

Rare-earth elements

稀土元素钕等相对丰富the Earth’s crust, but difficult to find in concentrations that make them economic to mine. Extraction, which requires separating multiple different metals from a single deposit, isdifficultand expensive.

Around 130kt of rare-earth oxide (REO) were produced in 2017, the USGS says. Reserves sat at 120,000kt, or 923 years of current supply. The USGS did not given an estimate for resources, thoughotherresearch suggests these are rising rapidly. Concerns over the supply of REEs tend to relate more to the concentration of production in China, rather than actual scarcity. However, resources are thought to be widespread,includingin Europe, where most REEs were first discovered.

The World Bank report points out that intra-technology choices, such as the choice between onshore and offshore wind or between different types of solar PV, could affect metal demand as much as the scale of generation.

The demand for neodymium, for example, will be highly dependent on whether direct-drive wind turbines or geared models becomes more prevalent, it says.

Direct-drive technology, generally used for offshore wind, uses neodymium in its permanent magnets.Geared technology, meanwhile, largely used for the onshore turbines which currently makes up the bulk of installed wind power, does not use permanent magnets. Demand for neodymium from wind will, therefore, be highly dependent on which of these technologies prevails and to what extent.

Where do metals for low-carbon tech come from?

Scaled-up deployment of low-carbon technology will mean that several countries find their natural resources in increasingly high demand.

The map below shows the location of current production and reserves of three key metals needed for this transition: cobalt, lithium and REEs. Resources for each are substantially larger, as noted above.

Production and reserves for three key metals in low-carbon technology: cobalt, lithium and rare earths (REEs). *Lithium production data for the US has been withheld by the USGS since only one company produced the metal in the US in 2017. **Data not available for Thailand’s rare earth reserves. Source:USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2018.

As the top two maps show, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) dominates the current production of cobalt. It supplied more than half (58%) of total production in 2017, and also has half of the world’s known terrestrial reserves. Russia, Australia and Canada also produce cobalt, although each represents less than 10% of world supplies. Australia also has significant reserves.

Meanwhile, countries with a portion of the world’s 25,000kt of terrestrial cobalt resources include the DRC, Zambia, Australia, Cuba, Canada, Russia and the US. US resources are estimated at 1,000kt, nine times world production in 2017, although most are not currently economically extractable.

Additionally, large cobalt resources equal to 1,000 years of current production have been identified on the floorbeds ofthe deep seas, largely outside territorial waters. The high seas are also thought to be rich in other essential metals used in electronics, such as manganese and gold. Somefirmsare hoping to explore for these undersea materials, arguing it is a good alternative to terrestrial mining and itsassociated impactson local populations and landscapes. Butothersfear deep-sea mining could also have significant environmental consequences.

Biggest prize of all is not gold but COBALT. Key ingredient in batteries for electric cars, smartphones. We'll need shedloads of this stuff in coming yrs. Price is going thru the roof. And 90pc of the world's known cobalt resource is… under the sea 6/https://t.co/tekvLBf0tmpic.twitter.com/EgWMwAX9hu

— Ed Conway (@EdConwaySky)March 6, 2018

Lithium occurs in small quantities throughout theEarth’s crustandseawater, but is produced by mining hard rock mineral deposits or extracting lithium salts where they are found in high enough concentrations inbrine.

As the middle maps above show, Australia and Chile are the key current suppliers of lithium. Lithium reserves are slightly more widespread than cobalt, the largest being in Chile, China and Australia.

The so-called “lithium triangle” of Chile, Argentina, andBoliviatogether boasts half of the world’s 53,000kt identified lithium resources, although Bolivia currently has little in the way of reserves. The US, which withholds its production data from the World Bank, is estimated to have lithium resources of 6,800kt, but limited reserves.

China is by far the dominant force in REEs, supplying 80% of the 130kt produced last year, the USGS figures show. More is likely producedoff the books.

China holds around 44,000kt of rare earth reserves, around a third currently known reserves. It also dominates in the processing and supply chains of REEs. This has led some researchers tourgepolicymakers outside China to diversify their supply using new mining, which could take decades.

The only current major REE producer outside of China,Lynas, operates its Mount Weld mine in Australia. Brazil, Vietnam and Russia all have significant reserves. The US, which has produced no REEs since its only minefiled for bankruptcyin 2015, has comparatively small reserves of 1,400kt. This is still equal to over 10 years of current worldwide production, however. And other countries could catch up with China. Just this week, researchersconcludedthat vast REE deposits discovered in 2013 off the coast of Japan could meet global demand of some elements on a “semi-infinite” basis.

The spread of these so-called “strategic” metals, often in different places than those where fossil fuels are found, opens up interestingquestionsabout how geopolitics will be affected by the rapid rise of clean technologies. A new set of countries will find their natural resources increasingly in demand, with all the pros and cons which accompany this demand.

