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这fourth session of the 13th National Peoples Congress opens at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing
这fourth session of the 13th National Peoples Congress opens at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. Credit: Xinhua / Alamy Stock Photo.
CHINA POLICY
12March 20218:32

问答:中国第14届五年计划对气候变化的意思是什么?

Carbon Brief Staff

多个作者

03.12.21
Carbon Brief Staff

多个作者

12。0.3.。20.21|8:32am
China Policy 问答:中国第14届五年计划对气候变化的意思是什么?

本周,在北京的一年一度的“两会”政府中的政治聚会得到正式认可的一个关键政策文件,将在未来十年及以后大量影响国家经济发展 - 和气候政策。

上诚信关“碳简报”

在一周长期的会议之后,中国国家人民大会(NPC)昨日正式地确定了“十三五年计划和长期目标的概述2035”。

In short, the five year plan’s outline sets a 18% reduction target for “CO2 intensity” and 13.5% reduction target for “energy intensity” from 2021 to 2025. For the first time, it also refers to China’s longer-term climate goals within a five year plan and introduces the idea of a “CO2 emissions cap”, though it does not go so far as to set one.

这些新目标已触发widespread discussion关于中国的雄心,以解决其上升的排放。有些人表达出来怀疑论which questions the five year plan’s “shortfall“relative to its longer-term climate pledges.Others说中国拥有超越目标的历史,这需要考虑到这一点。

在这种深入的问答中,碳简介解释了计划释放背后亚慱官网的更广泛的背景,以及中国努力解决气候变化可能意味着什么。

Gathering together the reaction of various China experts, the Q&A also explains how the outline agreed this week is just a foretaste of the range of regional and sectoral plans due to be published over the next year.

什么是'两个会议'?

“两届会议”是每春季举办的两个主要政治会议的集体术语。普通话中被称为“梁晖”,他们是全体会议全国人民代表大会(NPC), China’s top legislative body, andthe Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference(CPPCC),该国的最高政治咨询机构。值得注意的是,政协没有持有任何立法权。

两会每年有数千人参加,通常3月3日至5日在北京开幕,由政协牵头,为期10至12天。开张日期只有两个例外,都是因为Covid-19大流行。去年,会议were postponed to May,虽然今年他们的持续时间缩短到六天半。

Why are this year’s ‘two sessions’ important?

在年度会议期间,中国执政党的领导 - 中国共产党(CPC) - 在未来12个月内阐述其愿景。中央政府审查和批准国家经济和社会发展计划,并收到关于以上计划执行情况的报告。因此,这两个会议被认为是中国最重要的年度政治集会。

This year’s two sessions carry extra significance because they also oversaw the approval of the nation’s next “five year plan” – the 14th in a series stretching back to 1953. They were also held just months after Chinese leader Xi Jinpingannounced中国为2030年加强其气候承诺的新野心 - 它nationally determined contribution根据巴黎协议 - 并达到“碳中立性“到2060年。

今年,中国领导人聚集在北京的人民大会堂,揭示了全国的冠状病毒经济增长。亚博体育ios除了设定2035年的长期“前景”之外,他们还设定了将在未来五年内引导该国的主要能源和气候目标。这为他们必须提供的“旅行方向”提供了政策制定者未来15年。

由于去年9月Xi的承诺,“二氧化碳排放峰”和“碳中立”是今年会议参与者中最受欢迎的两个最受欢迎的主题。例如,有影响力的参与者能源公司那heavy-industry manufacturers andtechnology firms介绍了一系列proposals当two sessions on ways to减少国家的排放量。

什么是'五年计划'?

五年计划或FYP是中国宣布的全面的政策蓝图,每五年释放,以指导其整体经济和社会发展。

该系统是1928年苏联首次使用根据斯大林的统治,后来被中国共产党通过,为新成立的人民共和国制定了经济配额。

毛泽东主席领导起草了国家的宪法前五年计划那which ran from 1953 to 1957 and was officially approved in 1955.

Since then, China has released and implemented 13 of these guidelines, which are made up of a series of documents at national, sectoral, provincial and regional levels.

在本周的两会上,全国人大检验过的得到正式认可的the “outline for the 14th five year plan for economic and social development and long-range objectives through the year 2035” (shortened as “outline”), which had been in the making since 2018.

