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Workers-at-a-1MW-solar-power-station-run-by-Tata-Power-on-the-roof-of-an-electricity-company-in-Delhi,-India
一个1mw太阳能电站的工人在一家电公司的屋顶在德里,印度。 信用:Ashley Cooper Pics / Alamy股票照片。
活力
2021年2月9日16:34

IEA: India is on ‘cusp of a solar-powered revolution’

Josh Gabbatiss

Josh Gabbatiss

02.09.21.
Josh Gabbatiss

Josh Gabbatiss

09.02.2021 |下午4:34
活力 IEA: India is on ‘cusp of a solar-powered revolution’

根据国际能源机构(IEA)的说法,印度正在进入“太阳能革命”,这将看到它作为国家顶部电力来源的煤炭。

太阳能目前仅占全国电源的4%,但它必须增长18倍,并且至少在2040年成为新的“印度国王的一代舰队”。

IEA的India Energy Outlook 2021发现世界第三大发射器的能源需求将在接下来的二十年内扩大比任何其他国家都在努力,将欧盟介绍为第三大消费者。

Under existing policies, India’s emissions are also expected to grow by 50% during this period, offsetting all the cuts in European emissions.

Even then, its per-capita emissions will still be “well below” the global average, the IEA says, given that India has the world’s second largest populace with anestimated1。3.9bn people.

The report also considers how a combination of coal shutdowns and new technologies, such ashydrogen和carbon capture, could get India on a path to net-zero emissions for its energy sector by the mid-2060s.

随着国家延续工业化和扩大其城市,IEA执行董事Fatih Birol博士说,“成功的全球清洁能源过渡的所有道路都通过印度”。

下面,碳简介总亚慱官网结了IEA报告的主要发现和预测。

能源期货

在Covid-19流行病的影响之后,新报告为印度制定了各种可能的“能源期货”。

It states that India’s energy system is “characterised by the co‐existence of shortage and abundance”.

The nation has the world’s fifth-largest coal reserves and is a major centre for oil refining. But is also heavily reliant on imported coal and oil. Meanwhile, it has a surplus of electricity generation, as many people still face an unreliable supply.

On a per-capita basis, India’s energy use and emissions are less than half the global average. The contrast between India’s per-capita emissions and its dirty power sector can be seen in the chart below.

CO2 emissions per capita and emissions intensity of electricity generation by region in 2020
CO2 emissions per capita (bars) and emissions intensity of electricity generation (purple dots) by region in 2020. Source: IEA.

印度也贡献了far less historically气候变化而不是欧洲和北美的发达国家,但作为报告说明,它是“已经感受到了[”效果“。

与此同时,印度作为一个主要的全球经济的地位和世界第三大发射器意味着清理其能源供应对于达到全球气候目标至关重要。

印度的能源使用在过去二十年中翻了一番,煤炭,油和固体生物量达到了80%的需求。IEA预计它将看到任何国家的能源需求增长最多,最高可达2040年。

虽然国家的煤炭依赖是显示标志of diminishing, coal-fired power remains the biggest single contributor to Indian emissions.

二氧化碳排放 - 从印度 - 能源区 -  2019年,-MTCO2
2019年印度能源部门的二氧化碳排放量MTCO2。来源:IEA。

The agency also notes that, under current policies, 60% of India’s CO2 emissions in the late 2030s will be from infrastructure and machines that do not exist today, meaning there is a “huge opening” for green policies to curb these future emissions.

The report states that India is in “a unique position to pioneer a new model for low-carbon, inclusive growth” that is already “evident” in some aspects of the government’s plans:

“If this can be done, it will show the way for a whole group of energy-hungry developing economies, by demonstrating that robust economic expansion is fully compatible with an increasing pace of emissions reductions and the achievement of other development goals.”

该报告包括对印度的不同IEA情景选择,包括其“规定的政策情景” (STEPS, formerly NPS) which takes into account existing policies and sees emissions steadily rising so they are 50% higher in 2040 than in 2019.

还有一个“delayed recovery scenario” (DRS) which shows the effects of a lingering Covid-19 pandemic on the economy.

