Highlights: Day one at the 1.5C conference on climate change in Oxford
Carbon Brief Staff
09.21.16Carbon Brief Staff
21.09.2016 | 6:11pmMore than 200 climate science and policy researchers, economists and social scientists have descended this week on Keble College in Oxford for atwo-day conferenceentitled “1.5 degrees: Meeting the challenges of theParis Agreement.” The conference has been organised by theEnvironmental Change Instituteat the University of Oxford.
Up for discussion is what kind of evidence the scientific community will need to produce to feed into aspecial reporton 1.5C, requested by the United Nations after Paris and due for publication in 2018.
High profile start
A public event on Tuesday night in Oxford town hall featured several of the architects of the Paris Agreement, ensuring the conference got off to an optimistic start.
Janos Pasztor, senior advisor to the UN Secretary-General, spoke about the policy community passing the baton to the scientists. He told the audience:
Laurence Tubiana, French ambassador for the climate negotiations, offered an insight into the diplomatic processes credited with the success of the Paris agreement. Carbon Brief说话to Tubiana afterwards about the questions scientists now need to answer about 1.5C. She told us:
Climate impacts
A key theme for day one at the 1.5C conference was understanding the impacts on natural and human systems of 1.5C of warming, and how they might compare to those at 2C. In the video below, Carbon Brief talks to:
- Prof Corinne Le Quéré, professor of climate change science and policy at the University of East Anglia and director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research.
- Dr Valérie Masson-Delmotte, senior scientist at the Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement and co-chair of IPCC Working Group I.
- Dr Friederike Otto, lecturer in physical geography at the University of Oxford and research fellow at Environmental Change Institute.
- Prof David Keith, Gordon McKay professor of applied physics and professor of public policy at Harvard University.
- Dr Joeri Rogelj, research scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA).
Before the science talks,Dr Anna Pirani, head of the IPCC’s Working Group 1 Technical Support Unit, reminded everyone of the short timeline they’re working to. To be assessed in the IPCC’s special report on 1.5C, papers must be submitted by October 2017 and accepted by April 2018.
Pirani also revealed the draft outline of the 1.5C report, drawn up at a scoping meeting in July. The proposed title and chapter headings will be submitted for approval in October and are, therefore, still subject to change.
Draft outline of 1.5C special report looks like this (shld be up on IPCC website today, we're told)#1point5pic.twitter.com/GzxPbFjwlQ
— Roz Pidcock (@RozPidcock)September 21, 2016
After a summary of the warming and impacts we’ve seen so far byDr. Valérie Masson-Delmotte, senior scientist at the Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement and Co-chair of IPCC Working Group I,Prof Richard Betts, head of climate impacts research at the Met Office Hadley Centre and chair in climate impacts at the University of Exeter, discussed the importance of climate information at a regional level, not just globally.
Interesting point from@richardabetts: hard to assess CO2 fertilisation when 1.5C cd be anything from 430ppm to 550ppm#1point5
— Oliver Morton (@Eaterofsun)September 21, 2016
Prof Sonia Seneviratne, from the Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science at ETH Zurich, raised an important question that the special report will need to address: are the impacts at 1.5C for extreme weather, biodiversity and crop yields, for example, sufficiently different than at 2C to make the more ambitious target worth pursuing?
Benefits of#1point5v 2°C warming must be balanced v mitigation impacts – esp. on land use and food production -Prof Seneviratne#biofuels
— Ben Abraham (@benabrahamnz)September 21, 2016
Prof Pete Smith, chair in plant & soil science at the Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, summarised what a pathway to 1.5C might mean in terms of “negative emissions”和土地使用。这包括点,得到other speakers this morning, that the special report will need to consider not only the direct impacts of climate change, but also the impacts of steeper mitigation. There will be more on Wednesday.
Pete Smith: We need to invest in test projects for negative emissions technologies "to see which ones have legs"#1point5
— Robert McSweeney (@rtmcswee)September 21, 2016
Rounding up the first morning session,Prof Yadvinder Malhi, head of ecosystems research at the Environmental Change Institute at the University of Oxford, touched on the risk of an additional 0.5C of warming for biodiversity. The higher the temperature, the greater the risk of reaching a tipping point from which an ecosystem can’t recover, he said.
Jason Lowe: Special report will need to address impacts of overshoot and temporary resilience#1point5
— Roz Pidcock (@RozPidcock)September 21, 2016
After a well-earned coffee break, the plenary session turned its focus towards the human impacts of a 1.5C warmer world.Dr Maarten van Aalst, director of theRed Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre, discussed the importance of considering people’s overall vulnerability – not just to climate change – and focusing on building resilience.
