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India. Background image: robertharding / Alamy Stock Photo. R24CCG
Background image: robertharding / Alamy Stock Photo.
COUNTRY PROFILES
14 March 201916:57

The Carbon Brief Profile: India

Jocelyn Timperley

14.03.2019 | 4:57pm
Country profiles The Carbon Brief Profile: India

In the fifth article of a series explaining how large emitters are positioned to tackle climate change, Carbon Brief sets out India’s key policy developments, pledges and statistics…

印度是世界第三大排放国的格力nhouse gases (GHGs), after China and the US.

Coal power plants, rice paddies and cattle are major sources of emissions, which continue to rise steeply, although per-capita emissions remain well below the global average.

India is also very vulnerable to climate change, notably due to themelting喜马拉雅山脉的n glaciers andchangesto the monsoon.

The country has pledged a 33-35% reduction in the “emissions intensity” of its economy by 2030, compared to 2005 levels.

It is holding a general election this year throughout April and May, with polls projecting a minority win for current prime minister, Narendra Modi.

(Update 24/05/2019: After a lengthy election process, the BJP under Modi – who has often emphasised the importance of tackling climate change – secured a decisive victory towards the end of May. More than 600 million people voted of the 900 million who were eligible to take part in thelargest electionthat has ever taken place.)

Infographic by Tom Prater for Carbon Brief

Politics

India has the world’s second largest population, at1.3 billion。Its economy rankssixthglobally in terms of gross domestic product (GDP), just after the UK, and is the world’sfastest growingmajor economy. India’s population is预期to become the world’s largest by 2025, overtaking China and peaking at 1.7 billion in 2060.

Modifirst won officein May 2014. His party, the Hindu nationalistBharatiya Janata Party(BJP), was the first in 30 years to win an outright parliamentary majority. The BJP won 31% of the vote and 52% of seats; the centre-leftIndian National Congress(INC) came second with 19% of votes and 8% of seats.

Modi has portrayed India as a responsible participant in international climate politics. In 2018, hetoldworld leaders that climate change is the “greatest threat to the survival and human civilisation as we know it”.

India will begin its electionon11 April 2019, with the final ballot cast on 19 May and the results expected on 23 May. Around900 million peopleare eligible to vote. The election result ishugely complexto predict. However,opinion pollsin January-February 2019 generally show an expected minority or slight majority win for Modi’s party. The INC, led byRahul Gandhi– son and grandson of two former prime ministers – is expected to come second.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi with French President Emmanuel Macron at Hyderabad House, to co-chair the founding conference of the International Solar Alliance (ISA). 10 March 2018, New Delhi, India. Credit: Newscom / Alamy Stock Photo. M7BAF1

Prime minister Narendra Modi with French president Emmanuel Macron at Hyderabad House, New Delhi, on 10 March 2018. Credit: Newscom / Alamy Stock Photo.

India’sconstitution, adopted in1949, says the state shall “endeavour to protect and improve the environment” and “safeguard [India’s] forests and wildlife”. Its 2006National Environment Policyaimed to integrate environmental protection into the development process.

In 2002, India hosted the eighth formal meeting of theUNFCCC(United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) in New Delhi. This meeting adopted theDelhi Ministerial Declaration, which called for developed countries totransfer the technologyneeded to cut emissions and adapt to climate change to developing countries. Thisremainsa key priority for India at climate talks. The issue of how to fairly share up ambition, known as “股本”, alsocontinuesto be a strong concern for India.

Three-quarters of Indians are very concerned about global warming, according to a 2015pollfrom the Pew Research Centre, the highest share of all the Asian countries surveyed. In another 2017survey, 47% called climate change a “major threat” to their country, second only the threat of ISIS.

Around13% of India’s populationdoes not yethave access to electricity, whilemore than halfstill relies on traditional biomass (dung, wood, etc) for cooking. Modi hasrepeatedlypromisedto ensure all Indian homes are connected with electricity,most recentlyfor the end of March 2019, although the quality of power accessremains poorfor many.