Some researchers havesaidan equivalent for renewables of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) could be formed for these newly prominent material producers. Othersarguethat newinternational resource governanceis needed to oversee responsible sourcing of minerals.

Do price rises mean the world is running short of key metals?

There havebeenconcernsover the prices of metals needed for low-carbon technology, with the price of cobalt,lithiumand evencopperon the rise in recent years, as the chart below shows (note the date ranges differ on each of these graphs, due to data availability).

Spot prices of several metals used in low-carbon technology: cobalt from 2010 onwards, lithium and neodymium from 2009 onwards, manganese ore from 2012 onwards, indry metric tonne units(dmtu), nickel and copper from 1990 onwards. Source: Bloomberg

The price of cobalt has more than tripled over the past two years, while lithium prices have close to doubled. Global miners are already “reaping higher profits” from rising demand for lithium due to EVs, according toBloomberg.

As cobalt is mainly mined as a byproduct of copper and nickel, higher prices willnot alwaysstimulate new supply as they might in other commodity markets. Only周围1% of cobalt was mined from primary cobalt mines in 2016.

The concentration of cobalt in the DRC has contributed to making it a resource of key concern to electric car manufacturers in recent years. As well as its highpolitical instability, around a fifth of the DRC’s cobalt is drawn out by artisanal miners working with their hands, withdocumented casesofchildrendoing this work. Indeed,schemesto trace “ethical cobalt” are emerging, while the Financial Times hasreported一些买家支付溢价可持续and traceable metal supplies.

The DRC has also recentlymovedto increase taxes and royalties on cobalt and plans to designate it a “strategic metal” under the country’s new mining code, despite international mining firmslobbyinghard against the new law. According to consultancyWood Mackenzie, the law has “the potential to seriously affect mining projects under way in the country”. Companies such as Canadian firmFirst Cobaltaremovingto increase production elsewhere in anticipation of a shortage.

In contrast to cobalt as a single commodity, the prices of lithium-ion batteries havedropped steeplyin recent years. Analysts at BNEF havecalculatedthat even a quadrupling of lithium prices would push up the cost of battery packs by only 1.6%, with almost no impact on the price of an electric car.

If lithium prices quadruple, the cost of finished battery packs would only go up 1.6%, and the sticker price of an electric car will see almost no impact. Some people may get rich off metals in the meantime, but it's not going to slow down the transition to electric carspic.twitter.com/RFEuC6kE9y

— Tom Randall (@tsrandall)December 4, 2017

BNEF has alsopointed outthat battery packs will require less than 1% of the known reserves of lithium, nickel, manganese and copper up to 2030, and 4% of cobalt reserves.

However, BNEF analysts have stillwarnedthat supply constraints for key materials could slow down a continuation of the battery cost declines seen in recent years.

China’s dominance in rare earth production alsofurrows eyebrowsin company boardrooms. Its move to restrict exports to Japan back in 2010causeda rise in prices, clearly seen in the neodymium spot-price graph above, as well as concern over continued access to these metals. But pricesdroppedback down after a few years, as new mines were opened and the pressure to reduce and recycle REEs, or find replacements for them, decreased. New projects in anumber of countriesare currently set to begin production in the coming decade.

Clean energy expertAmory Lovinshasarguedthis is “not how a durably scarce and valuable commodity behaves”, pointing to how the market responded by opening new mines and reducing or replacing REEs.

Could shortages hold up decarbonisation?

Even if current reserves and resources of a metal are sufficient for the foreseeable future, shortages could still be possible.

Logan Goldie-Scot能量储存分析主管BNEF告诉Cyabo亚博体育app下载arbon Brief the significant reserves of lithium mean issues with long-term demand are unlikely. But he adds:

“However, there may well be some short-term bottlenecks as producers must locate and develop new mines. There is also a range in quality of lithium and the additional processing of lower quality materials will take time and money. It is a similar point for cobalt, even when we look out to 2030. There are plentiful global reserves for other metals, such as nickel, manganese, aluminum, copper and graphite.”

Similarly, speaking recently to theTimes, Andrew Miller, analyst at data firmBenchmark Minerals, said that while there’s “no question of there not being enough [lithium] out there”, the question is if it will come in the time period Volkswagen or BMW need it.

There is also the question ofwho controls suppliesof key metals, which may not always be the same as the producer country and could have an impact on its availability to others.

As well as China’s near-monopoly on rare earth production detailed above, for example, it also currently dominates therefining processof cobalt material, producing more than 80% of the cobalt salts needed for batteries. In 2016,seven of the 10largest producers in the DRC were Chinese-owned. Canadian investment vehicleCobalt 27, which has stockpiled the largest holding outside of China,arguesconcentrated production and reserves in the DRC and Chinese control over most cobalt output are the two key issues facing cobalt supply.

Companies are increasingly making deals to ensure sufficient raw material supplies for their batteries. Justlast month,Glencore, the world’s largest commodities trader, announced a deal to sell one third of its cobalt production toa major supplierto Chinese firmCATL, thelargestbattery firm in the world.