People facing#climatechange“have to confront choices that have to do with much more than climate alone”@mkvaalst#1point5
— Thomson Reuters Foundation News (@TRF_Stories)September 21, 2016
This point was picked up byDr Stéphane Hallegatte, a senior economist in the climate change group at theWorld Bank, who highlighted that development “is more important than targeted adaptation” for reducing the potential impacts of climate change.
@hallegatte: To reduce climate impacts on people, "good development" is more important than targeted adaptation#1point5
— Robert McSweeney (@rtmcswee)September 21, 2016
He also cautioned that a 1.5C limit shouldn’t affect the design of adaptation strategies as they need to account for the possibility of higher temperatures anyway – in case we miss the 1.5C goal.
Parallel sessions
The afternoon’s sessions saw attendees choose between four topics: mitigation options, the sensitivity of natural systems, human impacts of 1.5C, and implications for adaptation.
The mitigation session saw a series of presentations about emotive, sometimes controversial topics.Prof Alice Larkinat the Tyndall Centre in Manchester focused on aviation and shipping emissions and came to the stark conclusion that both sectors face potential unfeasible reductions in their emissions intensity if they are to “do their share” of staying within the 1.5C limit.
For aviation to do its bit for good chance of staying within 1.5C,@AliceClimatesays needs 20% intensity reduction PER YEAR#1point5pic.twitter.com/z8XDwRCBSY
— Leo Hickman (@LeoHickman)September 21, 2016
The session also included a number of presentations aboutnegative emissions technologiesand geoengineering.Henrik Karlsson ofBiorecrocountered the mood of the room by being very positive aboutBECCS(bioenergy and carbon capture and storage) arguing that it had already been proven at a commercial scale.
Let's just say that Henrik Larsson of Biorecro is *very* optimistic about negative emissions from BECCS#1point5pic.twitter.com/Sg4v5OJowr
— Leo Hickman (@LeoHickman)September 21, 2016
Dr David Keith, professor of public policy at the Harvard Kennedy School, concluded the session with a plea that the audience reassess their negative preconceptions about solar geoengineering.
I detest seemingly objective/scientific claims that hide the hard value choices, hard politics. Solar#geoengineeringis a hard choice.https://t.co/xedAx72bmr
— David Keith (@DKeithClimate)September 21, 2016
The natural systems session spanned a range of topics, from Antarctic sea ice to wheat production in Tunisia and reindeer in the Arctic tundra.
Dr Carl-Friedrich Schleussner从气候分析开始解释large majority of tropical coral reefs are at risk at 1.5C, whereas all will be at risk at 2C. Greater habitat disruption to grow bioenergy might mean that some impacts of 1.5C are worse for biodiversity than those at 2C, warnedDr Jeff Price, senior researcher at the University of East Anglia.
"0.5C will make a huge difference in the African region in terrestrial point of view" says@DrJeff Price#1point5
— Boi Tshwene (@BoiChaz)September 21, 2016
ProfBruce Forbesfrom the Arctic Centre at the University of Lapland reminded the audience thatregional warming in the Northwest RussIan Arctic already exceeds 1.5C, with consequences for reindeer feeding and survival.
Impacts at 2C not just a bit bigger than#1point5: potential for different sign of change in polar regions. Great talk by@emilyshuckburgh
— 1p5deg (@1p5deg)September 21, 2016
In the adaptation session, chaired by co-chair of IPCC Working Group IIDr Debra Roberts, presenters looked at the implications for coping with a 1.5C warmer world.
Prof Robert Nicholls, professor of coastal engineering at theUniversity of Southampton, started things off by looking at how sea level rise would affect the some of the world’s largest deltas. He described how limiting global temperature rise to 1.5C gives deltas more time to adapt to rising seas, but “does not avoid the [eventual] impacts due to the commitment to sea level rise which continues for centuries”.
Prof Robert Nicholls of@unisouthampton: 1.5C limits impact of sea level rise on deltas – especially beyond 2100#1point5
— Robert McSweeney (@rtmcswee)September 21, 2016
Nicholls was followed by a series of presentations taking us through the different sectors and facets of adaptation.Prof John Antlediscussed adapting agriculture and food systems for 1.5C, whileDr Mike Morecroft说话on building ecological networks to protect biodiversity.Prof Nijavalli Ravindranathtalked us through developing adaptation strategies through assessing vulnerability, andMeghan Baileypresented her PhD research on adaptation financing. Finishing the session wasPatrick Pringle, the deputy director of UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP), who discussed the tricky task of implementing adaptation actions.
Patrick Pringle: "We need to value the cement as much as the bricks." – bring together research, policy and practice#1point5
— Robert McSweeney (@rtmcswee)September 21, 2016
Day one rounded off with a final plenary discussion on the moral implications of the 1.5C goal.