《卫报》reports that negotiations are set to intensify at COP28, “with nations wrangling over whether to phase out or phase down fossil fuels”. It reports: “For the remaining five negotiating days…ministers will hold a series of meetings to try to break the impasse and present a text that sets out a roadmap for staying within a rise of 1.5C of global heating above pre-industrial levels.” It is COP28 president Sultan Al Jaber’s task to appoint pairs of ministers, each pair comprising a developed and developing country, the Guardian says, adding that “their task is to liaise and find compromises”.Reutersreports that, in a speech late on Wednesday, Al Jaber appealed to negotiators to “maintain momentum and achieve a punctual finish after what he said was a week of historic progress”. According to Reuters, he said: “What we have collectively accomplished only in a week is, in my view, nothing short of being historic. In just seven days we have demonstrated that multilateralism does actually work, it is alive and well.” The story cites Carbon Brief analysis noting that eight of the last 10 climate summits have run over by more than 24 hours.Climate Home Newsalso reports on the fight over fossil-fuel language in the negotiations, saying: “The global climate movement has come more single-minded than ever in its focus on a fast and fair fossil fuel phase-out. And it’s getting somewhere. A draft compromise text, for all its caveats, sticks with ‘phase out’ not ‘phase down’. But in the vast expanse of the Dubai Expo, that sense of purpose risks evaporating under the harsh desert sun. In a consensus-based process, petrostates could veto language that threatens their core business.” TheAssociated Pressalso reports that all eyes are turned to fossil fuel negotiations after COP’s official “rest day” on Thursday. Meanwhile,Politicoreports on a leaked document from the Saudi Arabian government suggesting that the nation has “concerns” about the lifecycle emissions associated with wind and solar power. [The carbon footprints from building wind and solar is negligible when compared to savings from avoiding fossil fuels,researchshows.]

Elsewhere at the summit,Reutersreports that government pledges for adaptation finance are falling short, with fears cash is instead being diverted to the new high-profile loss and damage fund. It reports: “At a meeting at the Dubai talks late on Monday, rich countries offered only $160m in contributions to the Adaptation Fund, barely half of its $300m goal this year for projects such as flood defences and early-warning systems. Several governments have mentioned the approval of that new fund among their reasons for offering less money for adaptation, Adaptation Fund head Mikko Ollikainen said.”BusinessGreenreports that concerns over the emergent technology carbon capture and storage are fuelling a “stand-off” at the summit. TheGuardiansums up the “highlights and lowlights” of COP28 so far, whileBBC Newsoffers five reasons to stay optimistic.NPRspeaks to Belize climate ambassador Janine Felson about how deals reached at COP28 could aid developing countries.

Azerbaijan may be the next country to host UN climate talks next year following peace talks with Armenia, which had previously vetoed the summit being held in Baku amid ongoing conflict between the two nations, Bloomberg reports. The outlet explains: “The leaders of the two countries held talks on Thursday, agreeing that Azerbaijan will release 32 Armenian servicemen captured after the 2020 war in Nagorno-Karabakh, while Armenia will release two Azerbaijani servicemen in return. As part of the talks, Armenia said it will drop its rival bid to host COP29 and instead support Azerbaijan to host the two-week event in Baku.” Under UN rules of rotating the climate presidency, the next summit is due to be hosted by an eastern European country, with every nation in the region having to agree on the location, Bloomberg explains. It adds that Russia said it would block any bid from a European Union country supporting Ukraine, leaving just Armenia, Azerbaijan, Serbia and Montenegro to choose from. The decision on where COP29 will be held should be made before the end of COP28, according to the article.Politicoalso reports the news with the headline: “Another win for oil states?”

Several prominent scientists from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) tell the Guardian that the UN climate science advisory process should be overhauled to allow researchers to make policy recommendations and oversee implementation. The Guardian says the intervention comes after the scientists learned ofallegationsCOP28主机Al Jaber计划使用峰会to strike oil and gas deals. Prof Sonia Seneviratne, an IPCC vice-chair and coordinating lead author since 2012, tells the publication: “At some point we need to say that if you want to achieve this aim set by policymakers then certain policies need to be implemented. As climate change becomes worse and worse, it is becoming more difficult to be policy relevant without being prescriptive.” For example, IPCC scientists should be able to call for a fossil-fuel phaseout, she says. Prof Julia Steinberger, a coordinating lead author on the mitigation chapter of the IPCC’s most recent assessment report, tells the Guardian: “Right now, not only is the IPCC prevented from making strong, clear, commonsense statements – like the need to urgently move away from fossil fuel use and investment – but many scientists have personally taken being ‘non policy prescriptive’ to be part of their communication in general, not just the IPCC’s. This self-silencing is counterproductive, in my opinion.”