The report also has a special “Indian vision case” (IVC), which is based on a “more complete realisation of India’s stated energy policy objectives”, as well as a faster pace of economic growth than STEPS (achieving a GDP of $9.8tn by 2040 compared to $8.6tn in STEPS).

最后,报告认为国际能源署的“可持续le development scenario” (SDS), in which the same economic growth as STEPS is achieved, but with “an additional surge in clean energy investment” that means emissions peak and decline earlier. The emissions pathways tracked by the STEPS, SDS and IVC can be seen below.

国际能源机构在其印度能源前景2021中使用的三个关键情景的排放轨迹
国际能源机构(IEA)在其印度能源前景2021中使用的三个关键情景的排放轨迹。资料来源:IEA。通过碳简短使用图表亚慱官网高级园林

Net-zero

经过重大经济体,包括China, 这欧洲联盟日本, all came forward with net-zero emission plans at the end of last year, the SDS is also highlighted as a pathway that could take India’s energy sector to a similar target.

对于印度的能源相关的二氧化碳排放,SDS是“与净零的长期驱动”一致,到2060年代中期到达目标。(IEA也在努力Net-Zero到2050report, due later this year, that will cover India among other countries.)

如果在印度将实施净零目标,则将在此目标中携带70%的二氧化碳排放量和世界上的一半以上的世界人口,正如下面的碳简短图表。亚慱官网

在包括印度的主要经济体中发现的主要指标的比例,黄色。
在包括印度的主要经济体中发现的主要指标的比例,黄色。资料来源:碳简介亚慱官网BP和世界银行数据。yabo亚博体育app下载使用的图表高级园林

The IEA estimates spending on clean energy technologies would need to be 70% higher in the SDS than in STEPS, meaning an additional $1.4tn over the next 20 years. However, it notes this would come with “huge” savings, too, including on oil import bills which would cancel out the spending altogether.

根据IEA的说法,印度已经在轨道上超出了其所作的承诺nationally determined contribution(NDC)下面巴黎协议

在步骤下,与NDC的33-35%的目标相比,印度经济的排放强度从2005年到2030年提高了40%,其可再生能源的发电量达到近60%,远高于40%的目标。

However, India hasyet tocome forward with a new, more ambitious target, as required by the end of last year under the terms of the Paris Agreement.

Elements of what will be required for India to push further can be found in the IVC and even more so in the SDS, the report’s lead authorTim Gouldtells Carbon Brief:

“The one thing that is clear moving ahead very quickly is the addition of renewables in the power sector…that explosive growth of solar in power, it deals to a large extent with the implications of rapid growth in electricity demand.

He says, when considering the growth in energy demand from industry, there are various options, including hydrogen, energy-efficiency improvements and carbon capture and storage (CCS):

“这项技术讨论的所有要素都在印度目前的政策辩论中。在推动所有杠杆的SDS中,这是一个问题,以减轻我们在步骤方案中的排放量的一些兴起。“

该报告补充说,“比在先进经济中更多,印度的未来排放概况大幅取决于尚未建造或购买的基础设施 - 特别是在工业和运输中”。

Mejia-Thermal-Power-Station,-india的冷却塔
印度Mejia火电站的冷却塔。信用:Abir Roy Barman / Alamy股票照片。

然而,与其他途径不同,SDS不仅避免了尽可能避免新的排放来源,也可以解决现有来源。这包括印度的年轻人和低效的煤炭植物,需要退休或改造以遵循这条路。

区域专家告诉碳简介,由于经济增长可能仍然是优亚慱官网先事项,他们对引入任何经济性净零目标持怀疑态度。印度的冠状病毒刺激计划亚博体育ios重点重点在化石燃料上。

According toSunil Dahiya,一个分析师Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air(CREA):

“从印度发生在经济复兴周围的当前事件中,印度似乎非常不可能承诺任何重大且实际意味着它。”

他补充说,较短的目标似乎更加可行,并指出印度可能在这十年中可能达到巨大的煤炭消费“(见下文)。

Bharath Jairaj., energy director at theWorld Resources Institute印度,同意,虽然某些部门可能会朝着净零,但行业等其他人不可能与这些野心保持一致:

“印度一直愿意犯下犯下和过度履行。我们用2030年的NDC目标看到了这一点。当然,事情可能会很快变化。“

'太阳能革命'

The report describes the rise of solar power in India as “spectacular” and says India is on the “cusp of a solar‐powered revolution”.

