The Carbon Brief Profile: Australia

In the seventh article of a series on how key emitters are responding to climate change, Carbon Brief looks at Australia’s complex climate politics and rising fossil fuel exports.

Climate change is atop tierpolitical issue in Australia. Debates over climate and energy policy havetriggeredseveral of thenumerous changesof prime minister in recent years.

澳大利亚世界第15大温室gas emissions in 2015 and its citizens’ per-capita contribution is around three times the global average.

It is the world’ssecond largestcoal exporter andrecentlybecame the top exporter ofliquified natural gas(LNG). Its electricity system remainsheavily reliant on coal, despite ramping up the use of gas and renewables, especiallyrooftop solar。

It is also highly vulnerable to theeffects气候变化,包括高温、干旱, bushfires andagricultural impacts。

Based on its current trajectory, Australia isoff trackon itsinternational pledgeto cut emissions 26-28% by 2030 compared to 2005 levels.

Opinion pollssuggest the opposition Labor party will win the upcoming federal election,expectedin May.

(Update 24/05/2019: The Liberal-National Coalition’s victory in the May election cameas a shockto many commentators who thought climate change was going to be a decisive factor that would lead to a win for Labor. The result has raised concerns that policies to tackle global warming, such as a transitionaway from coal, will not be at the top of the government’s agenda in the coming years. To get a sense of the different parties’ positions on climate and energy issues, seeour summaryof manifesto pledges made in the run-up to the election.)

Politics

Australia’s economy ranks13thglobally in terms of gross domestic product (GDP), just after Russia and South Korea. Its population sits at25 million– 53rd in the world – and is projected to increase to33 millionby 2050.

The country has recently witnessed political turbulence, withfive changesof prime minister over the past decade. The current government has been in power since 2013 and is formed of a longtime alliance between the right-leaningLiberalandNationalparties (L/NP), together known as the “Coalition”.

The Liberal prime ministerScott Morrisonhas held office since August 2018. He was preceded byMalcolm Turnbullfrom 2015-2018 andTony Abbottfrom 2013-2015, both Liberals. The left-leaningLabor party(ALP) was in power from 2007 to 2013 underKevin RuddandJulia Gillard。

The country will return to the polls this year. The date is flexible, but widelyexpectedto be inMay。Opinionpollsgenerally show aprojected winfor Labor, now led byBill Shorten。

Climate change policy has along and complex在澳大利亚和历史highly politicised。Some pollsshow it as a top issue among voters in the federal election. Tens of thousands of Australian schoolchildren recentlyjoinedthe globalschool climate strikes。

Around 58% of Australians consider climate change a “major threat” to their country, second only to the 59% who consideredISISa major threat, according to a 2017pollfrom thePew Research Centre。Another 2018surveyfrom theAustralia Institutethinktank found 60% want coal-fired power to be phased out within 20 years. The same survey found 73% of people are concerned about climate change, a five-year high.

Lobbyists and the media are alsostrong political playersin Australia. Themining lobbyspentaroundAUS$5m (£2.7m) last year on political campaigning, compared to AUS$183k (£99k) by environmental NGOs. Australia’s media landscape is among themost concentratedin the world. The two main newspaper firms – the more conservativeNews Corpand more progressiveFairfax Media– are strongly polarised politically, according to the 2018Digital News Report,includingonclimate。

Australia has never hosted a meeting of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). In 1998 it signed theKyoto Protocol, which committed developed country signatories to emission reduction targets. But Australia没有批准这个until 2007, following the election of a Labor government. ItratifiedtheParis Agreementon 9 November 2016.

Paris pledge

Australia’s annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions stood at 550m tonnes of CO2 equivalent (MtCO2e) in 2015 includingland-use and forestry(LULUCF), according todatacompiled by thePotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research(PIK). (See “note on infographic” at the end of this article for details of this data. Note that LULUCF emissions were negative in 2015).

Emissions excluding LULUCF have almost doubled since 1970. They peaked at 700MtCO2e in 2011 and stood at 630MtCO2e in 2016.

In August 2015, Australiasubmittedits climatepledgetowards theParis climate talks. This“nationally determined contribution” (NDC) came under Liberal prime minister Tony Abbott.