Paris pledge

India is part of fournegotiating blocsat international climate talks. These areBASIC, a coalition of the four major emerging economies with Brazil, South Africa and China; the like-minded developing countries (LMDC); theG77 + China; and the Coalition for Rainforest Nations (CfRN).

Its GHG emissions in 2015 stood at 3,571m tonnes of CO2 equivalent (MtCO2e), according todatacompiledby thePotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research(PIK). Emissions increased over three-fold since 1970.

India’s per capita emissionsstood at2.7tCO2e in 2015, around a seventh of the US figure and less than half the world average of 7.0tCO2e. (See “note on infographic” at the end of this article for details on use of 2015 data).

Indiaratifiedthe Paris Agreement on 2 October 2016, almost exactly a year after it submitted itsclimate pledge, or “nationally determined contribution” (NDC), for theParis climate talks

The pledge is for a 33-35% reduction in emissions associated with each unit of economic output (“emissions intensity”) by 2030, compared to 2005 levels. Carbon Briefyabo亚博体育app下载at the time found India’s emissions could increase 90% between 2014 and 2030, even if the pledge is met.

Glossary
Capacity vs Generation:Capacity is the potential for generation of energy measured in watts (or kilowatts, etc), whereas generation is the actual energy amount generated measured in watt-hours (or kilowatt-hours, etc). A power station with…Read More

India also aims for 40% of its installed electricity capacity to be renewable or nuclear by 2030.

It further outlines plans to increase tree cover to create an additional cumulativecarbon sinkof 2,500-3,000MtCO2e by 2030 – roughly on a par with its total emissions across one year.

The pledge says India’s goals represent the “utmost ambitious action in the current state of development” and criticises the “tepid and inadequate” response of developed countries to global warming. “India, even though not a part of the problem, has been an active and constructive participant in the search for solutions,” it says.

India is clear that implementation of its pledge will depend heavily onclimate finance,technology transferandcapacity buildingsupport from developed countries. In total, itestimatesit will need at least $2.5tn up to 2030, from both domestic and international funds.

India’s NDC is consistent with the2C goalof the Paris Agreement, but not the1.5C limit, according toClimate Action Tracker(CAT), an independent analysis of climate pledges produced by three research organisations. However, the top end of India’s policy range is1.5C compatible, says CAT.

India is now on track to overachieve its Paris targets, after adopting its finalNational Electricity Plan(NEP) in 2018, says CAT.

The country could achieve its 40% non-fossil power capacity target more than a decade early, through theuseof hydroelectricity and nuclear power, adds CAT. India’s emissions intensity in 2030 will be around 50% below 2005 levels, CAT projects, far ahead of the 33-35% target.

A “barefoot” solar engineer from Tinginaput, India, passes on her skills to other villagers teaching them how to make a solar lamp. Credit: Abbie Trayler-Smith / Panos Pictures / Department for International Development. (CC BY-NC-ND 2.0)

A “barefoot” solar engineer from Tinginaput, India, passes on her skills to other villagers teaching them how to make a solar lamp. Credit: Abbie Trayler-Smith / Panos Pictures / Department for International Development.

A less rosy assessment comes fromClimate Transparency, a research and NGO partnership which aims to spark ambitious climate action. ItsaysIndia’s NDC is compatible with limiting temperature rise to below 2C, but that current (2018) policies fall short of this.

The Indian government is considering long-term growth strategies for 2030-2045, which would “decouple” carbon emissions from economic growth, says CAT. India hasindicatedit may be willing to increase its climate pledge in 2020. However, ithas notyet translated the Paris Agreement goals into domestic law.

India published itsNational Action Plan on Climate Change(NAPCC) in 2008, split into eight missions on diverse aspects of climate mitigation and adaptation policy. Each of the eight missions is discussed in the relevant sections, below.

India’s states are also required to producestate climate action plans。Some of these include emissions reduction commitments, e-mobility policies or solar and wind capacity quotas.

