It is also a highly complex global system, which makes the task of determining precisely how people’s diets need to change difficult.
这se are their responses, first as sample quotes, then, below, in full:
- Prof Maggie Gill: “There is no single answer on what you or I should change. It depends on where you live, where and how you buy your food, where it was produced, how it was processed and how far it has travelled.”
- Laura Wellesley: “Long story short: without dietary change, our hopes of averting global temperature rises of 2C or above become very slim indeed.”
- Chris Stark: “A change in diet away from the most carbon-intensive food, such as beef, lamb and dairy, could drive down agricultural emissions.”
- Prof Dave Reay: “Getting it right on food and climate change is not just about the carbon footprint of what is on our plates; for many millions of people it’s about whether there is any food on the plate at all.”
- 布伦特金: “The responsibility for adopting plant-forward diets falls most heavily on high-income countries.”
- Marco Springmann博士: “Without targeted changes, food-related greenhouse gas emissions could increase by 90% by 2050.”
- Joanna Trewern：“这种饮食过渡不会出现在企业和政府的行动。”
- Sheril Kirshenbaum.：“改变我们吃的东西可以显着帮助达到气候目标而不需要新的创新。”
- Dr Hannah Ritchie: “Reducing meat consumption is important, but substituting for lower footprint meats can also make a big difference.”
- Janet Ranganathan：“限制反刍动物肉类消费......也几乎消除了对额外农业土地扩张的需求，帮助养活了不断增长的世界人口，而不会削减更多的森林。”
- Jen Leung: “On a per-capita basis, Asians consume far less meat than most Western countries…but the magnitude of 1.5 billion Chinese consumers and the rate of growth means curbing consumption trends can make a huge difference.”
- Dr Rosemary Ostfeld: “Eat the food you buy and don’t waste it – food waste is a significant contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions.”
- 莎拉·缰乐教授: “We need mandatory accredited labelling of foods to show their environmental impacts.”
- Dr Amos Tai: “Adopting a diet of ‘mostly plants’ would be not only simply a doctor’s recommendation to their patients, but also one of the most profound paths toward a sustainable planet.”
- Rob Percival.: “An organic – or, more broadly, ‘agroecological’ – scenario would require that we eat differently and use our land differently.”
Emeritus professor in the School of Biology
University of Aberdeen
Diets are also complex, made up of components from a variety of food chains. Fifty years ago seasons had a major impact on availability, but advances in technology and expansion of trade have led to many products becoming available every month of the year. So there is no single answer on what you or I should change. It depends on where you live, where and how you buy your food, where it was produced, how it was processed and how far it has travelled.
Helping individuals make sense of this complexity for the benefit of meeting climate targets requires a set of principles, rather than oversimplified messages. I offer three here, although I can think of many more.
- Aim to minimise waste, so plan ahead to match the purchase of perishable goods and quantities purchased to healthy household consumption, including healthy portion sizes.
- Match your selection of fruit and vegetables to local seasonal availability, but not to the extent of prejudicing healthy consumption.
However, overall, perhaps the most important action individuals can take is to work together to pressure the food industry to ensure that environmental sustainability in all aspects of the food chain is a high priority.Laura Wellesley
Senior research fellow
If we are to stand a chance of keeping global temperature rise to 1.5C, our diets need to undergo a radical transformation for two reasons.
Firstly, what we eat – and how we grow it – constitutes a major driver of climate change. The global food system is estimated to contribute around 30% of greenhouse gas emissions and more than half of those emissions can be attributed to livestock production. If diets continue along current trajectories, the livestock sector will use uparound halfof our total 1.5C-consistent carbon budget by 2030 and 37% of a budget consistent with 2C. Switching our diets to lower-emissions alternatives – which, broadly speaking, means moving to more plant-based diets – could go a long way to reducing our overall emissions.
Secondly, we need to limit the amount of land we use to produce our food if hoped-for carbon sequestration strategies are to be feasible. Currently, the most ambitious climate scenarios – those that are in line with the巴黎协议– assume that生物能量碳捕获和储存（贝尔斯）将以规模部署为此目的。但是，在想象的规模上，贝尔将需要巨大的土地，equivalent toaround half of current global cropland. Other nature-based solutions on the table as climate mitigation strategies include afforestation and reforestation. These again assume that enough land will be made available.
