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一个1mw太阳能电站的工人在一家电公司的屋顶在德里,印度。 信用:Ashley Cooper Pics / Alamy股票照片。

IEA: India is on ‘cusp of a solar-powered revolution’

Josh Gabbatiss

Josh Gabbatiss

Josh Gabbatiss

Josh Gabbatiss

09.02.2021 |下午4:34
活力 IEA: India is on ‘cusp of a solar-powered revolution’



IEA的India Energy Outlook 2021发现世界第三大发射器的能源需求将在接下来的二十年内扩大比任何其他国家都在努力,将欧盟介绍为第三大消费者。

Under existing policies, India’s emissions are also expected to grow by 50% during this period, offsetting all the cuts in European emissions.

Even then, its per-capita emissions will still be “well below” the global average, the IEA says, given that India has the world’s second largest populace with anestimated1。3.9bn people.

The report also considers how a combination of coal shutdowns and new technologies, such ashydrogen和carbon capture, could get India on a path to net-zero emissions for its energy sector by the mid-2060s.

随着国家延续工业化和扩大其城市,IEA执行董事Fatih Birol博士说,“成功的全球清洁能源过渡的所有道路都通过印度”。




It states that India’s energy system is “characterised by the co‐existence of shortage and abundance”.

The nation has the world’s fifth-largest coal reserves and is a major centre for oil refining. But is also heavily reliant on imported coal and oil. Meanwhile, it has a surplus of electricity generation, as many people still face an unreliable supply.

On a per-capita basis, India’s energy use and emissions are less than half the global average. The contrast between India’s per-capita emissions and its dirty power sector can be seen in the chart below.

CO2 emissions per capita and emissions intensity of electricity generation by region in 2020
CO2 emissions per capita (bars) and emissions intensity of electricity generation (purple dots) by region in 2020. Source: IEA.

印度也贡献了far less historically气候变化而不是欧洲和北美的发达国家,但作为报告说明,它是“已经感受到了[”效果“。



虽然国家的煤炭依赖是显示标志of diminishing, coal-fired power remains the biggest single contributor to Indian emissions.

二氧化碳排放 - 从印度 - 能源区 -  2019年,-MTCO2

The agency also notes that, under current policies, 60% of India’s CO2 emissions in the late 2030s will be from infrastructure and machines that do not exist today, meaning there is a “huge opening” for green policies to curb these future emissions.

The report states that India is in “a unique position to pioneer a new model for low-carbon, inclusive growth” that is already “evident” in some aspects of the government’s plans:

“If this can be done, it will show the way for a whole group of energy-hungry developing economies, by demonstrating that robust economic expansion is fully compatible with an increasing pace of emissions reductions and the achievement of other development goals.”

该报告包括对印度的不同IEA情景选择,包括其“规定的政策情景” (STEPS, formerly NPS) which takes into account existing policies and sees emissions steadily rising so they are 50% higher in 2040 than in 2019.

还有一个“delayed recovery scenario” (DRS) which shows the effects of a lingering Covid-19 pandemic on the economy.

The report also has a special “Indian vision case” (IVC), which is based on a “more complete realisation of India’s stated energy policy objectives”, as well as a faster pace of economic growth than STEPS (achieving a GDP of $9.8tn by 2040 compared to $8.6tn in STEPS).

最后,报告认为国际能源署的“可持续le development scenario” (SDS), in which the same economic growth as STEPS is achieved, but with “an additional surge in clean energy investment” that means emissions peak and decline earlier. The emissions pathways tracked by the STEPS, SDS and IVC can be seen below.



经过重大经济体,包括China, 这欧洲联盟日本, all came forward with net-zero emission plans at the end of last year, the SDS is also highlighted as a pathway that could take India’s energy sector to a similar target.

对于印度的能源相关的二氧化碳排放,SDS是“与净零的长期驱动”一致,到2060年代中期到达目标。(IEA也在努力Net-Zero到2050report, due later this year, that will cover India among other countries.)