The pledge promised a 26-28% emissions reduction by 2030 compared to 2005 levels, including land use. This isequivalentto a 22–25% cut below 1990 levels including land use, but a 3-6% rise when land-use emissions are excluded. This sector is a net sink in Australia.

The pledge says the target is “comparable to the targets of other advanced economies” and that Australia will achieve the upper 28% of its target “should circumstances allow”. It adds:

“This effort takes account of Australia’s unique national circumstances, including a growing population and economy, role as a leading global resources provider, our current energy infrastructure, and higher than average abatement costs.”

The government’s independent advisors, theClimate Change Authority(CCA), hadpreviously recommendeda target of a 40-60% cut in emissions by 2030 compared to 2000 levels. Australia’s pledge represents only a 19-22% cut on emissions in 2000.

The main policy outlined in Australia’s climate pledge was itsEmissions Reduction Fund(ERF) (see more in the next section) and aschemeto source 23% of electricity from renewables by 2020.

Several post-2020 policies were under development, it said, including aplanfor a 40% improvement inenergy productivity– the amount of energy needed to generate each unit of GDP – between 2015 and 2030.

Australia’s per-capita emissions stood at23tCO2e in 2015, according to PIK and世界银行data, around nine times those of India and more than three times the world average of 7tCO2e.

Australia says its pledge represents a 50-52% cut in per-capita emissions by 2030, compared to 2005 levels. The 28% by 2030 pledge would see per-capita emissions fall to 16tCO2e in 2030, from 31tCO2e in 2005, according to PIK data andUN population projections。

The pledge israted为“不足”Climate Action Tracker(CAT), an independent analysis by three research organisations. “If all government targets were within this range, warming would reach over 2C and up to 3C,” it says.

There is disagreement over whether Australia is on track to meet its climate targets.

According to CAT, a current lack of policies means it will not meet the targets within its pledge and is actually on a trajectory in line with 3-4C warming. CAT adds:

“To meet its ‘insufficient’ 2030 emissions targets, Australian emissions should decrease by an annual rate of 1.5-1.7% until 2030; instead, with current policies, they are set to increase by an annual rate of around 0.3% per year.”

Climate Transparency, a research and NGO partnership, alsosaysAustralia’s GHG trajectory and NDC target are not compatible with the Paris goals. Policy is failing to address the need for structural change, with effective policies missing in every sector, it says.

In contrast, a recentyabo亚博体育app下载from theAustralian National Universityfinds the Paris target will be met five years early, though its findings aredisputed。In December 2017, a governmentreviewsaid Australia was “on track” to meet its target.

Criticssaythese assessments use “creative accounting” and take credit for a large decline in deforestation that happened before the Paris Agreement was signed. Australia is also trying tocarry forward creditfor overachieving on its Kyoto targets, using the surplus to meet its Paris goals. The final rules on whether this should be allowed haveyet to be decided。

Similar issues cloud Australia’s progress on its earlier climate pledges and goals.

As part of the 2009Copenhagen accord, the country pledged a voluntary 5% reduction on 2000 levels by 2020,rising to a 15-25%reduction, if the world struck a strong climate deal. The CCA hassaidthese stronger conditions have been met and recommended a 15% target, saying a 5% target is not “a credible start”. The government hasstuck tothe 5% pledge.

In 2010, the countrypledgedto reduce emissions 0.5% below 1990 levels by 2020 aspartof the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol. The 5% Copenhagen pledge was used to calculate this legally binding target, which takes the form of acumulative emissions budget。Australia ison trackto meet the target, helped by the use of “flexibility mechanisms” and carry-over from thefirst Kyoto commitment period。

Australia is part of theUmbrella Groupinformalnegotiating blocat international climate talks, which is mainly made up of rich countries from several continents. The group has often beencharacterisedas less enthusiastic towards international climate cooperation than other developed countries.

Australia is also part of theCartagena Dialogue, an informal discussion group of countries that say they are committed to becoming low-carbon.

It is one of the worst-performing countries both for national climate policy and for hindering progress in international negotiations, according to a recent NGO performanceindex。This ranked Australia 55th out of 60 countries.