近年来,可再生能源部署已经在近年来上升,该国家在2015年在2015年增加了近五倍的太阳能产能。

正如它所说,太阳能占印度的电力发电量的4%左右,占地大约70%。

Under current policies, solar is set to overtake coal around 2040 with both technologies at around 30% of generation. In the SDS, this switchover will happen even sooner, as the chart below shows.

煤与太阳能的变化作为2000  -  2010年国际能源机构使用的不同途径中印度发电的份额
2000 - 2010年间国际能源机构(IEA)使用的不同途径中的煤与太阳能的变化。碳简介使用的图表亚慱官网高级园林

This shift is being driven in part by the nation’s policy ambitions. Prime minister Narendra Modi has said the nation会到达4.50GW of renewable generation by 2030.

报告说明,根据步骤,印度将在2040年至2040年增加900gW的可再生能力,大型公用事业级太阳能项目“引导”,报告说明。风也有望发挥作用,提高了200GW的这种增长。

Overall, in this scenario, India will add power capacity the size of the EU’s over the next two decades, with solar and wind accounting for more than three-quarters of this growth, the report states. There will also be an extra 25GW of nuclear power and 50GW of hydro.

IEA的last World Energy Outlook描述最好的太阳能电力项目,如在新报告中再次突出显示“历史上的最便宜”和这种“非凡的成本竞争力”。

2030年,目前的轨迹将导致太阳能对印度最现有的煤炭能力进行成本竞争力。新的太阳能比新的燃煤电厂更具竞争力。

该报告还指出,这种可再生一代的添加“必须伴随着电力系统的转变,以适应这种增长”,因为太阳能发电与阳光水平的变化波动。

It lists the flexible operation of coal plants and “robust grids” as possibilities for dealing with this. Wind power can also complement solar during the monsoon season when solar resources are relatively low.

However, batteries are highlighted as a particularly appealing solution, with the report noting that solar is expected to compete on costs with coal by 2030, even when paired with battery storage which can increase the initial costs. This can be seen in the chart below.

Value-adjusted levelised cost of coal and new solar, with or without batteries in India in the STEPS in 2020 and 2030
在2020年和2030年的步骤中,煤炭和新太阳能的价值调整的煤和新太阳能的成本,在印度中有或没有电池。橙色点表示价值调整的调整机构成本。来源:IEA。

In both STEPS, IVC and SDS, the IEA concludes that India is set to become the world’s largest market for batteries.

In STEPS, the market for batteries, solar panels and wind turbines develops to more than $40bn per year, meaning one in every seven dollars spent in the world on these technologies will be in India, compared to one in every 20 today.

IVC和SDS的一个关键特征甚至更加太阳能,分别为1,200gW和1,330gW。

但是,在SDS Power-Singector排放量从2019年从2040年下降了80% - 并且在2050年的IVC中接近Net-Zero - 在IVC中仍然是相同的。

This is because, while solar accounts for the large expansion in demand, it does not eat into existing demand or displace coal-fired power in IVC.

煤炭“持有它的抱”

经过60年的增长,该报告的结论是,“煤炭持有印度的电力部门宽松”。

There is currently a 100GW pipeline of approved coal‐fired power plants, including those under construction, but, according to the report, “it is difficult to see many of these being built”.

煤量发射功率是最暴露在拒绝我n electricity consumption last year due to Covid-19, but the report notes the industry’s challenges pre-dated the pandemic. The utilisation of coal plants fell from more than 70% in 2010 to 55% in 2019.

Efforts to tackle air pollution, diversify the energy mix and take advantage of the plummeting costs of renewables have all contributed to lower expectations for coal in India.

煤炭demand in STEPS is a third lower in 2040 than the IEA projected in 2019, with net capacity growth across this period of 25GW compared to an additional 690GW of solar. This “major revision” was already evident in the IEA’s World Energy Outlook last year.