The IEA estimates spending on clean energy technologies would need to be 70% higher in the SDS than in STEPS, meaning an additional $1.4tn over the next 20 years. However, it notes this would come with “huge” savings, too, including on oil import bills which would cancel out the spending altogether.

根据IEA的说法,印度已经在轨道上超出了其所作的承诺nationally determined contribution(NDC)下面巴黎协议


However, India hasyet tocome forward with a new, more ambitious target, as required by the end of last year under the terms of the Paris Agreement.

Elements of what will be required for India to push further can be found in the IVC and even more so in the SDS, the report’s lead authorTim Gouldtells Carbon Brief:

“The one thing that is clear moving ahead very quickly is the addition of renewables in the power sector…that explosive growth of solar in power, it deals to a large extent with the implications of rapid growth in electricity demand.

He says, when considering the growth in energy demand from industry, there are various options, including hydrogen, energy-efficiency improvements and carbon capture and storage (CCS):


该报告补充说,“比在先进经济中更多,印度的未来排放概况大幅取决于尚未建造或购买的基础设施 - 特别是在工业和运输中”。

印度Mejia火电站的冷却塔。信用:Abir Roy Barman / Alamy股票照片。



According toSunil Dahiya,一个分析师Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air(CREA):



Bharath Jairaj., energy director at theWorld Resources Institute印度,同意,虽然某些部门可能会朝着净零,但行业等其他人不可能与这些野心保持一致:



The report describes the rise of solar power in India as “spectacular” and says India is on the “cusp of a solar‐powered revolution”.



Under current policies, solar is set to overtake coal around 2040 with both technologies at around 30% of generation. In the SDS, this switchover will happen even sooner, as the chart below shows.

煤与太阳能的变化作为2000  -  2010年国际能源机构使用的不同途径中印度发电的份额
2000 - 2010年间国际能源机构(IEA)使用的不同途径中的煤与太阳能的变化。碳简介使用的图表亚慱官网高级园林

This shift is being driven in part by the nation’s policy ambitions. Prime minister Narendra Modi has said the nation会到达4.50GW of renewable generation by 2030.


Overall, in this scenario, India will add power capacity the size of the EU’s over the next two decades, with solar and wind accounting for more than three-quarters of this growth, the report states. There will also be an extra 25GW of nuclear power and 50GW of hydro.

IEA的last World Energy Outlook描述最好的太阳能电力项目,如在新报告中再次突出显示“历史上的最便宜”和这种“非凡的成本竞争力”。



It lists the flexible operation of coal plants and “robust grids” as possibilities for dealing with this. Wind power can also complement solar during the monsoon season when solar resources are relatively low.

However, batteries are highlighted as a particularly appealing solution, with the report noting that solar is expected to compete on costs with coal by 2030, even when paired with battery storage which can increase the initial costs. This can be seen in the chart below.

Value-adjusted levelised cost of coal and new solar, with or without batteries in India in the STEPS in 2020 and 2030

In both STEPS, IVC and SDS, the IEA concludes that India is set to become the world’s largest market for batteries.

In STEPS, the market for batteries, solar panels and wind turbines develops to more than $40bn per year, meaning one in every seven dollars spent in the world on these technologies will be in India, compared to one in every 20 today.


但是,在SDS Power-Singector排放量从2019年从2040年下降了80% - 并且在2050年的IVC中接近Net-Zero - 在IVC中仍然是相同的。

This is because, while solar accounts for the large expansion in demand, it does not eat into existing demand or displace coal-fired power in IVC.



There is currently a 100GW pipeline of approved coal‐fired power plants, including those under construction, but, according to the report, “it is difficult to see many of these being built”.

煤量发射功率是最暴露在拒绝我n electricity consumption last year due to Covid-19, but the report notes the industry’s challenges pre-dated the pandemic. The utilisation of coal plants fell from more than 70% in 2010 to 55% in 2019.

Efforts to tackle air pollution, diversify the energy mix and take advantage of the plummeting costs of renewables have all contributed to lower expectations for coal in India.