概述的准备和制定涉及若干关键政府机构,包括the State Council,由总理领导的中国最高行政机关the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China(CCCPC)是一个包括顶级领导人的政治机构。(最近的碳简短亚慱官网文章gave more explanation about China’s governance structure.)

第14届大纲开始于2020年底,在CCCPC进行了相关的研究和审议之前,在展示了对该国在正式情况下的情况的评估之前,在“意见“向国务院的文件。然后,理事会在收到此舆论文件后起草了大纲。

多年来,中国的碎“五年规划evolved beyond their initial functions of economic roadmaps. The official document now covers all important issues, from national security through to carbon emissions. Xi呼叫the plans “an important way for our party to govern the country”.

Timeline showing the key steps in the formulation, implementation and evaluation of the 14FYP. Source: Information based on details revealed innews来自暗示的媒体。汤姆普拉特为碳简介的图表。亚慱官网

大纲通常在中国以外的媒体报告中提到,似乎是“第14届五年计划”。然而,重要的是,概述作为2021 - 2015年的更详细规划的连续论总的总体指南,其中包括特定于部门的规划,例如水泥行业,以及国家安全等主题规划,以及行政各级规划,从中央,省,市政下到县级。

这se plans are due to be published later in 2021 and in early 2022, to break down the targets set in the outline at sectoral and administrative level, and to provide detailed action plans for implementation, evaluation and reporting.

在“十四五”规划中,将包括到2030年实现二氧化碳排放峰值和生态环境部制定的节能减排计划,以及国家发展和改革委员会制定的能源、可再生能源、煤炭、电力发展计划(NDRC)以及国家能源局(国家能源局),由工业和信息技术部配制的钢铁,水泥,铝和化学品等能源密集型工业部门(MIIT.)。

What does the 14FYP say about energy and climate?

这14.8-page outline of the 14th FYP gives an insight into the main goals for China in the period 2021-2025, as well as its longer-term goals for 2035.

活力和climate indicators are included under “new progress of ecological civilisation”, which is one of the six overarching economic and social development goals of the 14th five year plan. This section appears in the text after the goals on economic reform and society and before those on public welfare and governance.

更广泛地,“能量”是在14Fyp轮廓的核心,在整个文件中出现了59次。本文的作者奉献了整个部分,标题为“建立现代能源系统”(见下文),以绘制此过渡的计划。

此外,“能源”出现在十几个其他章节中,例如生态规划,绿色经济,环保和资源保护,国家经济安全和能源和资源安全战略。

In comparison, the word “energy” is mentioned six times more frequently than “climate” in the text. The terms “climate” and “climate change” appear just nine times, mainly in the section titled “actively responding to climate change” (see below).

Screenshots from the draft for adaptation of the 14FYP published by the NPC
这top section is the outline’s text on “new progress of ecological civilisation”, one of six overarching goals for 2025. Below this, two separate sections are dedicated to energy and climate, namely “Establishing a modern energy system” (bottom left) and “Actively responding to climate change” (bottom right). Source: Screenshot from the draft for adoption of the 14FYP published by the NPC (2021).

In total, the 14FYP’s outline devotes four of its 20 “indicators” on economic and social development to energy and climate change (see table below), including half of the “binding” targets. This means that the central government is determined to achieve them as part of its political key performance indicators (KPIs).

“十四五”规划的20个主要经济和社会发展指标中,有4个涉及能源和气候目标。
“十四五”规划的20个主要经济和社会发展指标中,有4个涉及能源和气候目标。它们是:“减少每单位GDP(%)的能耗;“减少每单位GDP(%)的二氧化碳排放量”;“森林覆盖率(%)”;和“全面的能源生产能力”。所有四个能源和气候相关指标都标记为“结合”。资料来源:从NPC发布的14FYP的适应草案的屏幕截图(2021)。

Specifically, as shown in the table above, the outline requires an 13.5% reduction in the nation’s energy consumption per unit of GDP – also known as “energy intensity” – during the 2021-25 period and a 18% cut in its CO2 emissions per unit of GDP, also known as “CO2 emissions intensity”. (just below the table of indicators).

这outline calls for an improvement of the forest coverage rate from23.4%在2020年至24.1%。此外,它预计该国的总能源产量将达到460亿吨煤炭,石油,天然气和非化石能量的煤炭。以前的五年计划在能源产量而不是最低水平上设定了一个上限。

这first three of these binding energy and climate goals are considered “green ecology” targets, while the fourth, on energy production, is categorised as security-related.