Climate policy

Over the past decade, several flagshipclimate policieshave been announced and thenadjustedorcancelled, including ascrappedeconomy-wide carbon tax. The current policy void means the next government could make alarge differenceto Australia’s emissions.

In August 2018, Malcolm Turnbullremovedan emissions reduction target for the power industry from his main proposed energy policy – thenational energy guarantee(NEG) – due to pressure from his party’s rightwing. This same group laterousted himas prime minister, with Scott Morrison taking the helm anddropping the NEGaltogether.

The “centrepiece” of government emissions reduction efforts is now theERF, previously called theDirect Action Plan。This uses areverse auctiontoaward contractsfor emissions cuts. Contracts go to the cheapest bids from businesses, local councils, state governments and farmers.

There are ongoingconcernsover the ERF, including itscostto the taxpayer,abilityto deliver promised emissions cuts and theadditionalityand permanence of any reductions.

Most ERF projects are in the土地部门, though funding has also gone to new fossil fuel projectsconsideredcleaner than the activities they replace. TheClean Energy Regulator, which runs the fund, last yearcancelledAUS$24m (£13m) of contracts that had failed to deliver.

The scheme will need to contribute “less of Australia’s emissions reduction task over time”, according to a 2017reviewby the CCA. “[O]ther policies will need to take up the challenge of decarbonising Australia’s economy and deliver structural change”, it said, though the ERF should be “built on as part of the policy tool kit” to meet Australia’s Paris goals.

Morrison hasrebrandedthe ERF as the“Climate Solutions Fund”and promised it an extra AUS$2bn (£1.1bn), aspartof a AUS$3.5bn (£1.9bn) “Climate Solutions Package”. The pledge has beencriticisedfor falling far short of what is needed to tackle Australia’s emissions, particularly due to the shortage of projects in the emissions-intensive power and industry sectors. Announcing the funding in February, Morrisonsaid:

“Our government will take, and is taking, meaningful, practical, sensible, responsible action on climate change without damaging our economy or your family budget.”

In its latest budget, published earlier this month, the Morrison governmentsaidthis new AUS$2bn of funding would need to last for 15 years, instead of 10 as initially proposed.

The opposition Labor party’sclimate change planwould raise Australia’s emissions reduction target for 2030 from a 26-28% to a 45% cut on 2005 levels. Labor leader Bill Shorten hascalledclimate change “a disaster”. His party would bring in a new emissions trading scheme and target “net zero pollution” by 2050.

In an effort to create cross-party consensus, Labor stillsupportsthe NEG and its emissions reduction mechanism, both dropped by the Liberals. The party would also raise the emissions reduction target.

In the event this compromise fails, Labor has outlined a AUS$15bn (£8bn)planto cut emissions in the energy system. Of this, AUS$10bn (£5.4bn) will go to the government-ownedgreen bankLabor established in 2012, including for a AUS$1bn (£540m)planto begin exporting hydrogen. Itrecentlyruled out taxpayer support for new coal power plants.

Australia’sGreen party– which could hold the balance of power in the senate after the elections – has alsoannounceda host of climatepolicies。These include 100% renewable electricity by 2030, bans on new fossil fuel extraction and a phaseout of coal exports by 2030, in favour of renewable exports such as “solar fuels”.

Regional climate ambition in Australia is generally far stronger than at the federal level.All states and territories, bar Western Australia, have strong renewable energy targets, net-zero emissions targets, or both. South Australia istargetingnet-zero emissions by 2050.

Coal

In 2017, 61% of Australia’s electricity came from coal, as the chart below shows. However, coal power output has fallen from a peak in 2006, due to the rising use of gas and renewables. Around a third of Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions come from the power sector.

Electricity generation in Australia by fuel, 1985-2017 (terawatt hours). Source:BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2018。Chart by Carbon Brief usingHighcharts。

As of January 2019, Australiahas24 gigawatts (GW) ofoperating coal plants, the world’s 11th largest fleet, according to theGlobal Coal Plant Tracker。It has been10 yearssince a new coal power plant was commissioned and 9GW of planned capacity has beenshelvedor cancelled since 2010. There are currently no new coal plants in the pipeline. Nine coal power stations have been retired over the past five years in Australia,saysCAT.

