The Carbon Brief Profile: Brazil

In the first of a new series explaining how key emitters are positioned to tackle climate change, Carbon Brief sets out Brazil’s key policy developments, pledges and statistics…

Brazil, South America’s largest economy, has a unique set of circumstances when it comes to addressing climate change.

Home to much of the Amazon, its largest source of emissionsby faris land-use change and the forestry sector. Brazil also uses large amounts of biofuels in transport and generatesmore than 70%of its electricity from hydropower.

Brazil is one of the five major emerging “BRICS” economies and has the world’ssixth largestgreenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Brazilincreased the ambitionof its climate efforts in thelead upto the Paris climate change summit.

However, turbulent events in Brazil, including a presidentialimpeachment, a widespreadeconomic crisisand a majorpolitical corruption scandal, have led toconcernsthat progress on climate and energy policy is slowing.

(Update 29/10/2018: Theelectionof Jair Bolsonaro as Brazil’s new president has invoked强烈的关注over his policy positions about the environment. However, just before his election hesaidhe does not intend to pull out of the Paris Agreement if elected, despiteearlierplans to do so.)

Graphic byRosamund Pearcefor Carbon Brief.

Politics

In 1988, following 24 years of military rule, democracy wasre-establishedin Brazil. In recent years, however, it has been beset by a major political corruptionscandaland economic downturn.

Dilma Rousseff, of the centre-leftWorkers’ party, was elected president for a second term in October 2014. However, she wasimpeachedin August 2016 for allegedly manipulating government accounts ending 13 years of rule by the party. Her term was also overshadowed by abribery scandaland a severerecession。

Hundredsmore Brazilian politicians have been investigated or charged with corruption. Michel Temer, vice-president under Rousseff and chairman of the centre-rightPMDB party, who was confirmed as the new president in 2016, was last yearformally chargedfor taking bribes from meat-packing giant JBS. While heavoidedhis corruption trial, he is now again being investigated foranotheralleged case of bribery.

Since coming to power, Temer has alsoprovokedconcernover a roll-back of environmental and land protections andindigenous peoples’ rights。In particular, some fear anannouncementin April last year to cut the government’s environment budget by 43% could hinder efforts to stem deforestation. Concerns have also beenexpressedthat the Temer government is inviting an “oil frenzy” by giving companies a package of major tax breaks.

National elections are scheduled in Brazil for 7 October 2018. The president is elected to a four-year term by absolute majority using atwo-round system。

(Update 31/7/2018: Temer, whose approval rating runs in the single digits, haswithdrawn from runningin the election.Luiz Inacio ‘Lula’ da Silva, former president and leader of theWorkers party, is campaigning to return to office and still leads in thepolls。However, he wasorderedin April to begin a prison sentence for acorruption convictionand willlikely be barredfrom running for the presidency again.

Far-right congressmanJair Bolsonaro, who wants to take Brazil out of theParis Agreementand is sometimesreferred toas “Brazil’s Trump”, is currentlypolling second。Centre-left environmentalist and former environment minister Marina Silva also has a significant showing –especiallyif she inherits many of the votes from a barred da Silva.)

(Update 29/10/2018: Bolsonaro, who won the presidency in the second round of voting on Sunday 28 October,saidjust before his victory that he was not set on leaving the Paris climate accord if elected. Whenaskedat a press conference if Brazil would abandon the Paris deal without certain assurances around its sovereignty in the Amazon, Bolsonaro said that was not his intention, reportsBloomberg。“Brazil stays in the Paris Agreement,” he said.)

Unemployment sits ataround 12%in Brazil, although the economy has shownsignsof recovery after a four-year recession. Despite this economic turndown leading to a fall in energy use, Brazil’s emissions rose by 9% in 2016,drivenlargely by a spike in illegal deforestation.

Agribusiness has become increasingly important in the struggling economy, in turn leading to an increase in the political power of wealthylandowners。The so-called “bancada ruralista” (rural caucus) now controls more than half of Brazil’s congress.

在这些不确定的时期,环境和气候由e policies are not a key focus of political discussions in Brazil. However, Brazil is alsoproudof its place on the world stage as a protagonist on climate change, while polls show Brazilians arehighly concernedabout climate change. Brazil hasalsoput in a bid to host COP25, next year’s UN climate conference, which is scheduled to be hosted in Latin America and the Caribbean.