这14.FYP outline proposes to increase the share of non-fossil energy in total energy consumption to around 20% by 2025, up from15.8%在2020年。然而,这没有标记为“指标”,这意味着它既不是指指示性也不是由性质结合。

提出的百分比符合政治承​​诺十二月十二月十二月十二月大于2030年的雄心所欲近,XI提出了2030年的野心。谢务证明中国将增加份额约25%。迄今为止,中国尚未正式提交增强的NDC联合国气候变化框架公约(UNFCCC),尽管截止日期为2020年底。

一种s for climate change, the 14FYP outline reaffirms the implementation of the NDC for 2030 without listing specific new targets. It also demands that the nation formulates an action plan on how to peak CO2 emission before 2030, as soon as possible.

In describing the long-term prospects for 2035, it repeats Xi’s政治承​​诺12月份,“二氧化碳排放达到峰值后稳步下降”。xi在2060年之前描述了中国碳中立目标时使用了完全相同的话。

同时,14个概述介绍了“现代能源系统的建设项目”列表。它涵盖了六个关键的能源发展领域,包括建设八个大型清洁能源“基础”,沿海核电,电力传输路线,电力系统灵活性,油气运输和储存能力。关键项目的地理分布在下面的地图中说明。

The-14Fyp-utline-提出 - 建设的八大清洁能源基地 - 中国
14个概述提出了跨越中国八大清洁能源基地的建设(虚线概述的橙色区域)。它还映射了一个计划,将这些基地从这些基地转移到中国 - 国家最繁荣的省和工业基地都位于所谓的电力传输路线(“隧道”)。蓝色箭头代表要在14个差异期间建造并投入使用的项目。红色箭头代表了由13个差异在14个差异期间运行时计划的那些。灰色线代表已经构造的主电力传输线。主要发电中心由燃料说明,如下:水电(蓝色水涡轮机),海上风(蓝色风力涡轮机),化石燃料热力(红色),核(棕色),陆上风(绿色风力涡轮机)和太阳能电力(黑色)。资料来源:屏幕截图,用于调整NPC发布的第14个FYP的草案(2021)。

碳简介采访的专家表示,关于气候行动的更详细的目亚慱官网标,例如CO2排放控制目标(“二氧化碳排放盖”)最有可能在14码上披露greenhouse gas emission control and prevention

类似于12种和13个差价,专家期望能源部门的更详细的目标,例如煤炭消费和生产可再生能源开发利用,和electrification rate and electricity power structure,在未来一年内宣布发布议会及尼亚发布的部门具体计划。

此外,Mee还有launched制定“峰值发射峰发射的行动计划”requiresprovincial governments to formulate a “provincial peak emission action plan” by April 2021.

根据技术指南,这将包括一系列详细指标 - 如下屏幕截图所示 - 例如总能耗,能源混合,总能耗中的化石燃料份额,以及双CO2排放盖 - 强度和绝对排放 - ON行业,建筑,运输,农业和家园。

表明省级峰值排放行动计划草案所需的一些核心指标所需的核心指标
一份表格,列出了“省级峰值排放行动计划”草案需要编制和计算的一些核心指标。它们将于2021年4月提交给MEE。资料来源:会议发布的《省级二氧化碳排放峰值行动计划编制指南》截图。

什么是未答复的问题?

这14.FYP outline has left many unanswered questions concerning China’s energy transition and its efforts to tackle climate change. For example, the outline stresses that the nation should implement a cap system that is “based primarily on carbon intensity control, with the absolute carbon cap as a supplement”. Yet, the outline does not give an exact number on the CO2 emission cap.

回应一些国际观察员注释on the outline being “conservative”, or lacking strict measures, Chinese experts interviewed by Carbon Brief say they expect such details to be clarified in the 14FYP’s forthcoming sector-specific and regional plans. The Ministry of Ecology and Environment ()will set targets for nationwide greenhouse gas emission controls between late 2021 and early 2022.

某些国际的coverageof the outline has drawn onyabo亚博体育app下载suggesting the plan could allow China’s emissions to continue increasing at the rate of1-1.7%每年直到2025年。

Such analysis shows the energy and CO2 intensity targets could still be met, even as overall emissions increase, depending on the rate of GDP growth over the plan period. Notably, however, the 14FYP outline drops a five year GDP growth target in favour of year-by-year goals, meaning such emissions calculations are uncertain.