Coal

India is the world’ssecond largestcoal consumer after China, having overtaken the US in 2015.

Moreover, Chinese coal use hasplateaued, meaning India could largely determine the global trajectory for the fuel. Many analystsexpectrapid growth in India to drive increases in global demand over the next few years – though this is expected to remain below apeak in 2014

Coal has fuelled the rapid growth in Indian electricity use and its coal fleet hasmore than tripledin size since 2000. In 2017, coal generated 76% of India’s electricity, as shown in the chart below (black area).

Electricity generation in India by fuel, 1985-2017 (Terawatt hours). Source:BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2018。Chart by Carbon Brief usingHighcharts

As ofJanuary 2019, India has 221 gigawatts (GW) of operatingcoal plants。This is the world’s third largest fleet, with 11% of global capacity, according to theGlobal Coal Plant Tracker。Another 36GW is being built and a further 58GW is at earlier stages of development. Thispipelineof new plants is rapidly drying up, however, havingshrunkby more than a quarter since last year and more than five-fold since 2014.

The government currentlyprojectsthere will be 238GW of coal capacity in 2027. An earlierdraft NEPhad no plans for coal expansion before 2022, bar the 50GW already being built. However, the final version included more than 90GW of planned coal-fired capacity, which somearguenow risks becoming “stranded assets”. Abandoning plans to build new coal-fired plants could make India’s policies 1.5C compatible, says CAT.

There isongoing debateabout the extent to which new coal will actually get built in India, as well as how often existing plants will run, givenfalling costsfor renewables andlower-than-expectedgrowth in electricity demand. Forecasts for Indian coal demand growth have beenrepeatedly revised downand onerecentanalysis said a large proportion of the pipeline of new coal plants could be cancelled.

There isconcernin India over thehealth impactof coal plants. One in every eight deaths in India is due to air pollution, according to a recentreportin theLancet Planetary Health, while India is home to一半of the world’s 20 most polluted cities. The falling cost of solar power and batteries is also having asignificant impacton the sector.

Coal being sorted by size and quality, Meghalaya, India. Credit: National Geographic Image Collection / Alamy Stock Photo. EB4DH0

Coal being sorted by size and quality, Meghalaya, India. Credit: National Geographic Image Collection / Alamy Stock Photo.

In 2015, Indiaset new emissions standardsfor air pollution from coal plants for compliance in 2017, with looser standards for older plants. However, the standards werenot complied withand India’s supreme court has now extended the deadline for meeting them to 2022.

India is thesecond largestcoal producer and importer, after China.Coal India, the national coal mining company andlargestcoal producer in the world, accounts foraround 84%of domestic output. India hasprovencoal reserves ofaround98bn tonnes, or 9.5% of the world total, again second only to China.

The governmenthopesto end imports, whichcomefrom Indonesia, South Africa and Australia. It has atargetfor Coal India to reach 1,000Mt of production by 2019-20, up from 650Mt in 2018-19, although timelinemaybe relaxed.

Indiasaysit needs to use coal to secure “reliable, adequate and affordable supply of electricity”, but that it has also takenstepsto improve the efficiency of its coal plants.

In 2010, it introduced acoal “cess” (tax). Thiscollected$12bn from 2010-2018. It is预期tobring in $1bn more in 2019 and 2020. However,subsidiesfor coal also remain high, at $2.3bn in 2016,largelyas tax breaks to the mining sector.

Coalmakes upalmost half of local revenues in some states in India, meaning a move away from it would require policies to ensure a “just transition” for coal workers. There isreportedlylittle discussionon this in India. However, a majorvocational programmelaunched in 2015, to boost youth employment, has renewables as a目标行业

Interactive map of historical and planned coal power plants in India

Low-carbon energy

India isnotablefor its rapid expansion of renewables in recent years. In 2017, renewableinvestmentandnew capacitytopped fossil fuels for first time. However,only15.5% of India’s electricity came from renewables in 2017, including 9.1% from large hydro.