(Update 6/2/2019: In late November 2018, Bolsonaro announced that Brazil hasabandonedits plans to host the 2019 climate talks. The talks are nowdueto take place in Chile. InDecember 2018, Bolsonaro’s new environment minister, who is backed by Brazil’s powerful agribusiness lobby,calledthe discussion on global warming “secondary”.Soon after assuming office in January 2019, Bolsonarotransferredthe regulation and creation of new indigenous reserves to the agriculture ministry, a move indigenous leaderssaidwill result in increased deforestation. In his speech to theWorld Economic Forum(WEF) later in January, Bolsonarostressedthat protecting Brazil’s environment must be “harmonised” with growing the economy.)

Paris pledge

During international climate talks at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Brazil sits in the “BASIC” (Brazil, South Africa, India and China)negotiating bloc, as well as the “G77 + China” bloc.

Brazil’s climatepledge(“nationally determined contribution”, or NDC), submitted to the UNin the leadup to the Paris climate change conference in 2015, targets a 37% cut in greenhouse gas by 2025 compared to 2005 levels. Brazil also pledged an “indicative” 2030 target to achieve a 43% reduction in emissions compared to 2005.

Brazil’s NDC makes it the only large developing nation to havepromisedan absolute reduction in emissions. In contrast, many developing countries – includingIndiaandChina– offered only to peak their emissions by a certain date, or to cut their emissions compared to abusiness-as-usual(BAU) trajectory. The pledge represented an adjustment in Brazil’s stance at the UN climate negotiations, where it had previouslyargueddeveloping countries with low historical emissions should have more leeway in emissions cuts. In 2010, as part of theCopenhagen accord, itpledgedonly a reduction compared to a BAU scenario.

However, according to governmentdatacited in itsNDC, Brazil’s emissions were already well below 2005 levels when it made the pledge, largely due to a steep fall in deforestation rates. The data showed Brazil’s emissions stood at 1.2bn tonnesCO2 equivalent(CO2e) in 2012, a 41% drop compared to 2005 levels. Therefore, Brazil’s emissions already stood near its 2030 NDC target in 2012, while its target for 2025 actually allows for an increase in emissions.

(注意,巴西的排放数量下降ped alsodependson the sourcedataused to calculate it. According to data compiled by thePotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research(PIK), Brazil’s emissions had onlyfallen to1.4bn tonnesCO2 equivalent(CO2e) by 2012, a 32% drop on 2005 levels.)

Brazil’s NDC also represents a reduction in per capita emissions. Brazil’s populationcurrentlysits at around 210 million and isprojectedto reach 229 million by 2035. According to the pledge, per capita emissions are set to fall from 6.5 tonnes of CO2 equivalent (tCO2e) in 2012 to 6.2tCO2e in 2025, taking into account theprojected risein population. A further drop to 5.4tCO2e will be seen by 2030, the pledge says.

(For context,combiningpopulation data from theWorld BankandPIK GHG emissionsdata indicates Brazil’s territorial per capita emissions stood at around 7.0tCO2e in 2012 and 7.01tCO2e in 2014. The UK’s were 7.79tCO2e and India’s 2.37tCO2e in 20154.)

Brazil pointed out in its Paris pledge that even its 2012 per capita GHG emissions of 6.5tCO2e were already at what some developed countries consider fair for their own to be in 2030. It’s worth noting that Brazilian trade was a slightnet importerof CO2 emissions in 2014, although the “embodied” methane emissions exported via Brazil’slargebeef exports is not included in this CO2-only figure.

Climate Action Tracker(CAT) rates Brazil’s Paris pledge as “insufficient”, meaning it is not consistent with theParis Agreement下面的目标限制变暖2C, let alone itsintentionto limit it to 1.5C.

CAT argues Brazil’s pledge is at the “least ambitious end” of a fair contribution to global mitigation. Brazil needs to reverse its current trend of weakening climate policy, strengthen implementation in the forestry sector, and reverse present plans to expand fossil fuel energy sources, it adds.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) hasprojectedBrazil’s CO2 emissions will increase in the decades to 2040 unless new policies are introduced to support and build further on its Paris pledge. Brazil’s GHG emissionsincreasedby 9% in 2016, according to NGOObservatorio do Clima, driven by an increase in Amazon deforestation.

Biofuels

Brazil accounts for 23% of the world’sbiofuel production, second only to the US, which produces 44%. This come largely from sugarcane, althoughsoy, maize and palm oilare also used.