The EU is set to give its members powers to block gas imports from Russia and Belarus nearly two years after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. The FT explains: “Any member state will be able to ban companies from Russia and Belarus from buying capacity in its gas pipelines and liquefied natural gas terminals, according to a draft legal text proposed by Brussels and seen by the Financial Times. The proposal could provide a basis for EU energy companies to get out of contracts with Russian gas providers without having to pay hefty compensation, according to a senior official of the bloc.” The FT notes that the EU still sources about one-tenth of its gas supply from Russia, after slashing dependency following Russia’s invasion.

Elsewhere, theFTreports that US crude oil production reached an all-time high in September, according to just-released figures. The FT explains: The added volumes have outpaced official forecasts and called into question claims of a US oil industry constricted by Wall Street or environmental regulations. They are causing difficulties for the OPEC+ oil cartel, which last week agreed to deepen cuts to its members’ own volumes in a bid to prop up faltering prices.The new supplies are also creating discomfort for the Biden administration, as US officials join a push to phase out fossil fuels at the UN climate talks in Dubai.” In addition, theDaily Telegraphreports that Australia’s biggest oil companies are “plotting a £42bn mega-merger as a wave of takeovers sweeps the fossil fuel industry”.

The outlook for 2024 by the UKMet Office表明,明年的全球平均temperature may rise higher than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels for the first time in modern history, reports the Press Association. The Met Office estimates that 2024 will finish with an average temperature between 1.34C and 1.58C above the period between 1850-1900 – the 11th year in a row that temperatures will have exceeded 1C, the newswire says. The article quotes Dr Nick Dunstone of the Met Office, who says: “The forecast is in line with the ongoing global warming trend of 0.2C per decade and is boosted by a significant El Nino event…Hence, we expect two new global temperature record-breaking years in succession and, for the first time, we are forecasting a reasonable chance of a year temporarily exceeding 1.5C.” The article adds: “Limiting warming to 1.5C is a key goal of the Paris Agreement, but as that is measured over a period of around 20 years, exceeding 1.5C for one year does not mean the target has been missed. Temperature fluctuates naturally and it is likely that in the years immediately after 2024 the annual average will fall below 1.5C again.”Sky NewsandNew Scientistalso have the story. For more on the Paris Agreement’s 1.5C limit and the likelihood of different emissions pathways keeping within it, see亚慱官网’s new interactive.

中国的state news agencyXinhuahas published a report saying that developed countries in the west, “including the US, [have for years] disregarded their historical responsibility on climate change in their highly industrialised development, marked by high energy consumption, heavy pollution and high carbon emission over centuries”. It adds that they “disregard their moral duty and legal obligation to compensate affected developing countries and coerce them into accepting irrational emission reduction plans”. (For more on historical responsibility for climate change, see Carbon Brief’s最近的分析yabo亚博体育app下载.)

Meanwhile, a report on China’s “pragmatic actions to address global climate change” has been released at the China pavilion at the COP28, reports Chinese outlet thePaper. The report, which has been jointly authored by the Chinese Academy of Environmental Sciences, the Public Environmental Research Center and Friends of the Earth Hong Kong, outlines 10 “practical actions” that China is taking, including “top-level design, local pilot projects, industry decarbonisation and nationwide participation”.

Separately, an editorial in the state-run newspaperChina Dailyargues that “nearly half of the world’s installed photovoltaic power generation capacity is in China, and more than half of the world’s new energy vehicles are driven in China”. It adds: “China…has spent decades going through the industrialisation process that western developed countries have gone through for hundreds of years. It will take the shortest time in history to go from its carbon peak to carbon neutrality.” TheConversationcarries a comment piece by Sibo Chen, assistant professor at Toronto Metropolitan University, who writes that, “although theSunnylands Statement[in which China and the US “reaffirmed their commitment” to work together to address climate change] is undoubtedly a step in the right direction, it must be accompanied by a focused dialogue on the true meaning of net-zero. Will a country lean towards net-zero achieved primarily by renewables, or one achieved by carbon capture and storage?”

Elsewhere, the state-run newspaperGlobal Timeshas published an article headlined: “Green engine: Chinese new-energy tech draws attention at COP28, empowers carbon reduction in [the] Middle East.”Reutersreports that the Chinese wind turbine maker Envision Energy CEO Lei Zhang says it is “easy to meet an international pledge made at the COP28 climate summit to triple renewables by 2030”. An initiative launched at previous climate talks, the Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETP), which is “to the replacement of coal plants with clean energy”, brings “opportunities” for his company, he adds.

In other China news, theFinancial Timessays that EU leaders met President Xi Jinping in Beijing yesterday, starting a summit during which they “plan to press China on industrial overcapacity”.France24reports that the EU said it had “discussed areas where the bloc could work with Beijing, most notably on artificial intelligence and climate change”. The state news agencyXinhuasays that “facing the growing challenges of artificial intelligence technology and climate change, the two sides have coordinated on various technological fronts, including AI governance, and clean energy initiatives”.Yicaireports that

the Chinese ministry of commerce says that the EU’s anti-subsidy investigation into electric vehicles “severely disrupts and distorts the global automotive industry supply chain, not conducive to the joint efforts of China and the EU, and even the entire world, in addressing climate change”.