Rapidly fallingsolar PV prices mean coal-based power isfalling out of favourwith electricity distributors. However, as the penetration of renewables in the grid increases, new policies, such as smart grids, will beneededto adapt to the variable supply.

Gujarat Solar Park, in Gujarat, India, in 2013. It now has an installed capacity of 1637 MW. Credit: Ashley Cooper / Alamy Stock Photo. DRMTM7

Gujarat Solar Park, in Gujarat, India, in 2013. It now has an installed capacity of1637 MW.Credit: Ashley Cooper / Alamy Stock Photo.

Overall, subsidies to renewables in India increased from $431m in the 2014 financial year to $1.4bn in 2016, theInternational Institute for Sustainable Development(IISD)says。Support to coal, oil and gas was still around six times this in 2016, IISD notes.

India used itsElectricity Actback in 2003 to begin promoting renewable electricity. In 2015, itseta goal to install 175GW of renewable energy capacity by 2022, consisting of 100GW solar, 60GW onshore wind,10GW bioenergy and 5GW small hydro. This could replace roughly 70GW of coal, according to a亚慱官网guest post last year. India’s total current capacity, including fossil fuel and low-carbon plants, isaround 350GW

In June 2018, India’s power minister Raj Kumar Singhsaidhe expects India to have built or commissioned all 175GW by March 2020. Renewables reached72GWby September 2018.

Singh also said in 2018 that he countrynow hopesto reach 225GW renewables by 2022. However, this target may be due to the governmentgivinglarge hydropower the status of being “renewable”. India’s most recentNEPprojects that 275GW renewables will be installed by 2027.

Its2016 revised Tariff Policyobligespower distributors and some large electricity users tobuy a proportionof their energy from renewable sources. It also waives inter-state transmission charges for solar and wind energy.

India launched its “National Solar Mission” in 2010, one of the eight NAPCC missions. Its original target was 20GW solar by 2022, but this was increased in 2015 to 100GW. Rooftop solaris supposed toaccount for 40% of this.

India alsoplans2 gw的离网太阳能,到2022年,包括20m solar lights in rural areas.

By August 2018, 23GW of solar had been installed or commissioned, according to India’s recently submitted biennialreportto the UNFCCC. It is building many of the world’sbiggest solar parks

However, short-term financial uncertainty due to changing taxes on solar and tariff renegotiations could mean India misses the 100GW target,saysconsultancy firmWood Mackenzie

India is thefourthlargest wind power globally, after China, the US and Germany. Around 34GW of onshore wind had beeninstalledby mid-2018, triple the level seen a decade ago. India is usingauctionsto reach its 2022 wind target.

Wind turbines near Kanyakumari in Tamil Nadu, India. Credit: dbimages / Alamy Stock Photo. AX6FAM

Wind turbines near Kanyakumari in Tamil Nadu, India. Credit: dbimages / Alamy Stock Photo.

The price of solar hasfallen自2014年以来近三分之二,而价格啊f onshore wind has halved, India’s biennial report says.

Indiaalsoaimsto install 5GW of offshore wind by 2022 and 30GW by 2030.Nonehas yet been installed, however.

India’s renewable energy potential is around 1,100GW for commercially exploitable sources, the biennial report says. This includes 300GW wind and 750GW solar power. The country could integrate 390GW of low-cost wind and solar generation into its grid by 2030,accordingto the Climate Policy Initiative (CPI).

India’s climate pledge notes that around 70% of its population depends on traditional biomass energy, which is inefficient and causes high levels ofindoor air pollution。India is promoting the use of biomass to generate electricity instead, which it says is cleaner and more efficient. India is targeting 10GW of such bioenergy by 2022 and hadalready reached9GW in 2018.

Indiahas around 4.5GWof small hydro (plants below 25MW), against a 5GW target for 2022. Including large hydro, capacity sat at 45GW in 2018, up from 30GW in 2005. India’s climate pledge says it will “aggressively pursue development of the country’s vast hydro potential”.