Biofueluse is mainly in Brazil’srapidlyexpanding vehicle fleet, supported byyearsof tax incentives and policies to promote its use. As shown in Carbon Brief’s interactive infographic above, only around 15% of Brazil’s overall greenhouse gas emissions came from transport in 2014, and the sector’s emissions fell slightly in 2015 and 2016.

However, Brazil’s vehicle fleet is alsoexpandingrapidly, withair pollution, partly from transport,remaininga significant problem in the country.

Thevast majorityof new cars sold in Brazil today arecapableof running on pure ethanol, a gasoline-ethanol blend, or any mixture of both.Around 60%of the country’s light vehicle fleet is now made of these “flex fuel” vehicles, which allow owners toswitch freelybetween a gasoline-biofuel blend and pure biofuel depending on their price at the pump. These were firstintroducedin Brazil in only 2003.

Pure gasoline is no longer sold at pumps in Brazil, since it has had an ethanol-use mandate since 1977. This dictates the minimum amount of bioethanol required to be blended with gasoline and is currentlysetat 27%. For comparison, the UK’s biofuel-use targetcurrentlysits at 4.75%, while the EU has mandated a 10% blend for 2020.

Meanwhile, Brazil’snational biodieselprogramme,createdin 2004 to promote domestic production,mandatesthat diesel fuel should be composed of 8% biodiesel. This is set to increase to 10% in March 2018.

Last year, Brazilpasseda new biofuels law to further increase the use of biofuels based on emissions reduction certificates,set to beginin 2020.

Brazil’s Paris pledge promises to increase the share ofbioenergy– which includes biofuels and bioelectricity – in its overall energy mix to around 18% by 2030. Figures quoted by the Brazilian energy ministry in December 2017indicateBrazil may have already reached this target.

However, uncertaintiesremainabout how much further expansion of biofuels is possible, given constraints, such as the competing demand for animal feed, climate change impacts and protection of natural ecosystems.

Concerns centre on the fear that higher biofuel production could lead either directly or indirectly to moreland clearing。In addition, nitrogen fertiliser used in growing sugarcane for ethanol currentlyleadsto significantemissionsof nitrous oxide (N2O), a powerful greenhouse gas.

One recentNaturestudy, however, found there was substantial potential for sugarcane biofuel to expand in Brazil over the coming decades, while also protecting forests under conservation and accounting for increases in food and animal feed production. Itfoundsuch an expansion of Brazilian sugarcane could reduce global CO2 emissions by as much as 5.6%.

Deforestation

Around60%of Brazil’s land area is covered by forests. Overall, the country is home to 13% of the world’s forested area.

Two-thirds of the world’s largest rainforest, theAmazon, lies in Brazil. Brazil has a wealth of other forests, such as theAtlantic Forest, which has been 85% deforested, but is still the second most diverse ecosystem on the planet after the Amazon.

Brazil is also home to much of thePantanal region, the world’s largest tropical wetlands, which holds one of the greatest concentrations of wildlife on Earth and is threatened by agricultural expansion.

Brazil’s “Forest Code” law – first passed in 1965, but revised many times then replacedin 2012– required landowners to maintain aminimumpercentage of their property under native vegetation, typically80% in the Amazon。However, this law hasprovenhard to implement and monitor. Brazil has struggled with deforestation for years.

Emissions from theland use, land-use change and forestry(LULUCF) sector accounted for themajorityof the country’s GHG emissions for decades until 2005, but the country saw a huge decline of around 70% in the decade after this. LULUCF emissions hadcomelargely from illegal deforestation.

LULUCF still accounts for around a fifth of Brazil’s emissions. Illegal and legal deforestation, driven bycattle ranching,soy productionforlivestock feedand logging for timber and charcoal,continuesto be a significantproblemin Brazil today.

After 2005, deforestation in Brazil fell significantly for a decade, but inrecent yearshas again shown increases. Deforestation fell again by16%in the year to July 2017 – thefirst declinein three years – but still remains well above 2012 levels.Concernscontinue that the “ruralista” bloc in Brazil’s congress has been using the disruption in the political system to push through legislation to reverse rainforest protections. Last June,Norwaytold Brazil it would cut its billion-dollar financial assistance to protect the Amazon if rising deforestation there was not reversed.

Deforestation in Brazil has major implications for the balance of CO2 in the global atmosphere. A major study released in 2015foundthe amount of carbon being absorbed and stored by the Amazon rainforest had fallen by around a third over the previous decade. Anotherrecent studyfound large carbon losses in Brazil and elsewhere are contributing to tropical forests turning from aglobal sinkto a global source of emissions.