下表取自yabo亚博体育app下载published byLauri Myllyvirta.Centre for Research and Clean Air,根据三种不同水平的GDP增长,这表明了各种目标可能发生什么。

GDP增长,每年2022-2025 5% 5.5% 6.0%
活力intensity reduction 2020-2025 -13.5% -13.5% -13.5%
总能源消耗增长,每年2021-2025 2.3% 2。7% 3.1%
二氧化碳强度减少2020-20 -18.9% -18.9% -18.9%
煤consumption growth, 2021-2025, per year 0.1% 0.5% 0.9%
石油消费增长,2021-2025年,每年 2。7% 3.1% 3.。5%
Gas consumption growth, 2021-2025, per year 5.2% 5.6% 6.0%
非化石燃料能源产量增长,每年2021-2025 7.1% 7.5% 7.9%
CO2 emissions growth, 2021-2025, per year 1.0% 1.4% 1.7%
Indicative calculations of China’s energy consumption and CO2 emissions trends until 2025 under the five-year plan targets, depending on the GDP growth rate. Source: Screenshot from analysis published by Centre for Research and Clean Air (CREA).

同样,一些观察者和媒体表达了失望关于缺乏关于煤炭淘汰的清晰语言。例如,缺少能量混合中煤炭的份额,也是总煤炭消耗控制目标(“煤盖”)。后者,首先介绍13个关于能源发展2016年出版,是一个“绑定指标”,这需要总能耗的煤炭消耗百分比从64%下降到5年以上。

闵胡,创新绿色发展计划执行董事(iGDP)那points out that an “energy consumption cap” already existed in previous energy规划对于2030个能量革命,该革命设定了2030年“不超过6亿吨标准煤”的总控制目标。

她补充说,如果即将到来的能源发展计划纳入其中的计划,则煤炭消费将需要略微下降14个差外期间建议- 例如来自中国的能源研究中心国家网格- 稳步减少煤炭消耗量的主要能量下降57%2020年到around 50%by 2025. However, this still represents100-200吉格瓦斯(GW) of new coal-plant capacity.

福强杨博士是一个杰出的研究员Institute of Clean Energyat Peking University, underlines the “superior” political priority for the Chinese government of achieving an emissions peak and, ultimately, carbon neutrality. He believes that, as a result, a “coal cap” for 2021-2025 will eventually be announced in the subsequent FYP on energy development and coal development, which the National Development and Reform Council (NDRC)和National Energy Administration (国家能源局)现在正在制定。

他补充说,即使没有明确的“煤炭上限”,该纲要关于能源的约束性指标仍将对限制煤炭消费及其在能源结构中的份额产生实际影响。他向Carbon Brief解释道:亚慱官网

“Based on current targets, by 2025, non-fossil energy will definitely reach 20%. Natural gas steadily increases by 3% every five years, so we can assume that it will reach 11.5% in 2025 and oil may account for 18.5%. Under the [non-fossil energy] target, the share of coal in the energy mix must [therefore] be reduced to at least 50% or below – and I think it’d be very likely to drop to 48%, in comparison to 56.8% in 2020.”

Despite the absence of the “coal cap” and CO2 emission cap, Min Hu still thinks the outline sends out a “very important signal”. She tells Carbon Brief:

“When China added ‘CO2 intensity’ to the existing ‘energy intensity’-based control targets in the十一五规划,很多人也认为它纯粹是数学运动。但这是一个大转点 - 对于中国的气候行动,14fyp轮廓也是如此。实现这一步骤是一段非常困难的旅程。毕竟,系统内仍有很大的反对。“

Professor Ji Zou,非政府组织能源基金会(EFC)的首席执行官和主席同意,这些目标不会“轻松”。他说,直到2020年代初,政策制定者及其顾问仍然有很多争论,以纳入低碳发展目标将为“经济的大震撼”。Covid-19锁定后的经济放缓使决定更加困难。他讲碳简短:亚慱官网

“辩论非常激烈:一方面推动了更多的低碳指标和更雄心勃勃的目标,而另一方则坚持降低增压以深化市场经济改革。犹豫持续到去年夏天结束,终于在进一步脱碳的强烈政治决定下实现了势头。在秋季,顶级领导地位为14场比赛设定了音调:该计划不仅继续降低低碳发展路径,还要加快转型,特别是将碳中立碳的目标纳入规划中。“