India’s government views nuclear power as a “safe, environmentally benign and economically viable” source of electricity, according to its 2015 climate pledge. Itcurrentlyhas 6.8GW of nuclear capacity andtargetsa nine-fold increase to 63GW by 2032. However, there is ongoingdebatein the country on theprosandconsof nuclear energy.

India also has one of the world’slargest reservesof thorium – seen as a safer alternative to existing nuclear fuels – and has along-term interestin experimental thorium reactors. However, substantial generation isunlikelyuntil at least the 2050s, if at all.

Energy efficiency

India has longprideditself on its energy efficiency andemissions intensityachievements.

Its 2001Energy Conservation Actestablished theBureau of Energy Efficiency,它的任务是with reducing the energy intensity of the economy.

Indiasaysit is on track to meet itsvoluntary goalof cutting emissions intensity 20-25% by 2020, compared to 2005 levels. However, it also notes how little energy is used by the average Indian citizen, compared to those in other countries.

In 2010, India launched itsNational Mission for Enhanced Energy Efficiency(NMEEE), another of the eight NAPCC missions. Thistargetsan eventual 20GW in avoided electricity generating capacity and 23m tonnes of fuel savings per year.

Bricks lined up to dry at a brick manufacturing facility in Amritsar, Punjab, India. Credit: GURPREET SINGH / Alamy Stock Photo. JMWXEX

Bricks lined up to dry at a brick manufacturing facility in Amritsar, Punjab, India. Credit: GURPREET SINGH / Alamy Stock Photo.

The market-basedPerform, Achieve and Trade(PAT) scheme is its main initiative. This limits the consumption of energy-intensive industries, including thermal power plants, iron and steel, andcement。Overachievers cansell their energy saving certificatesto those that have fallen short.

Its first cycle led to savings of 31MtCO2e between 2012 and 2015, the governmentsays, which is around 1% of India’s current annual emissions. The scheme has beenextendedseveral次覆盖更多和more sectors.

Other NMEEE schemes include support formore efficientappliances, such asceiling fans,encouragementfor financiers to engage in energy efficiency and the use offinancial instruments, such aspartial risk guaranteesandventure capital, to support energy efficiency.

India also has anational smart grid mission, arating systemto evaluate the energy performance of buildings andanotherfor small industries to support more environmentally friendly manufacturing.

It recently released a newaction planto cutcooling energy requirements– asignificantdriver of electricity demand growth – 25-40% by 2038. The plan also aims to cut refrigerant demand by 25-30% by the same year.

The governmentaimsto replace India’s 14m conventional street lights with LEDs by 2019. It is alsosubsidisingthe rollout of LEDs in homes, with 312m distributedso far

Transport

India currently has the world’sfifthlargest car sales. These are expected togrowwith rising incomes and rapid urbanisation, with strong implications for globaloil demand

The governmentpromotesthe uptake of electric vehicles (EVs), although so far India hasonly260,000 – including two-wheelers and hybrids – and, overall,only 0.6%销售电动汽车。充电站的推出remains low

It also hasaround 1.5melectric rickshaws, although these aretypically usedonly for short journeys.

Electric Rickshaw carrying villagers at Mangalbari bustee, Chalsa in Jalpaiguri district of West Bengal, India. Credit: Biswarup Ganguly / Alamy Stock Photo. R700AX

Electric rickshaw carrying villagers at Mangalbari bustee, Chalsa in Jalpaiguri district of West Bengal, India. Credit: Biswarup Ganguly / Alamy Stock Photo.

In 2011, India set up itsNational Mission for Electric Mobility, which aimed to promote electric vehicle (EV) and hybrid manufacturing. In 2017, then-power minister Piyush Goyal said petrol and diesel car sales shouldend by 2030。But the government has sincerowed backon this aim,now targetinga 30% share of sales for EVs by 2030. It alsoaimsfor all new urban buses to be fully electric by 2030.