Brazil pledged in itsNDCto achieve “zero illegal deforestation” in the Amazon by 2030. However, this represented a step backwards from itsproposal2008年实现“zero net deforestation” by 2015. Brazil has alsopromisedtorestore12m hectares of deforested land by 2030 – thebiggest commitmentof its kind ever made by a single country.

Last year, Brazillauncheda centralised database to monitor individual trees through the supply chain to help combat illegal logging in the Amazon. It has also suggested it may beginpaying landownersto maintain more of their land in its natural state.

Agriculture

Agriculture isan major part ofBrazil’s economy. The country’s farmlandincreasedby quarter over the past decade and the sector accounted for46%of Brazil’s exports in 2016. It was also one of the few sectors togrow in 2017despite the recession. This has led to agricultural interests having astrong representationin the Brazilian congress andconsiderable influenceover President Temer.

As well as CO2, the agricultural sector emits large amounts ofnitrous oxide(N2O) andmethane(CH4). The sector is currently thelargestsource of overall GHG emissions in Brazil, with a34%share.

Methane emissions are Brazil’s second largest sources of emissions after CO2, accounting for almost a third of its total greenhouse gas emissions. Cattlearethe country’s largest source of methane emissions, which are expected tocontinue to risewith future growth in Brazilian beef production. However, Brazilarguesin its NDC that calculating CO2e of methane in a different way would lower the importance of methane.

In addition to its deforestation pledge, Brazil hascommittedto restoring 15m hectares of degraded pasturelands by 2030 and enhancing 5m hectares ofsystemsintegrating the crop, livestock and forest components together by 2030. However, its NDC has no mention of reducing methane emissions from cattle.

Renewables

Brazil has one of thelargest renewablessectors in the world, with three-quarters of its electricity supply coming from renewables including hydropower in 2015.

下面的图表显示了巴西的加热器的来源tricity generation up to 2014.

源电力公关oduction in Brazil, 1985-2014. Source: World BankWorld Development Indicatorsfor breakdown between different sources; BPStatistical Review of World Energy 2017for total electricity generation values. Chart by Carbon Brief usingHighcharts。

Brazil’sNDCoutlines plans to boost the share of renewables in its overall energy mix to 45% by 2030, up from 40% in 2015. It indicates around two-thirds of this should come from renewables other than hydro. It also wants to reach 23% of non-hydro renewables in its power mix by 2030, as well as making the electricity supply 10% more efficient.

In December, Brazil released its10-year energy plan。While this has afocuson rapidly expanding renewables, it also expects nuclear, gas and coal to grow slowly, while oil production isexpectedto double by 2026.

Wind power is fast growing in Brazil, with 10.6GW installed capacity by the end of 2016 and a further 24%increase2017.巴西的十年计划aimsto increase capacity to 28.4GW by 2026,around 12%of its power mix. A governmentauctionfor new power plants held last December – the first in two years for wind firms due to the recession – awarded 1.4 GW of wind capacity out of total contracts of 4.5GW. The auction sawrecord low pricesfor wind power.

As the chart shows, solar power is still a fairly nascent industry in Brazil. However, it isbeginning to expand。It was awarded contracts for 0.6GW in the December auction, while Brazil’s energy planaimsto have 9.6GW of installed capacity by 2026.

Brazil’s energy demand isset to expandsignificantly over the coming decades, with demand for all fuels likely to increase.

Hydro

Brazil is theworld’s second largesthydropower producer after China. Hydropower provides more than two-thirds of the electricity in Brazil and met 11% of total energy demand in 2016.

In particular, the enormousItaipú hydroelectric dam, a 50:50 project jointly owned with neighbouring Paraguay, was extended to 14GW capacity in 2006/2007. It produced around 17% of Brazil’s (and 76% of Paraguay’s) electricity in 2016.

Brazil’s government has plans for development of a further100or so hydroelectric projects.

However, these massive hydropower dams have in some cases proved costly in bothhumanandenvironmentalterms, provoking wide opposition.

The 11,000 megawatt (MW) Belo Monte Dam, which is set to be the country’s second largest after Itaipú, has been beset bycontroversy and delaysdue to several federal court battles over its impact onlocal indigenous communitiesand theenvironment。Meanwhile, the planned 8,000MW São Luiz de Tapajós Dam was effectivelycancelledin 2016 following opposition from indigenous communities.