Agriculture usesaroundone-third of all ice-free land; three-quarters of that agricultural land被占用了with livestock grazing or livestock feed production. Adopting diets that deliver good nutrition for all without transgressing planetary boundaries could significantly reduce the amount of land needed for agriculture, as well as free up land for such sequestration strategies.
Long story short: without dietary change, our hopes of averting global temperature rises of 2C or above become very slim indeed.Chris Stark
Committee on Climate Change
远离最多碳化碳化的食物等饮食的变化，如牛肉，羊肉和乳制品，可以推动农业排放，同时释放土地，以增加碳封存，如植树。Farming currently accounts for more than 70% of land use in the UK.
Some of these changes are already underway. The introduction of plant-based substitutes, such asBeyond Meat那不可能的汉堡and non-dairy milk, have shown there is real potential and appetite for alternatives to beef, lamb and dairy. These products have a much lower emissions footprint than the animal-based originals. It is also important that we avoid imports of higher emission products.
这message here is eat a little less beef, lamb and dairy – and when you do eat it, go for good quality produce from the UK. The UK is one of the least emissions-intensive producers of ruminant meats and dairy products when compared with other countries.Prof Dave Reay
Chair in carbon management and education
Of course, it is not only about emissions. Our food choices can make or break livelihoods. They can lend resilience to what is already a fraying global food system or they can distort and snap its fragile threads.
Embedding sustainability standards and assurance systems into food supply chains – such as is被尝试可可-帮助农民适应c是至关重要的limate change, improving productivity and driving down emissions. Getting it right on food and climate change is not just about the carbon footprint of what is on our plates; for many millions of people it’s about whether there is any food on the plate at all.布伦特金
Programme officer, food production and public health
Johns Hopkins Center for a Livable Future
这吃柳叶赛委员会on healthy diets from sustainable food systems established a target of 5bn tonnes of CO2 equivalent from food systems by 2050. The target assumes CO2 emissions will reach zero by 2050 and, thus, applies only to methane and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions. The commission recommends a healthy, plant-forward diet, high in wholegrains, legumes, vegetables, fruits and healthy fats with a very modest amount of animal protein – about 300 calories worth, or only 12% of the recommended 2,500 calories.
的责任采用plant-forward饮食s falls most heavily on high-income countries, such the US, which currently consume the highest amounts of animal products. Dietary patterns can only be considered “sustainable” if they meet nutrition as well as ecological goals and many low- and middle-income countries will likely need to increase their intake of animal foods to address the high prevalence of malnutrition. Offsetting the associated increase in emissions will require high-income countries to reduce animal product intake even further.
Fortunately, there are many flexible options. As the EAT-Lancet Commission suggests, there is room on sustainable menus for a modest amount of animal protein. For example, my colleagues and I at the Johns Hopkins Center for a Livable Futureproposed一种“低食物链”饮食主要是基于植物的植物蛋白质，例如小鱼，双级软体动物和可食用昆虫。斯图尔特罗伯茨
UK National Farmers Union
当涉及到饮食,没有人但individual to dictate what they should and shouldn’t eat. People need to make the decision based on what is right for them, and be confident that whatever diet they adopt they can make decisions within that to lower their carbon footprint.
One of the best ways to do this is to consider where and how a product has been produced. Beef is the obvious example. You can eat beef from Brazil where the Amazon is being cut down to make room for cattle and the crops that feed them, or you can eat UK beef which is reared on a grass-based diet, contributes to vast stores of carbon in grassland and where emissions是一半the global average. [For more on grass-fed beef, see亚慱官网碳简介coverage of a report in 2017 that found it is still a net contributor to climate change.]
It’s the same with all products – you can get avocados, soya and almonds that have been produced with minimal climate impact, and you can get avocados, soya and almonds that have been produced in some of the most unsustainable systems around. It is all about the where and the how.
Ultimately, farmers will produce food to follow market trends and consumer demand. We know that people want to eat nutritious food that has been produced to high environmental and animal welfare standards, and that’s the benchmark British farmers set themselves every day.Marco Springmann博士
Oxford Martin Programme on the Future of Food
We estimatedthat without targeted changes, food-related greenhouse gas emissions could increase by 90% by 2050.