Much of Australia’s coal fleet isageing, posing questions over where the country will source its electricity in future. The risk ofsummer blackouts– a majorpolitical issue–could growas old coal plants becomeless reliableand higher temperaturesincreasepeakdemand。

The government is consideringcommittingsupport for new coal power investment before the election, urged on bysomefactionsof the ruling party. According toone assessment, Australia already has some of the world’s highestfossil fuel subsidiesper capita.

Natural resources, including coal and metals such as iron ore, uranium and gold, are a major part of Australia’s economy. Theyaccountfor 8% of GDP and 70% of exports.

Australia mined 500m tonnes of coal in 2017, making it the world’sfourth largestproducer afterChina,Indiaand the US, and just ahead ofIndonesia。Mines are located mainly in Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria.

The Australian governmentexpectsits coal-mining activities to increase, leading to a rise in emissions in the sector. In particular, this is due to several “gassy” coal mines returning to full production after temporary declines, leading to increasedfugitive methane emissions。

There has beenwidespreadopposition to anew thermal coal minein Queenslandproposedby Indian energy giant Adani, including a series oflegal challenges。Adani is nowself-financinga smaller version of the project afternumerousbanksruled out funding.

Last year, a New South Wales judge cited climate change impacts whenruling outanother planned coal mine in the Hunter Valley.

Coal is this year set to become Australia’smost valuable export。The country only consumes a quarter of the coal it produces and is the world’ssecond largest exporterafter Indonesia.

Coal exports were386m tonnes in 2018, worth some AUS$67bn (£36bn) in earnings, andexpected to grow。Japan, China and India are allsignificant destinations。

Renewables

Australia’s renewable capacity has increased rapidly over the past decade. By 2017, production from renewables other than hydro hadmore than tripledon 2007 levels, providing 10% of electricity.

Australia has one of the highest rooftop solar rates in the world: a fifth of allhouseholdshave it installed,rising to a thirdin some states. Itprovidesaround 4% of Australia’s electricity.

Solar farms are also on the rise from analmost non-existentbase five years ago. The country currently hasmore solar farmsunder construction than its total solar farm capacity.More than a millionsolar water heaters are installed onaround an eighthof homes, while South Australia isset to buildthe world’s largestsolar thermalplant.

Onshore wind capacity was4.6GWin 2017,more than a thirdof which is in South Australia. This compares to 7.2GW for solar, of which6.6GWis rooftop solar. Significantly moreadditionsare planned for both. Australia has yet to approve itsfirst offshore wind farm。

Australian renewable capacity had arecord-breaking在2018年。Around 10GW of new solar and wind capacity is expected to be installed during 2018 and 2019.

Hydropower provides around 5% of electricity generation, bringing the renewable total to 15%. Its output has remained relatively constant for decades, with its share in the electricity mix falling as other sources increase.

Australia’s largest hydro scheme,Snowy Hydrolocated in the south-east of the country, has a total capacity of 4GW, most of which was completed 45 years ago or more. A 2GWexpansion,被称为Snowy 2.0, wasapprovedin December.

The island state Tasmaniaproduces around 90%of its electricity from hydro and exports to the mainland during peak demand via aninterconnector。Hydro Tasmaniahasmajor plansfor newpumped hydro storageand a second interconnector, as part of its “battery of the nation” scheme to double its renewable capacity to 5GW.

In 2009, Australia set a target for20% of electricityto come from renewables by 2020,expandinganearlier renewables goal。Itsschemeto achieve thisrequireshigh energy users to source afixed proportionof electricity from renewable sources by buying certificates, with thevalue of the certificatesdecreasing each year.

Alarge-scale generationsub-target alone means 23.5% of generation will come from renewables in 2020, according to the government.yabo亚博体育app下载indicates the overall 20% target has already been surpassed.

The current government hasno plansto set a post-2020 target, however, despite being advised to do so by its chief scientistAlan Finkelin a 2017review。

Around 70% of Australians back a higher renewable electricity target,according toa recent poll. Australia could reach 50% renewables in 2025 and 100% by the early 2030s if its current rate of expansion continued,yabo亚博体育app下载has found. The Labor party haspromisedto deliver 50% renewables by 2030, if it gets into power.