The government’s recentenergy planincluded several large hydropower projects in the Amazon region. However, in January 2017 a senior officialindicateda possible shift away from building mega-dams in the Brazilian Amazon.

Oil reserves

Brazil has large oil reserves and is currently the world’sninth-largestpetroleum producer.

Most of its reserves are found offshore. Brazil’s majority state-owned oil firm Petrobrasdiscoveredthe country’s“pre-salt” oilfieldsin 2007, the largest deepwater offshore oil find in decades. Despite strong support from bothRousseffandTemer, pre-salt oilextractionremains under debate in Brazil due to itsimpacton the climate,fearsover a repeat of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill and how it couldaffectlocal fisherman.

Brazil heldseveralinternational auctions in 2017 for its oil, with bidders including oil majors, such as Shell and Statoil. Meanwhile,Exxonmobilemergedas the biggest winner in an auction last October for oil blocks outside the pre-salt area. It won 10 blocks in its bid and six in consortia with majority-state owned oil firmPetrobrasfor the offshoreCampos basinoff the coast of Rio de Janeiro.

Oil giantsBPandTotalalso want to drill in the region near the mouth of the Amazon river. The proposition, which would entail drillingnear tothe Amazon reef (which was only widely revealed to scientists in 2016) facespublic oppositionand a campaign against it by Greenpeace. Brazil’s environmental regulator,Ibama, has also repeatedlyrejectedTotal’s environmental impact studies for drilling in the region, with its decision on Total’s latest submissionduein the first half of 2018.

A recentreportfrom the International Energy Agency (IEA) recently cited Brazil as one of the four countries, along with the US, Norway and Canada, that it expects to contribute to oil supply growth in the coming few years. The chart below shows how the IEA forecasts growth in Brazilian oil supply up to 2023.

Climate laws

Brazil’s 1988constitutionincludes a chapter on the environment, where it says “the government and the community have a duty to defend and to preserve the environment for present and future generations”.

In 2009, Brazil established itsNational Policy on Climate Change (NPCC)to underpin efforts to tackle its emissions and adapt to climate change. This followed the country’s 2002 climate law known asPROINFA, which aimed to incentivise electricity generation from wind, biomass and small hydroelectric.

In a majorrulinglast month, Brazil’s Supreme Court upheld the country’s newForest Code, passed in 2012, which included major changes to forest protection laws. The court had been asked to judge whether the codeinfringesthe country’s constitution, but found it does not. The code includes an amnesty programme for illegal deforestation that occurred before 2008 on “small properties” in a move environmentalists warned would make illegal deforestation more culturally acceptable. Brazil is expectingseveralother environmental court rulings in 2018.

The government has in recent yearsexplored the possibilityof using anational emissions trading scheme(ETS). However,no schemeis yet in place. Both Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo have also considered implementing statewide trading schemes, while a group of companies have been participating in avoluntary ETS simulationsince 2013.

Impacts and adaptation

Brazil’s biologically diverse ecosystems make it vulnerable to climate change, with both theAtlanticandAmazonforests facing significant risks. Conservationists have warned that Brazil’scoral reefs, mangroves and coastal habitatscould also be threatened by climate change.

巴西也患有许多疾病保存权杖ad by mosquitoes, such asdengue fever,Zika virusand malaria, whichresearchersare concerned could be exacerbated by climate change.

Research hasshownthat extreme weather events, such as droughts, will become more frequent in the future due to climate change, although it was found to have “not [been] a major influence” on asevere droughtin southeastern Brazil in 2014-15.

In 2016, Brazil submitted itsNational Adaptation Planto the UNFCCC, one of only nine countries – and the only large emitter – to have done this so far.

The plan, whichtookthree years to draft and stretches over some 500 pages, covers 11 sectors, including agriculture, biodiversity, disasters and mining. It aims to form a basis for strengthening Brazil’s adaptation capacity, assess climate risks and manage vulnerabilities.

yabo亚博体育app下载by Carbon Brief last year showed Brazil had received $109m between 2013 and 2016 (inclusive) from multilateral climate funds, one of the vehicles for distributing internationalclimate financefor mitigation and adaptation. Brazil was the 14th largest recipient of such funds, the analysis found. Major projects included one onincreasing the sustainabilityof cities and another onsustainable agriculturein Brazil’s Cerrado biome.