But how much do diets need to change to meet climate targets? An international team of 36 researchers and I尝试做为来自可持续食品系统的健康饮食委员会提供对该问题的答案。我们为行星健康饮食制定了健康，营养平衡，以及当与其他食物系统的变化相结合时，即达到食物有关的气候目标和其他环境目标，包括陆地和用水和肥料应用。[有关此饮食的详细信息，请参阅碳简介亚慱官网互动解释者。}
Of course, there is some flexibility to these broad recommendations, but we found that, for example, doubling the amount of red meat or dairy [from proposed levels] increased emissions far above the limit. The upshot of this and other research is: climate-friendly diets are predominantly plant-based.Joanna Trewern
Sustainable diets and behaviour change specialist
In higher income countries, such as the UK, we need to rebalance our diets and change our relationship with protein –60% of the proteinconsumed by the average UK citizen comes from animal sources and only 20% of us eat enough vegetables.
我们的生活得很好饮食分析表明，对yabo亚博体育app下载现有饮食的较小变化，包括进食更多的植物，谷物和豆类，可以在2030年到2030年延长温室气体排放量，同时仍然满足英国政府举办的营养需求Eatwell Guide。We produced recommendations for adults, adolescents, the elderly and vegans, recognising their different dietary requirements.
This dietary transition won’t happen without action from businesses and government, who need to demonstrate leadership and create the enabling environment for change that supports and incentivises consumers, businesses and food producers to alter their behaviours and practices.Sheril Kirshenbaum.
新一代植物肉类肉类被设计成味道，气味甚至bleed就像真实的东西一样 - 没有使用养殖场所需的土地，能量和水。我们的国家调查at Michigan State University suggest millenials and Gen Z are already embracing these plant-based alternatives, while major food chains and grocery stores are making them increasingly available. Likewise,cell-cultured meat不涉及牲畜并避免相关的环境影响，有望进一步降低全球依赖传统上饲养的牛肉，家禽和海鲜。
由于我们越来越深思地对我们在杂货店购买的购买，更了解不必要的销售日期，并意识到我们的个人和集体“Foodprint”，我们有一个真正的机会，更接近气候目标。Dr Hannah Ritchie
Head of research
我们的数据;University of Oxford
食品通常是陷害sustainabili之母ty issues: not only for its impacts on climate change, but also as the largest user of land and as a driver of deforestation, water use, pollution of water systems and biodiversity loss. Combine that with its socioeconomic role – for health, nutrition, livelihoods and culture – and we’re left with a really complex challenge.
Vice president for research, data, and innovation
在美国，反刍动物肉（大多数牛肉）仅供应3％的卡路里和12％的蛋白质，同时有助于普通人与饮食有关的温室气体排放量大约一半。如果牛是形成自己的国家，他们就是第三大emitter behind China and the US. They’d also be one of the fast-growing nations. Ruminant meat demandis projectedto grow by 88% between 2010 and 2050.
Limiting ruminant meat consumption to about 1.5 hamburgers per person per week would cut in half the agriculture sector’s 11bn tonne of CO2e mitigation gap (the difference between expected agricultural emissions in 2050 and the target level needed to hold global warming below 2C). It would also nearly eliminate the need for additional agricultural land expansion, helping to feed a growing world population without cutting down more forests.
在饮食中的转变已经在进行中。希尔顿，宜家和最大汉堡等公司已签署Cool Food Pledgeto collectively reduce emissions associated with the food they provide by 25% by 2030 relative to 2015 – a level of ambition in line with keeping global warming below 1.5C.Jen Leung
Climate programme director
In climate advocacy, only more recently have people begun to focus on the impact of diets on the climate crisis and the tremendous environmental cost of eating meat and dairy in particular.
Asia is currently responsible45％of global meat consumption. Meat and seafood consumption is set to rise by almost 80% by 2050, spurred by rising wealth and a growing middle class. On a per-capita basis, Asians consume far less meat than most Western countries – for example, China consumes about half the amount as Americans – but the magnitude of 1.5 billion Chinese consumers and the rate of growth means curbing consumption trends can make a huge difference on a global scale.