Several states have far stronger renewable targets. South Australia ison trackto its goal of 75% renewable electricity by 2025 and there ispublic supportfor setting a “100% by 2030”target。Victoriaand theNorthern Territoryare targeting 50% renewable electricity by 2030. Tasmania already定期对s100% renewables generation.

In 2017, South Australia madeheadlines在特斯拉建立了世界上then-largest锂ion battery in the state. The battery isexpectedto pay for itself within a few years and has beenwidelypraisedfor boosting grid stability.

The battery was built aftertornadoes causedstatewide blackouts in 2016 by downing power lines and triggeringoverly-sensitivewindfarm protections, which have since been modified.

Australia hasneverhad any nuclear power due tolongstandingbipartisan opposition. However, ithasthe world’s largest known uranium resources and is the third largest exporter of the material.

Oil and gas

Australia haswidespreadgas resources both on and offshore, particularly off the north-west coast. It also has highonshoreunconventional gas resources.

It is one of the world’slargestexporters ofliquefied natural gas(LNG), alongside Qatar, with seven operating LNG terminals and three more under construction. Western Australia alone accounts for11%of global LNG capacity.

Domestic gas use has also risen in recent years. Itmeta quarter of the country’s energy needs in 2017, up from 16% in 1997. Some analysts say eastern states will need to startimporting LNGto meet demand, even as other parts of the country increase exports.

The countryaims toexport 80Mt of LNG per year by 2020, up from 24Mt in 2013-14. This is expected to lead to a rise in Australia’s emissions due to electricity use in the plants that liquify LNG, as well asfugitive methane emissionsduring extraction.

Fugitive emissions from oil, gas and coal haverisen41% since 2005 and are expected to rise further by 2030. There are alsoconcernsthat these emissions could be underreported.

LNG production is currently thebiggest driverof overall emissions growth in the country and isprojectedto offset all the savings achieved through Australia’s 2020 renewables target.

The currentgovernmentandindustryargue LNG exports cut emissions abroad by displacing coal, although the extent of this effect isdisputed。

Oil use has increased by a quarter since 1997, though its proportion in the energy mix has stayed level at around a third. Australia’s oil reserves are anestimated 0.3%of the world total.

Petroleum productionpeakedin 2000, although exports are now increasing. Australia importsnearly all its oiland exports 75% of its own crude production. Last year, the governmentordereda fuel security review after it was warned the country had only a few weeks of petrol, diesel and aviation fuel in its reserves.

Norwegian oil firmEquinorhasplansfor experimental oil drilling in theGreat Australian Bight, a huge bay off the south coast of Australia. Criticsarguethe deepwater project would put pristine coastline and marine life at risk of an oil spill.

Australia’sexport credit agency,Efic, has beencriticisedby NGOs for supporting fossil-fuel projects around the world. A bill to expand Efic’s powers is expected to pass in early April, potentiallyopening the doorto even morefossil-fuel support。

Transport

Transport accounts for 14% of Australia’s emissions. The governmentexpectsthe sector’s emissions to increase over the next decade. Unlike80% of the global market, Australia has no mandatoryfuel-efficiency standards。Previous proposalswerecut downby the ruling coalition after lobbying from industry.

It alsolags behindother countries in the rollout of electric vehicles (EVs). Just 2,300 were sold in 2017,accordingto Australia’sEV trade body, or 0.2% oftotal motor sales。There aresmall incentivesfor lower emissions cars.

A recent senate select committeereportoutlined options to increase EV uptake, including consideration of a national target. In February, the government released a one-pageEV strategythat stilllacks support measures, according to critics.

Labor recentlyproposeda national EV target of 50% new car sales by 2030, as well as fuel emissions standards for conventional vehicles.

Agriculture and forestry

Australia haslarge agricultural emissions, principallydue to methane releasedfrom its large livestock population. The country hasaround26m cows, 2.2m pigs and65m sheep。Nitrous oxide released from fertilised soils is also a large contributor.

Agricultural emissions have remainedrelatively steadyfor several decades, but a 2013 government-commissionedreportsaid this was likely to change. It projected an annual 1.2% increase up to 2050, driven by rising meat and crop exports. By 2030, emissions would have risen 10% on 2018 levels, the report said.