In 2015, India launched itsFAMEscheme to subsidise electric and hybrid cars, mopeds,rickshawsand buses. This was recentlyextendedwith a fresh $1.4bn over three years. Of this,$1.2bnis earmarked for subsidies and $140m for charging infrastructure.Several individual stateshave also rolled out policy initiatives to support EVs.

Indiafinalisedits first passenger vehicle fuel efficiency standards in 2014. These entered force in 2017 and will be tightened in 2022, though even then they will beless stringentthan current standards in the EU.

Its 2009national biofuels policyhad an “aspirational” target to blend 20% biofuels into the diesel and petrol mix by 2017. However, India hasfallen well shortof these targets, so far reaching only around 2% bioethanol and 0.1% biodiesel blend in 2018. Itupdatedits biofuels policy in 2018, proposing a 20% blend of bioethanol and 5% of biodiesel by 2030.

India’s railway system is thefourth-largest in the worldin terms of rail track length. It is second only to China in terms of rail passenger activity, with this设置为grow more than any other country, tripling by 2050.

Around half of India’s conventional rail tracks are electrified, although its firsthigh-speed lineis still under construction. Athirdof India’s land freight is carried by rail, a high proportion by global standards, with coal by far the main commodity.

India plans to increase the share of railways in total land transport from 36% to 45%, its climate pledge says, including through development ofdedicated freight corridors

A coal train passes through a station in Jaipur, India. Credit: Sandra Foyt / Alamy Stock Photo. M4W32A

A coal train passes through a station in Jaipur, India. Credit: Sandra Foyt / Alamy Stock Photo.

Aviationonly represented1% of India’s emissions in 2014, well below the world average, but itsrapid expansionmeans this has already likely increased. India has the world’sfastest growingdomestic aviation market, with a 19% rise seen last year alone. Itaimsto construct around 100 new airports in the next 10-15 years and is设置为becomethe world’s third largest market by 2020. Passenger numbers for domestic and international flights have already doubled since 2010 andcouldtriple to 520 million by 2037.

India is asignatorytoCorsia, the UN aviation emission offset scheme, although it hasnot signed upfor the voluntary pilot phase set to begin in 2021.

Its climate pledge outlines plans to promote coastal shipping andinland water transport, due to their fuel efficiency and cost effectiveness.

Oil and gas

India relies on large amounts of oil, whichmade up29% of total energy consumption in 2017. Its oil demand isrising fastand couldmore than doubleby 2040.This means itcouldsoon overtake China as the top driver of global oil demand growth. However, its own oil production isfalling

The government has provided largeconsumption subsidiesto both oil and gas. Between 2014 and 2016, subsidiesfellby almost 75% to $6.8bn, due toreformsand fallingoil prices。Further reforms areongoing

India hashighlightedits use of subsidy cuts and petrol and diesel tax rises to address climate concerns. For example, a“Give it Up”campaign launched by the Indian government encourages more affluent citizens to voluntarily give up theirsubsidyforLPG cooking gas

However, price changes in fuels such as kerosene – widely used for lighting and cooking in India – could have largeimpactson those without access to electricity.

Diesel consumption is预期to rise, supported by large government spending onroad-building,

Gas hasnever playeda prominent role in India’s energy mix, making uponly 6%of energy consumption in 2017. Indiacurrently importsaround half its gas, largely fromQatar, theUS, Australia andRussia

However, gas consumption isrisingin India, although its higher price means itstrugglesto compete with coal and fuel oil. The governmentaimsto more than double the share of gas in the energy mix to 15% by 2022,citingthe environmental benefits of adopting it as a “cleaner fuel”. Domestic production is low and India will likely continue to be highly reliant on imports, despite the “substantial potential” of itsdomestic gas and oil reserves

A parliamentarypanelrecentlyconcludedthat more than half of the country’s 25GW of gas power plants had been “stranded” by a lack of domestic gas and the high price of imports. India hasreportedlyconsidered “emergency stockpiles” of gas, similar to strategic oil reserves.