In addition, the 14FYP outline specifies that China should “strive to increase the storage and production of oil and gas” and “accelerate the construction of natural gas network pipelines”. This is consistent with China’s national policy on煤气“在空气污染的双重压力下”控制和预防“那as well asenergy and CO2 intensity reduction

Most recently, the “NO1中央文件“由CCCPC和国务院在2021年共同发布,还列出了”促进天然气进入农村地区“,作为清洁能源基础设施项目的一部分。

江林博士是加州大学的中国能源专家 - 伯克利讲述了碳简介,即天然气一直在辩论的能源转型中心。亚慱官网讨论部分由天然气的作用部分引起,作为更换煤的“过渡能量”的形式。由于天然气是化石燃料的事实,它也被高碳锁定的潜在危险产生了它。他补充说:

“天然气对减少空气污染并满足某些情况下对力量的最佳需求进行积极贡献。但是,如果我们想达到净零的未来,我们也必须将自然气体的排放量降至零。[继续开发天然气]不是在长期内与碳中立目标对齐的100%。“

Will the 14FYP keep China on track to meet its climate pledges?

中国碳简介中采访的中国能源和气候专家表示,中国是“轨道”,以满足2030年达到峰值排放的承诺,尽管许多人认为中国将达亚慱官网到2060年的碳中立目标需要更多的努力。

邹教授说,他“完全有信心”,中国将在2030年之前实现高峰排放目标。

一种studyfrom December 2020 reviewed the available scenarios under which China could reach net-zero emissions by 2060. It concluded that an 18-20% reduction of CO2 intensity during the 14FYP period would put the country on the trajectory towards carbon neutrality by 2060 and would be consistent with a 1.5C temperature rise globally, as shown in the chart below.

关于1.5C和2C的CO2减排轨迹所选模型的综述
对1.5C和2C的CO2减排轨迹所选模型的综述。大多数情景项目,中国可能在2030年之前看到二氧化碳排放峰值,甚至在2025年之前。资料来源:能源基金会中国(2020.)。

这项研究由EFC由一群中国和国际气候科学家撰写,包括国务院和国家发展和改革委员会的顾问(NDRC),以及三个政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC.)联合主席和引导作者。

Zou教授补充说,当几年来评估14个差异时,实际减少将“超越20%”,有一个“非常大的机会”。他解释说:

“The current target (18% of CO2 emission intensity reduction in 14FYP) is at the lower end of the range [needed to be consistent with a 1.5C pathway], which means it’s already aiming for an ambitious goal. Besides, we also need to look at the possibility of overachievement: if you break down the 2% into five years, it means a mere 0.4% of additional reduction [each year].”

邹教授向“国际同事”上诉,以获得更严格的气候目标和雄心勃勃的政策是明智的,但他们也反映了中国政治进程的一般误解,并在未来四十年内实现了整体战略目标。他讲碳简短:亚慱官网

“It’s too early to say whether the 14FYP is ambitious enough for carbon neutrality in 2060. We are standing at the beginning of a five year plan. We can’t simply conclude whether China could achieve the goal in 40 years based on its performance in five years, which is only one-eighth of the length up to 2060. We have to look at the trajectory forward.”

Dr Lin, who has carried out several modelling research projects into China’s decarbonisation scenarios, says based on the research findings, it is “highly possible” for China to peak its emissions by 2030. He also thinks the country’s decarbonisation transition would刺激经济增长并带来一系列额外的福利,例如创造更多的工作。

China exceeded the CO2 intensity reduction targets of the previous two five year plans, as shown in the chart below. China first introduced the five year CO2 intensity reduction control target as a “binding” indicator of its five year plans in2011年

To date, a total of three targets have been announced, namely, the 12FYP (2011-2015), 13FYP (2016-2020) and 14FYP (2021-2025), as shown in dark blue. In reality, China overperformed on this target twice in row, as shown in red.