Nevertheless, in STEPS, the total coal-fired capacity does not begin to decline until the 2030s. In SDS, the peak for coal comes much sooner in the 2020s, as existing plants are retired early, retrofitted with CCS to cut emissions or repurposed to provide system flexibility.

该报告识别这些现有煤炭厂的二氧化碳排放作为“弯曲印度排放曲线的单一最重要的方式”。采取这些行动关闭步骤和SDS之间的75%的排放差距。

这可以在下面的图表中看到,这表明由棕色,橙色和黄色区域表示的煤炭植物的作用减少,将煤炭陷入SDS中。

步骤与SDS之间的煤炭需求差异,
步骤与SDS之间的煤炭需求差异,棕色,橙色和黄色区域和灰色指示的工业用途表明燃煤发电厂。来源:IEA。

Dahiya目前在印度考虑了至少一些这些措施:

“CCS may be very unlikely due to cost, but system flexibility and retirement of power plants are currently being discussed at various levels. Co-firing [with biomass] is limited to few plants, it’s not a main discussion point.”

与印度政府旨在成为“天然气经济”,并规模使用气体一般,报告还考虑了这种化石燃料可以更换煤炭力量的作用。

在IVC中,大约40个煤电 - 截至2019年的10%占总需求的10% - 由2040年的天然气流离失所。通过比较,在步骤中,天然气被限制在工业用途和城市分布。

报告指出,天然气“本身就是气候变化的解决方案:它是自身权利的排放来源,新的天然气基础设施可以锁定未来的这些排放量”。

然而,它指出,在SDS中,印度是天然气使用高于步骤的唯一主要国家。作为下图所示,这导致50mtCO2降低排放,因为它取代了油和煤。

印度气体需求增长对2019  -  2019  -  2040年间步骤,IVC和SDS情景的二氧化碳排放
印度气体需求增长对2019 - 2019 - 2040年间步骤,IVC和SDS情景的二氧化碳排放。Overall change in CO2 emissions is indicated by the orange dots. Source: IEA.

该报告指出,在2000年代后期委托新电厂委托掌握新的海上天然气发现后,煤气在印度的电力部门面临着“完美风暴”,未能达到期望。它指出印度将受益于探索生物甲烷和氢气以及化石气体。

在扩大印度生物能源部门的报告中也有讨论,利用“农业部门产生的大量有机废物”,部分是在某些环境中取代煤炭。

现在煤炭未来的电力系统看起来particularly unstable, suppliers are increasingly looking to industrial sources. India’s industry has been the main source of growth in energy demand since 2000 and around half of this has been met by coal.

在Jharkhand印度提取煤的工人
在Jharkhand印度提取煤的工人。信用:erberto zani / alamy股票照片。

jai博士asundi, executive director of Indian thinktank theCentre for Study of Science, Technology and Policy(CSTEP), tells Carbon Brief:

“With steel, cement, etc, production is expected to increase [and] replacing coal will be a real challenge. The answer lies in technology – be it hydrogen, storage, etc – that will allow for cleaner production and distribution, which, in turn, will mean no holding back on GDP growth.”

索伦迪说政府的recent budget已经解决了解决技术需求的方法,包括氢气的需要和研究基金的创建。但是,他说技术的许可可能是一个问题。

“全球开发的技术必须适用于印度的清洁能源转换,”索伦迪说。

Around 10% of coal consumed in India is used for non-power functions, such as coking coal for steel, but Dahiya says he can still envisage a coal phaseout in the coming decades:

“If we assume that India would phase out thermal coal in the next two to three decades and, during that time, suitable alternatives emerge for coking coal, then its a real possibility.”