Other firms, such asApple,TeslaandVolkswagen, are also seeking to buy cobalt directly from producers. In a recenttenderfor five years’ worth of Cobalt, Volkswagen said a secure and sustainable supply of raw materials for the lithium-ion battery will be “the key factor to become e-mobility market leader”.

More mining is not the only way to meet demand for metals. There is rising interest in theEUand elsewhere inrecyclingthemillion of tonnesof valuable materials discarded annually in high-tech products, for example. Oneyabo亚博体育app下载found recycling could meet 9% of global lithium demand by 2025. Some researchers even advocate novel techniques, such as “urban”biominingto extract rare earths from electronic wastes using microorganisms.

Meanwhile, somecompaniesarelooking intoreducing the cobalt content of batteries by increasing the nickel content. Replacements arealsobeingresearched,such asthe use of sodium and magnesium in place of lithium, oralternative batteriesbased on graphene, hydrogen fuel cells, or evenwater and table salt. BNEF has said new battery chemistries will probably shift todifferentsource materials after 2030.

What problems are caused by extraction?

Greenhouse gas emissions and other environmental impacts of extraction are clearly important considerations for materials used in low-carbon technologies. The World Bank report warns:

“Simply put, a green technology future is materially intensive and, if not properly managed, could bely the efforts and policies of supplying countries to meet their objectives of meeting climate and relatedSustainable Development Goals.”

Traditional commodities face significant challenges. Global copper ore quality isdeclining over time, for example, meaning copper miningrequiresexcavating twice as much ore as 10 years ago to yield the same amount of copper. This means more mine waste and greenhouse gas emissions, although research hasshowna shift to other available technologies and more efficient processes could go some way to addressing this impact.

Abraham’s book points out that the impact of extracting metals, such as cobalt and REEs, is far higher than traditional commodities in per tonne terms, due to the amount of chemicals and energy needed to refine them.

One recentstudy估计的温室气体(GHG)排放the production of lithium-ion batteries in China found around a 30% increase in GHG emissions from vehicle production compared with conventional vehicles, mainly due to the production of the cathode materials and wrought aluminum. But the authors also noted significant potential to lower this impact, with emissions already three times lower for US-made batteries.

Similarly, anassessmentof lithium-ion batteries released by theSwedish Environmental Research Institutelast year found GHG emissions from battery production were largely due to the manufacturing process, while mining and refining had a relatively small impact on the life cycle. The study said more efficient production and increasing use of low-carbon electricity would, therefore, likely be the best short-term improvement.

Overall, the lower emissions from running EVs compared to conventional vehicles have been found tomore than balance outthe higher emissions from their production, even with today’s US electricity mix.

Meanwhile, a 2015 UNEPreportfound “cradle-to-grave” GHG emissions of clean-energy sources are commonly 90-99% lower than for coal power. The report found wind, solar PV, concentrated solar-thermal, hydro and geothermal power all generated less than 50g of CO2 equivalent per kilowatt hour (gCO2e/kWh).

This compared with 800-1,000gCO2e/kWh for coal-powered generation and 600gCO2e/kWh from gas plants, which both dropped to a potential 200gCO2e/KWh with carbon capture and storage (CCS). For comparison, producing an average kWh of electricity on the UK grid currently emits周围240gof CO2e. The report concluded:

“The use of copper and functionally important metals [associated with low-carbon technologies] may pose some concerns in the long term, depending on opportunities for substitution which are not yet fully understood. Overall, replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy offers a clear opportunity to reduce environmental pollution from electricity generation.”

Environmental impacts of different ways of mining can vary. Lithium production fromhard mineral ore, for example, uses large amounts of energy and chemicals and involves significant land clearing. Production from brine ponds, where water is evaporated from high-lithium salty groundwater, isthoughtby some researchers to be preferable environmentally, but it still useslarge amounts of waterandtoxic chemicals, which can poserisks to water supply.

去年11月的这些问题进行了讨论t aconferenceon strategic materials for a low-carbon future at the University of Oxford. On the sidelines of the meeting,Aled Jones, director of theGlobal Sustainability Instituteat Anglia Ruskin University, told Carbon Brief he considers energy demand for mining could be made zero carbon. He said:

“You could run every single mine in the world on solar energy, and electric vehicles and electric mining. It’s not the way we do it at the moment, [but] you could completely decarbonise mining, as long as you capture some of the emissions that you get from mining.”

Mining accidents and spillages can also posethreatsto local communities, who may in turn oppose mines if they believe their health and environment is at risk.

Speaking to Carbon Brief at the Oxford materials conference last year,Jennifer Broadhurst, associate professor with the minerals to metals initiative at theUniversity of Cape Town, said mining communities are increasingly starting to associate mining with hardship. This has led them in some cases to reject new mining ventures and disrupt operations already in existence, she said. Some national governments are starting to respond to these concerns by instituting more stringent legislative measures, she added.