CO2 intensity targets in the 12FYP 13FYP and 14FYP versus actual performance
12场(2011-2015),13FYP(2016-2020)和14FYP(2021-2025)与实际性能(红色)中的CO2强度目标(蓝色)。对于14个QFYP,预期性能的投影显示为粉红色。资料来源:国务院(2011年,2016年,2021年)和清华国际刑警署(2020.)。Produced by Carbon Brief using高级园林

For the current 14FYP period, China is expected to once again overachieve with an estimated 19.4% reduction in CO2 intensity, according to research by 18 leading climate science institutes in China, led by Tsinghua University’s Institute of Climate Change and Sustainable Development (ICCSD). This reduction would put China on a path to overachieving the CO2 intensity target in its NDC for 2030, the research suggests.

闵胡如果人们只看出在14FYP轮廓的“有限指标”或任何外观上 - 未承认中国过去的超前成立,那么中国的气候行动将不是中国气候行动的“公平判断”。

“回顾,大多数目标 - 从可再生能源装机容量到二氧化碳强度 - 经过表现。我们无法简单地根据14FYP轮廓所示的目标计算轨迹,并说他们不足以[2060气候中性承诺]。“

Dr Yang, who has spent the past four decades working on energy and climate policies in China, has a different view. He says he fully understands the “conservative considerations” from the top policymakers, who usually do not make promises they cannot fulfill – a logic that is deeply rooted in China’s political culture. Nevertheless, Dr Yang calls for more ambitious targets and “daring” thinking from the nation’s leaders, due to the urgency of climate change. He tells Carbon Brief:

“将目标提升到19%怎么样?即使它不会完全实现 - 说,在18.5% - 它仍然不是一个不好的交易。许多发达国家已发表严格的目标,以至于他们最终不会达到迎接,但他们提供了明确的努力方向。“

一种ccording to Prof Zou, expected improvements in CO2 intensity mean that most provinces in China could reach peak emissions, or come close to it, during the 14FYP period, based on a yet-to-be-published study compiled by the Energy Foundation China. With provinces and cities that contribute around 80% of China’s emission “having peaked” or “expected to peak before 2025”, he believes achieving nationwide peak emissions during the 14FYP is a “low-hanging fruit”.

为什么14FYP未设置“碳帽”?

这lack of a formal “cap” on carbon emissions is, perhaps, one of the most confusing parts of the 14FYP outline.

尽管轮廓没有设定碳帽,但它确实说,中国将“实施系统主要基于碳强控制,碳帽作为补充”。

Given that China has not proposed a carbon cap, how can it be used to supplement the plan?

中国国家主席九金平在北京人民大会堂出席了国家人民国会的开幕式
中国国家主席九金平在北京人民大会堂出席了国家人民国会的开幕式。Credit: Newscom / Alamy Stock Photo.

一些中国专家告诉碳简介,他们认为政府很快就会愿意引入排放帽亚慱官网。然而,由于两个问题,此类目标难以在目前执行。

First, a top-down approach would not address the reality faced by local officials. Second, China does not currently have enough detailed research on how to achieve “carbon neutrality” in order to support the government in coming up with an overall carbon cap.

In the past, the central government has used mandatory top-down instructions to resolve issues surrounding energy consumption and energy intensity. But there have been substantial disadvantages and setbacks, such as cutting of power supplies to meet targets.

福强杨博士from Peking University says the Chinese government has learned from this experience with regard to setting a carbon cap.

在13场比赛中,中国介绍了“双控制”的政策,要求每个联合国能源消耗it of GDP – energy intensity – be reduced by 15% by 2020 compared with 2015. The policy also required that total energy consumption remained under 5bn tonnes of标准煤当量(tce)。国务院随后将全国“双控”目标划分为各省目标。

然而,杨博士说:“在国家能源局只有少数员工的情况下,如何合理地分解(并实施)这些目标?”

He adds that many provinces were unsatisfied, saying the goals were unrealistic, which caused serious consequences. For example, Zhejiang province, which is just south of Shanghai, resorted tolimiting electricity consumption甚至在2020年底切断电力以实现其目标。这迫使许多工厂停止生产,留下大量居民而不在冬季加热。

Yang博士说,该计划使用“碳帽as a supplement” demonstrates that a cap will eventually be set up during the 14FYP period. But he believes that the formulation of the cap will not be top-down, but rather bottom-up, which means that the central government will not set an overall cap and then send individual targets to the provinces.