煤炭demand in STEPS is a third lower in 2040 than the IEA projected in 2019, with net capacity growth across this period of 25GW compared to an additional 690GW of solar. This “major revision” was already evident in the IEA’s World Energy Outlook last year.

Nevertheless, in STEPS, the total coal-fired capacity does not begin to decline until the 2030s. In SDS, the peak for coal comes much sooner in the 2020s, as existing plants are retired early, retrofitted with CCS to cut emissions or repurposed to provide system flexibility.





“CCS may be very unlikely due to cost, but system flexibility and retirement of power plants are currently being discussed at various levels. Co-firing [with biomass] is limited to few plants, it’s not a main discussion point.”


在IVC中,大约40个煤电 - 截至2019年的10%占总需求的10% - 由2040年的天然气流离失所。通过比较,在步骤中,天然气被限制在工业用途和城市分布。



印度气体需求增长对2019  -  2019  -  2040年间步骤,IVC和SDS情景的二氧化碳排放
印度气体需求增长对2019 - 2019 - 2040年间步骤,IVC和SDS情景的二氧化碳排放。Overall change in CO2 emissions is indicated by the orange dots. Source: IEA.



现在煤炭未来的电力系统看起来particularly unstable, suppliers are increasingly looking to industrial sources. India’s industry has been the main source of growth in energy demand since 2000 and around half of this has been met by coal.

在Jharkhand印度提取煤的工人。信用:erberto zani / alamy股票照片。

jai博士asundi, executive director of Indian thinktank theCentre for Study of Science, Technology and Policy(CSTEP), tells Carbon Brief:

“With steel, cement, etc, production is expected to increase [and] replacing coal will be a real challenge. The answer lies in technology – be it hydrogen, storage, etc – that will allow for cleaner production and distribution, which, in turn, will mean no holding back on GDP growth.”

索伦迪说政府的recent budget已经解决了解决技术需求的方法,包括氢气的需要和研究基金的创建。但是,他说技术的许可可能是一个问题。


Around 10% of coal consumed in India is used for non-power functions, such as coking coal for steel, but Dahiya says he can still envisage a coal phaseout in the coming decades:

“If we assume that India would phase out thermal coal in the next two to three decades and, during that time, suitable alternatives emerge for coking coal, then its a real possibility.”





在Madurai,印度繁忙的街道。信用:db图像/ alamy股票照片。


两个或三个轮式车辆 - 摩托车,摩托车和人力车 - 弥补了四分之四的印度公路库存,并在电气化方面取得了一些进展。步骤看到这些较小车辆的一半电气化为2040。



Passenger cars and two/three wheeled vehicle sales in the STEPS, IVC and SDS scenarios (yellow dots), with percentage of different fuel types indicated by coloured bars. Source: IEA.

Lead IEA作者Tim Gould讲述碳简短个人运输只是图片亚慱官网的一部分:

“One of the things that comes through very strongly on the transport side is the importance of freight and the contributions of trucks to India’s growth in oil demand is really quite significant…One thing we would like to highlight is the possibility to shift more of that freight onto India’s railways.”

There is a target in place for100%电气化印度铁路2022年,2019年的51%。



Building, cooling and cooking




孟买的房间块与空调单位。信用:蒂姆格雷厄姆/ alamy股票照片。

In 2019, the nation had what the IEA called a “remarkable achievement” when it reached near-universal household connectivity to electricity. In a similar push, there are plans to phase out much of the use of traditional biomass – mainly firewood – as a cooking and heating fuel across India.

This will also cut emissions as cleaner alternatives, such as electric heaters, are used instead, a trend shown in the chart below.

2019 - 2019 - 2019年间,印度住宅建筑的能源需求变动,随着逐步淘汰的传统生物量而导致黄色的传统生物质,逐步降低。来源:IEA。




Appliance ownership in Indian households in the STEPS scenario
Appliance ownership in Indian households in the STEPS scenario. Source: IEA.

Efforts are underway in India to strengthen minimum performance standards of air conditioners, according to the IEA.


  • IEA: India is on ‘cusp of a solar-powered revolution’
  • IEA:太阳能在印度正在进行“爆炸性增长”



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