Finally,Reuters发表了一篇评论专栏作家Gavin Maguire, who writes that “as the main motivations of the new coal reserve are to place a cap on local prices and reduce their overall volatility, the buildup of the reserve is likely to have a suppressing effect on China’s coal prices, which in turn may reduce the appeal of imports over time”.

Heavy rains in East Africa since October that have caused floods killing at least 300 people were made twice as intense by human-caused climate change, according to a new analysis covered by the New York Times. The World Weather Attribution analysis examined unusual levels of rainfall in Ethiopia, Somalia and Kenya, including the large Dadaab refugee complex in Kenya, the New York Times says. It reports that the scientists found that rainfall intensity was increased by both human-caused climate change and a natural weather phenomenon called the Indian Ocean Dipole [which is also beingaffectedby climate change]. According to the New York Times, analysis author Dr Joyce Kimutai told a press briefing: “As we continue to burn fossil fuels, we will definitely be experiencing more of these events.” Elsewhere,Deutsche Wellespeaks to people in Africa about how climate change has affected their lives.

Germany’s budget crisis is threatening planned government support for its domestic solar manufacturers due to last month’s constitutional court ruling banning the transfer of €60bn of unused debt to the climate fund, reports Reuters. The newswire explains that Germany

aims to produce 80% of electricity from renewables, but has become “increasingly dependent” on imported components such as solar cells from China and, therefore, has had to create monetary incentives for companies wanting to expand solar production capacity in Germany. In addition, subsidies to boost the installation of heat pumps – “a key pillar in the government’s attempts to wean German households off fossil fuels” – will also be hit by the court ruling, reports theGuardian. However, subsidies for electric vehicles are not affected, “prompting an angry response by environmental reform observers about the government’s priorities”.

Meanwhile,Die Zeitreports that German foreign minister Annalena Baerbock expects a “global commitment” to the gradual phase-out of fossil energy from the climate conference in Dubai. Renewables would have to be tripled by 2030 and energy efficiency would have to be doubled, said Baerbock before her departure to the climate conference, notes the newspaper. She is quoted as saying: “We will fight hard for this in Dubai and turn even the tiniest of cogs where necessary during the negotiations.”Clean Energy Wirereports that the German government has presented its first-ever climate foreign policy strategy to ensure that the country can make the most of its efforts to help limit the global temperature rise to 1.5C.

Finally,Table.Mediareports that the German Free Democratic Party, a member of the ruling coalition, wants major changes in climate policy, rejecting the European Green Deal in its current form. Instead, the party is relying on “e-fuels” for cars, hydrogen for heating and fusion technology for an “affordable energy supply”, notes the outlet.

一篇社论文章的经济ist argues that “protectionist” measures introduced through instruments such as the US Inflation Reduction Act and the EU Net Zero Industry Act could stymie climate action. It says: “Rather than micromanaging production, governments should unleash investment, by acting boldly to strip back permitting rules and ease the risk of projects in the global south. They also need to face up to the fact that protectionism frustrates their climate goals. It leads to lower returns, higher prices for power and more broken promises over decarbonisation.” The Economist also has articles titled “the renewables business faces a make-or-break moment” and “In Europe, green policies rule while green politicians struggle”.

Elsewhere, theWall Street Journalhas an editorial criticising US climate envoy John Kerry’s stance on fossil fuels. It says: “Give John Kerry credit for persistence if not realism. President Biden’s climate envoy keeps demanding the end of fossil fuels while the world continues to blow through his apocalyptic warnings.” In addition,Timemagazine has an article by Ani Dasgupta, president and CEO of World Resources Institute, on the “three myths propping up the fossil-fuel industry”.

On his Strong Message Here substack, climate campaigner and communicator Steve Akehurst uses public polling data to explore whether the UK Labour Party can “sell” its green prosperity plan. He writes: “Only 9% of voters, according to More in Common, currently have solid awareness of Labour’s green prosperity plan. If the electorate at large only hear[s] escalating Conservative anti-messages, it could be a problem. On the other hand, if they hear a confident, united Labour case first, the opposite is true.”

A record-breaking heatwave in northern China in June this year – which marked the first time that Beijing hit 40C for three consecutive days – was made more intense by human-caused climate change, a new attribution study finds. Using methods based on observations and climate models, the researchers find that both “consistently showed that the intensity of 2023-like three-day heatwave events has significantly increased by at least 1C (range 0.8-1.3C)”. In future, under intermediate emissions, projections suggest that the region would likely see at least five more events as severe as 2023 this century, which could be 2.9C hotter. Under very low emissions, the region would likely see one or two more events, which would be around 0.5C hotter. The findings “highlight the need for adaptation measures” to address such extreme heat, the authors conclude.