Agriculture and forests

Agriculture is responsible foraround16% of India’s GHG emissions. Of this, 74% is due to methane produced from livestock – largely cows and buffalo – andrice cultivation。The remaining 26% comes from nitrous oxide emitted fromfertilisers

Workers in rice paddy fields, Kashmir, India. Credit: robertharding / Alamy Stock Photo. B5A3T8

Workers in rice paddy fields, Kashmir, India. Credit: robertharding / Alamy Stock Photo.

Nearlytwo-thirdsof the population rely on farming as their source of livelihood. Indiahas15% of the global cattle population, with around 300m cows and buffalo in 2014. It produces 19% of the world’s milk.

India will also need to substantially increase food grain production to feed its growing population, its climate pledge says. But droughts and floods are “frequent” and the sector is “already facing a high degree of climate variability,” it adds.

India’sNational Mission for Sustainable Agriculture(NMSA), another of its eight NAPCC missions, aims to tackle agricultural emissions and enhance food security.

The country’s many initiatives include promotion of lower methane emissionrice production,作物多样化away from rice,chemical-free farmingandsoil healthpilot项目。一项政策介绍in 2015 madeneem coating of ureacompulsory to reduce nitrous oxide emissions.

Irrigation using highly inefficient water pumps accounts foraround 70%of the energy consumption of agriculture. India hasinstalled200,000 solar water pumps – about 1% of the country’stotal 21m, withanother 2.5mplanned.

India’s forest cover has increased in recent years, its climate pledge says, becoming a net CO2 sink. A recentstudyfound India accounted for 7% of the global net increase in leaf area from 2000-2017.

Its long-term goal is to bring 33% of its area under forest cover – some 109m hectares – up from 24% in 2013 (79m hectares).

A herd of Indian cows near Mount Abu hill in Rajasthan, India. Credit: Kailash Kumar / Alamy Stock Photo. PG4NFB

A herd of Indian cows near Mount Abu hill in Rajasthan, India. Credit: Kailash Kumar / Alamy Stock Photo.

Anothergoalis to absorb 2,500-3,000MtCO2 by 2030 throughadditional forest and tree cover。According to CAT, over half of this target could be achieved by theGreen India Mission, launched in 2014, whichaimsto expand tree cover by 5m hectares and increase the quality of another 5m hectares of existing cover in 10 years. India’s government also offersincentivesfor state action to increase forest cover bylinking itto funding allocations.

However,some argueIndia’s data exaggerates its true forest cover and masks ongoing deforestation.

Impacts and adaptation

India dedicates a large part of its 2015 climate pledge to outlining current and expected adverse impacts on the country. It says:

“Few countries in the world are as vulnerable to the effects of climate change as India is with its vast population that is dependent on the growth of its agrarian economy, its expansive coastal areas and the Himalayan region and islands.”

In its biennial report, it similarlypoints outit isalready highly vulnerableto natural disasters, such as floods, droughts and cyclones, with these risks compounded by changing demographics and socio-economic conditions.

India’s annual mean temperature has alreadyrisenby around 1.0C since 1850.

The countrycouldsee $1.2tn of “lost GDP” in total, plus lower living standards for nearly half its population by 2050, compared to a scenario with no climate change, according to a 2018World Bankstudy。The losses would be due to rising temperatures andchanging monsoon rainfall patterns, the study says..

The Indus river flowing through the Ladakh range of the Himalayas. Credit: Parvesh Jain / Alamy Stock Photo. MMHB4G

The Indus river flowing through the Ladakh range of the Himalayas.
Credit: Parvesh Jain / Alamy Stock Photo.

The Himalaya mountains, which form the most important concentration of snow outside the poles, are one particularly vulnerable part of India and the wider South Asia region. The glaciers are acritical water sourcefor 250 million people who live in the region. A further 1.65 billion people in India and seven other countries rely on the major rivers that flow from it.

A majorreportreleased earlier this year found rising temperatures will melt at least a third of the region’s glaciers by 2100, even if average global temperature rises are limited to 1.5C.

India is also vulnerable to increases in vector-borne diseases, such asmalariaanddengue, which couldbothseeincreasesdue to climate change.