运输继续增长

今天,印度的人均车辆所有权仍然很低。随着更多印度的购买汽车,这是化石燃料需求和排放的最大增长领域之一。

在过去的三十年中,运输的能源使用增加了五倍,通过这一措施使其成为增长最快的部门。几乎所有这些需求都由石油产品满足。

在步骤中,印度在未来二十年内为化石燃料的组合进口票据,迄今为止,石油是最大的组成部分。

A-busy-street-in-Madurai,-India
在Madurai,印度繁忙的街道。信用:db图像/ alamy股票照片。

随着国家的功率混合变得更清洁,运输电气化的情况将更强大。目前,IEA表示印度电力的碳强度意味着有“没有切换到电动汽车的二氧化碳”。

两个或三个轮式车辆 - 摩托车,摩托车和人力车 - 弥补了四分之四的印度公路库存,并在电气化方面取得了一些进展。步骤看到这些较小车辆的一半电气化为2040。

但是,重要的是要注意,在它所立的情况下,它们只占总燃料消耗的大约五分之一。

SDS将雄心勃勃地为印度的运输转型,60%的汽车和较小的车辆电动电动速度为2040。它还包括整体销售的较少汽车。

Passenger-cars-and-two-three-wheeled-vehicle-sales-in-the-STEPS,-IVC-and-SDS-scenarios
Passenger cars and two/three wheeled vehicle sales in the STEPS, IVC and SDS scenarios (yellow dots), with percentage of different fuel types indicated by coloured bars. Source: IEA.

Lead IEA作者Tim Gould讲述碳简短个人运输只是图片亚慱官网的一部分:

“One of the things that comes through very strongly on the transport side is the importance of freight and the contributions of trucks to India’s growth in oil demand is really quite significant…One thing we would like to highlight is the possibility to shift more of that freight onto India’s railways.”

There is a target in place for100%电气化印度铁路2022年,2019年的51%。

2019年至2040年间步骤之间的二氧化碳排放双倍,其中大约三分之二来自货运车辆。在SDS中,道路排放开始在20世纪30年代下降,部分原因是由于使用生物燃料。

二氧化碳排放从步骤和SDS之间的道路运输减少
二氧化碳排放减少步骤和SDS之间的道路运输,包括公共汽车和两辆或三轮车辆(紫色),货运车辆(黄色)和乘用车(橙色)。来源:IEA。

Building, cooling and cooking

印度在未来几十年中的建设规模很大。根据目前的政策计划,IEA指出,2040年尚未建造的三分之二的建筑物。

其中,70%的建筑将在城市地区进行。该机构表示,能够节能建筑规范的遵循能力建设规范的程度将对全国能源使用情况有重要轴承。

清洁烹饪,cooling电器负责大约2040年建筑物中的能源需求增长的“绝大多数”。

Tenement-block-in-Mumbai-with-air-conditioning-units
孟买的房间块与空调单位。信用:蒂姆格雷厄姆/ alamy股票照片。

In 2019, the nation had what the IEA called a “remarkable achievement” when it reached near-universal household connectivity to electricity. In a similar push, there are plans to phase out much of the use of traditional biomass – mainly firewood – as a cooking and heating fuel across India.

This will also cut emissions as cleaner alternatives, such as electric heaters, are used instead, a trend shown in the chart below.

2019-2040之间的步骤中印度住宅的能源需求变化
2019 - 2019 - 2019年间,印度住宅建筑的能源需求变动,随着逐步淘汰的传统生物量而导致黄色的传统生物质,逐步降低。来源:IEA。

然而,由于印度人变得富裕而升高的温度,这一时期的能源需求的最大增加来自空调使用中的一个重要的上升,因此需求更加升高。

在步骤中,印度的冷却电力消耗在接下来的二十年中占有六倍。这一增加了650泰国特拉瓦(TWH)的时间超过德国的整个功耗。

下图表明,在20世纪30年代末,空调被设定为成为最理想的家用电器。

Appliance ownership in Indian households in the STEPS scenario
Appliance ownership in Indian households in the STEPS scenario. Source: IEA.

Efforts are underway in India to strengthen minimum performance standards of air conditioners, according to the IEA.

此类措施的成功有助于遏制电力需求,并有助于解决需要在未来几年对印度电力系统放置压力的电力需求的可变性。

来自这个故事的Sharelines
  • IEA: India is on ‘cusp of a solar-powered revolution’
  • IEA:太阳能在印度正在进行“爆炸性增长”

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