Australia’s land sector is a large net emissions sink, with the latest climate projectionspointingto “historical lows” in recent years. On balance, 22MtCO2e was absorbed by the land sector in 2018, the report says, but this is set to shrink to 14MtCO2 in 2020 and 1MtCO2e in 2030.

The current lows are due to forest cover increases that are not expected to continue, the report says. This declining carbon sink is one of the main drivers of Australia’s emissions “growth” up to 2020.

Climate laws

Australia’s CCA is a statutory bodyestablishedin 2011 to advise the government on climate targets and policy. It ismodelled closelyon the UK’sCommittee on Climate Change(CCC).

All its proposals need to meet certain criteria, including being economically “efficient”, equitable and consistent with Australia’s trade objectives. Former prime minister Tony Abbott tried butfailedto get rid of the CCA, though he did remove its advisory role on emission targets. The body has sinceshrunk significantly。

In 2013, AbbotclosedtheClimate Commission, an independent science and public education body established by the government in 2011. However, it wasresurrectedas theClimate Council, a non-profit organisation, just days later.

Meanwhile, a 2007greenhouse and energy reporting actintroduced a single national framework forreportingon emissions, in part to underpin any future emissions trading scheme.

Australia’srenewable electricity targetandERFare also set in law, while a 2010actobliges commercial buildings to disclose their energy efficiency when sold or leased.

Impacts and adaptation

澳大利亚正在经历高温,铁道部e frequent and intense extreme heat events, and higher fire risk and drought conditions due to climate change, says the country’s 2017国家通信to the UNFCCC. “These changes in climate are expected to continue,” it adds.

Annual mean temperatures in the country havealready risenby around 1.1C since the late 1800s. They are expected to reach to 1.6-5.3C,depending onfuture emissions.

This year, Australia experienced itshottest summer on record, with the national average temperature around 2.1C above the long-term average, as well asmultiple otherheat records broken. Long-term climate trends played a role in the heatwaves, itsBureau of Meteorologysays。

Drought is seen as a particularly serious issue in Australia. There are strong concerns about theMurray-Darling Basinin the southeastern interior, one of Australia’s most significant agricultural areas, which isalreadybeing affected by climate change. Rainfall patterns are changing and extreme storms, droughts and floods are becoming more frequent and intense, according to a recentpaperby the region’sauthority。

The report came in response tothree mass fish deathsat lakes within the basin, which a scientific panelconcludedwere caused by drought as well as over-extraction.

A 2015reportfrom University of Melbourne researchers outlined how many of Australia’s major food commodities could be affected by climate change, from beef and dairy production to wheat and barley. Up to 70% of Australia’s winegrowing regions with a Mediterranean climate will beless suitablefor grape growing by 2050, the report said.

Climate change has also beenlinked toanincreased riskof bushfires andlengthof the fire season. However, overall effects arecomplexsince climate change can impact the various risk factors of wildfires in different ways.

There is alsoconcernabout sea-level rise, which islikelyto be close to the expected global average of up to a metre by 2100. The country has already seen increased rates of extreme sea levels. Around一半of Australia’s population lives within 7km of thecoast。

Australia’sGreat Barrier Reefis already beingseverely damagedby coral bleaching due tomarine heatwavesandocean acidification。两个主要的祝福aching events in 2016 and 2017 affected 93% and 83% of coral in the reef respectively. The government hasopposed– andlobbied against– efforts to add the Great Barrier Reef toUnesco’s “in danger”list。

The country first set out its approach to adaptation in its 2007national adaptation framework。It also has anational research facilityto support management of climate risks withreportson “priority themes”. In 2015, it released a climate adaptationstrategytowards climate resilience in Australia.

In 2015, Australiacommittedto giving at least AUS$1bn (£540m) in international climate finance to vulnerable countries over five years. This wasredirectedfrom the existing foreign aid budget andincluded$187m previously pledged to theGreen Climate Fund(GCF). Government budget paperspublishedthis month imply Australia hasruled outcontributions to GCF’sreplenishment roundthis year.

Australia does also give significantbilateral climate funding。Overall, it was the 10th largest international climate finance donor in 2015 and 2016, according to Carbon Briefyabo亚博体育app下载。The highest transfer to a single country went toIndonesia。