Heatwaves are also expected to be an issue, with 600 million people currently in locations that could become moderate or severe hotspots by 2050, according to theWorld Bank。India’s largely agricultural workforce wasalreadysignificantly impacted by extreme heat in 2017, according to theLancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change

Indiacouldsee significant sea level rise, affecting the river water systems that hundreds of millions rely on for food. Its 1,238 islands are alsoat risk

The country’sdisaster management actcame into force in 2005. This made no explicit mention of climate change, but aimed to move from a “response and relief” approach to “prevention-mitigation and preparedness”. In 2016, India launched adisaster management plan, which integrates the principles of the Paris Agreement alongside other global disaster risk reductionframeworks

India has dedicated one of its eight NAPCC missions toprotecting the Himalayan ecosystem。Another two missions focus onwaterandresearch and development

Its most recent National Communication report under the UNFCCC – which includes an assessment of vulnerability and adaptation – wassubmittedback in 2012.

气候融资

India has long put a keyemphasison the need for climate finance and technology transfer from developed to developing countries. Its climate pledge notes:

“[O]ur efforts to avoid emissions during our development process are also tied to the availability and level of international financing and technology transfer since India still faces complex developmental challenges.”

India’ssaysit will cost at least $2.5tn to implement its climate pledge,around71% of the combined required spending for all developing country pledges.

India received by far the highest level of single-country funding ($725m) approved by multilateral climate funds in absolute terms from 2013 to 2016, according to Carbon Briefyabo亚博体育app下载。The majority was from theClean Technology Fund(CTF) for renewable projects. However, per-capita funding was relatively low, at just $0.56 per person..

A monsoon hits Kolkata, India, 7 July 2017. Credit: Dipayan Bose / Alamy Stock Photo. JTYWCR

A monsoon brings flooding to Kolkata, India, 7 July 2017. Credit: Dipayan Bose / Alamy Stock Photo.

On a wider level, India received on average $2.6bn per year in 2015 and 2016 in climate-related development finance, according to Carbon Briefyabo亚博体育app下载ofOrganisation for Economic Co-operation and Development(OECD) data.

India also has several domestic climate finance initiatives. As well as money spent through its eight national missions, its coal cess hasso farcollected $12bn, with proceeds used to finance clean energy,albeit not exclusivelySeveraladaptationprogrammes have also been allocated government funding.

Note on infographic

Data for energy consumption comes fromBP Statistical Review of World Energy 2018。Greenhouse gas emissions up to 2016 come from combining emissions data compiled by thePotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research(PIK).

The graph showing emissions by sector comes from combining two datasets. Values for methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and fluorinated gases cover all sectors, including LULUCF, and come from the PIK primap databasev2.0。Values for GHG emissions from LULUCF also come from the PIK primap database, however these are only available to 2015, and from the earlierv1.2of the database.

This combined PIK primap database v1.2 and 2.0 data for GHG emissions in 2015 also shows India has the world’s third largest greenhouse gas emissions (inc LULUCF). India’s pledge to reduce the “emissions intensity” of its economy 33-35% by 2030, compared to 2005 levels, comes from itsNDCsubmitted to the UN in 2015. Its aim for 40% of installed electricity capacity to be renewable or nuclear by 2030 also comes fro this pledge.

Per capita emissions in 2015 come from combining above 2015 figure for GHG emissions and India’s population in 2015 from theWorld Bank

来自于剩余的值EDGARCO2 emissions database, downloaded from the websiteOpenClimateData。傅中描述的埃德加的类别ll are as follows: Buildings (non-industrial stationary combustion: includes residential and commercial combustion activities); Transport (mobile combustion: road and rail and ship and aviation); Non-combustion (industrial process emissions and agriculture and waste); Industry (industrial combustion outside power and heat generation, including combustion for industrial manufacturing and fuel production); Power & heat (power and heat generation plants).

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  • The Carbon Brief Profile: India
  • Everything you need to know about India's climate and energy policy

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