相反,每个省和部门都将确定自己的目标,然后将其汇总到国家碳帽中。他说这是一个“更可靠的计划”。

Ma Jun是公共和环境研究所的主任(IPE.)那an environmental research NGO based in Beijing, agrees with Dr Yang. Ma says that there are also some “technical reasons” for China not to mention a carbon cap in the 14FYP. For example, there is little research to date into how China can best achieve its new carbon neutrality goal.

马马说,实现碳中立性的目标比达峰排放更重要。IPE的研究发现它实际上是“很容易”到达排放峰值,这可能忍受碳密集型项目的建设。MA称之为“低质量峰”。但这种措施没有帮助在长期内实现碳中立。事实上,它可以使目标更加困难。马俊告诉碳简介:亚慱官网

“优质峰值是为随后碳中和提供有利条件的关键。然而,目前对高质量峰值的研究仍然不足。“

帽:'自下而上'方法会导致漏洞?

但是,从“自上而下”到“自下而上”规划,其中每个省份都设有自己的碳帽,导致宽松排放目标?

是的,据中国专家说。

嘉华博士潘是中国社会科学院的成员,亚慱彩票APP在会议上说2021年1月:

“最近,一位当地官员告诉我,碳峰不会难以实现。如果我们在14码和15个差点期间建立了一批高碳项目,然后停止后,我们不会轻易达到这种碳峰值吗?“

吉南博士王,中国工程院和生态环境部环境规划研究所的院长成员,具有类似的观点。他在一个人中说面试with China Energy News, a state-affiliated media, in January:

“Many provinces believe that the use of fossil energy can continue to be substantially increased before 2030. They are even planning to first reach a new and higher peak of carbon emissions during the 14FYP and will only consider the decline after reaching the ‘new peak’.”

帽:漏洞如何关闭?

杨博士表示,地方政府通知的任何目标都确实非常松散,但最终的说法仍然伴随着中央政府。中央政府不仅会密切审查地方政府提出的目标,还将将其作为基准评估当地官员的表现。

He says carbon intensity is viewed as a binding indicator for provincial leaders. So, if a governor fails to meet this goal, they will lose their job. By comparison, a carbon peak is a guiding indicator. So, if two governors have both met their carbon intensity goals, then the one who is deemed to have performed better in peaking carbon emissions may get a promotion.

杨博士表示,这类似于国际气候协定如何工作。这京都议定书was a top-down, compulsory allocation of targets to countries and some haveargued它没有成功。现在,下面巴黎协议,它已经转变为自下而上的方法,各国每五年根据所谓的“国家数据中心”提出自己的国家数据中心棘轮机制“。

“Otherwise, negotiations may still be ongoing,” he says.

自下而上的方式与中国独特的治理体制密切相关,尤其是中央和地方政府之间的权力争斗。胡敏博士说,重要的是要鼓励地方当局制定比中央政府制定的目标更严格的目标。她说,只有当地方目标更高时,中央政府的这些政策才能实现。她补充道:

“以排放量达到峰值为例,大家都预计中国将在2025年达到峰值。如果各省都把2025年定为目标,即使中央没有公布这样的时间表,全国还是有可能提前实现这个目标。”

但是MA希望使用另一种方法可以关闭漏洞。IPE.与之合作Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciencesto study the establishment of a “碳峰值/中立指数“这 - 作为限制误导自我报告的努力 - 使用关键指标来衡量进展和监控所有省和行业,以确保他们以负责任和所谓的”高质量“方式达到最低限度的排放。

帽:如何实现“高质量峰”?

马英九认为,应该提前制定“见顶时间表”:“见顶的时机非常重要。越早达到峰值,就越晚可以限制碳排放。”

EFC ZOU教授认为,实现所需的排放减少需求许多涉及多个部门的结构变化,包括电力,重工业,运输,建筑和土地利用。所有这些更改都需要时间。

例如,降低功耗并最初增加非化石能源将相对较慢。这一切都需要对各种问题进行大规模的技术和金融投资,例如网格灵活性和储能。

But once past the “tipping point”, carbon emission will drop at accelerated speeds, says Prof Zou. He adds:

“This is similar to changing of direction for a giant ship. It will be slow for the ship to overcome inertia and turn around, but once it’s turned around, it will speed up.”

Compared to establishing goals, he says it is more important to consider the levels of policy enforcement, infrastructure construction and technological support.

来自这个故事的Sharelines
  • 问答:中国第14届五年计划对气候变化的意思是什么?

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