Also, traditionally Asian diets have a much healthier balance of plant-based versus meat dishes, so not only can we emphasise the benefits of eating sustainably, we can do this by celebrating traditional cuisines and cultures.Dr Rosemary Ostfeld
这re are a few simple things people can consider at their next meal:
- 使用具有低气候冲击的输入生长的食物。当合成氮的肥料用于种植作物时，这导致N2O排放 - 所以考虑在没有应用合成肥料的情况下有机种植的食物。
- 吃季节的水果和蔬菜，在本地种植。大量的新鲜水果和蔬菜are importedinto the US and UK and some highly perishable foods may need to be transported by air to make it to your plate without spoiling.
Finally, eat the food you buy and don’t waste it – food waste is asignificantcontributor to global greenhouse gas emissions.莎拉·缰乐教授
Science and Technology Facilities Council (STFC) Food Network+
When I started out in my transition from astrophysics research to food and climate change, I wanted to know “theclimate impactof eggs” or “the climate impact of nuts”. I realise now that only a relative newcomer would have the audacity to ask such simplistic questions.Many studieshave found that there is a wide range of climate impacts from producers of each single type of food. We need to embrace the fact that different food production practices cause different climate impacts.
Only with this information can we all get on the same side of the table and have rational discussions about how to transform the food system and make informed decisions about how to change what we eat. The consumer is empowered but, most importantly of all, the food producer is involved in the process and has the opportunity to make significant improvements. And, if that isn’t enough, climate impact labelling is a necessary first step towards financial incentivisation.保罗博士议员
Shifting diets may be an opportunity for exploration rather than abstinence. One学习发现，随着植物植物的型食品可用，肉类食物选择更多的植物食物。这希望与响应各个饮食的变化和响应商店中可用的东西的变化，这将是一个善意的反馈。
与化石燃料补贴一样，迫切需要农业补贴改革，以确保这些选择似乎不会是人为昂贵的。我们只划伤了新的基于植物的食物中可能的表面。问题仍然存在：我们可以更改多么快 - 并且它会很快遏制最坏情况的情况？Dr Amos Tai
Associate professor in the earth system science programme
这Chinese University of Hong Kong
- Interactive: How climate change could threaten the world’s traditional dishes
- Interactive: How climate change shapes food insecurity across the world
- Grass-fed beef will not help tackle climate change, report finds
- Farming overtakes deforestation and land use as a driver of climate change
City-dwellers, however, may think that their contribution in this regard is limited – after all, most of them aren’t involved in the food production sector. That is far from being true. We all eat food, and our food demand is the ultimate driver for food production.
City-dwellers generally have higher meat and dairy consumption than rural populations. Hong Kong – where I’m from – is a notorious case; about 40% of our daily calorie intake is derived from meat, egg and dairy products. Adopting a diet of “mostly plants” would be not only simply a doctor’s recommendation to their patients, but also one of the most profound paths toward a sustainable planet with a stable climate.Rob Percival.
Because they avoid artificial fertilisers, protect soils and use less energy, organic farms are helping to mitigate climate change. If Europe’s farmland all followed organic principles, agricultural emissions可以掉下来by 40-50% by 2050.
Organic farming nourishes plants naturally by building fertile soils, using leguminous plants to fix nitrogen, as well as using compost, animal manure and green manures, and crop rotations. This process is fuelled by the sun, whereas the manufacture of synthetic nitrogen fertilisers relies on fossil fuels. Fertiliser manufacture consumes between 3% and 5% of the world’s natural gas, and fertiliser application contributes to the release of nitrous oxide.
土壤是我们对抗气候变化和有机土壤的最重要工具之一，通常隔离和储存更多碳。奶牛 - 正如我们经常被告知 - Burp Methane，但在有机系统中，他们对健康的土壤，营养骑自行车和景观管理产生了重要贡献。
有机 - 或，更广泛地，“农业生态学” - 情景需要不同的食用，并使用我们的土地不同。我们的饮食将在植物和植物蛋白中富有更浓郁，并将包括更少的超加工食品。我们会吃得更少的猪肉和家禽 - 整体肉类少 - 逐步逐步淘汰了密集的牲畜生产。但来自反刍动物的肉将仍然是一个积分 - 如果减少 - 我们的饮食的一部分。
Experts: How do diets need to change to meet climate targets?
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