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在桌上服务和吃食物的艺术品的印地安妇女。信用:巴里二元/ alamy股票照片。
在桌上服务和吃食物的艺术品的印地安妇女。 信用:巴里二元/ alamy股票照片。
FOOD AND FARMING
2020年9月16日7点

Experts: How do diets need to change to meet climate targets?

Carbon Brief Staff

Carbon Brief Staff

16.。0.9.2020 | 7:00am
食品和农业 Experts: How do diets need to change to meet climate targets?

这food system is amajor contributorto climate change and, without significant shifts inglobal diets那it is unlikely the world will achieve its targets under the Paris Agreement.

It is also a highly complex global system, which makes the task of determining precisely how people’s diets need to change difficult.

除了一般原则,如切割肉和乳制品消费,需要解决的其他问题包括世界各地食品生产排放的差异,避免食物垃圾。

作为我们一周的一周系列审查食物和气候变化的一部分,碳简短提出了一系列科学家,政策专家和其他利益攸关方的饮食变革的榜样,以限制全球变暖。亚慱官网

这se are their responses, first as sample quotes, then, below, in full:

  • Prof Maggie Gill: “There is no single answer on what you or I should change. It depends on where you live, where and how you buy your food, where it was produced, how it was processed and how far it has travelled.”
  • Laura Wellesley: “Long story short: without dietary change, our hopes of averting global temperature rises of 2C or above become very slim indeed.”
  • Chris Stark: “A change in diet away from the most carbon-intensive food, such as beef, lamb and dairy, could drive down agricultural emissions.”
  • Prof Dave Reay: “Getting it right on food and climate change is not just about the carbon footprint of what is on our plates; for many millions of people it’s about whether there is any food on the plate at all.”
  • 布伦特金: “The responsibility for adopting plant-forward diets falls most heavily on high-income countries.”
  • 斯图尔特罗伯茨:“农民将产生食物以遵循市场趋势和消费需求。我们知道人们想要吃营养丰富的食物,这些食物已经生产为高环境和动物福利标准。“
  • Marco Springmann博士: “Without targeted changes, food-related greenhouse gas emissions could increase by 90% by 2050.”
  • Joanna Trewern:“这种饮食过渡不会出现在企业和政府的行动。”
  • Sheril Kirshenbaum.:“改变我们吃的东西可以显着帮助达到气候目标而不需要新的创新。”
  • Dr Hannah Ritchie: “Reducing meat consumption is important, but substituting for lower footprint meats can also make a big difference.”
  • Janet Ranganathan:“限制反刍动物肉类消费......也几乎消除了对额外农业土地扩张的需求,帮助养活了不断增长的世界人口,而不会削减更多的森林。”
  • Jen Leung: “On a per-capita basis, Asians consume far less meat than most Western countries…but the magnitude of 1.5 billion Chinese consumers and the rate of growth means curbing consumption trends can make a huge difference.”
  • Dr Rosemary Ostfeld: “Eat the food you buy and don’t waste it – food waste is a significant contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions.”
  • 莎拉·缰乐教授: “We need mandatory accredited labelling of foods to show their environmental impacts.”
  • 保罗博士​​议员:“转移饮食可能是探索而不是禁欲的机会。”
  • Dr Amos Tai: “Adopting a diet of ‘mostly plants’ would be not only simply a doctor’s recommendation to their patients, but also one of the most profound paths toward a sustainable planet.”
  • Rob Percival.: “An organic – or, more broadly, ‘agroecological’ – scenario would require that we eat differently and use our land differently.”
Prof Maggie Gill Prof Maggie Gill
Emeritus professor in the School of Biology
University of Aberdeen

这个问题可以在全球下降到各个选择的许多不同的尺度。食物系统复杂,温室气体排放是在沿着食物链的所有点生产,包括生产,储存,运输,加工,零售和烹饪。

Diets are also complex, made up of components from a variety of food chains. Fifty years ago seasons had a major impact on availability, but advances in technology and expansion of trade have led to many products becoming available every month of the year. So there is no single answer on what you or I should change. It depends on where you live, where and how you buy your food, where it was produced, how it was processed and how far it has travelled.

Helping individuals make sense of this complexity for the benefit of meeting climate targets requires a set of principles, rather than oversimplified messages. I offer three here, although I can think of many more.

  • Aim to minimise waste, so plan ahead to match the purchase of perishable goods and quantities purchased to healthy household consumption, including healthy portion sizes.
  • Match your selection of fruit and vegetables to local seasonal availability, but not to the extent of prejudicing healthy consumption.
  • 如果您当前的饮食丰富,则冒充红肉和乳制品的消费。

However, overall, perhaps the most important action individuals can take is to work together to pressure the food industry to ensure that environmental sustainability in all aspects of the food chain is a high priority.

Laura Wellesley Laura Wellesley
Senior research fellow
Chatham House

If we are to stand a chance of keeping global temperature rise to 1.5C, our diets need to undergo a radical transformation for two reasons.

Firstly, what we eat – and how we grow it – constitutes a major driver of climate change. The global food system is estimated to contribute around 30% of greenhouse gas emissions and more than half of those emissions can be attributed to livestock production. If diets continue along current trajectories, the livestock sector will use uparound halfof our total 1.5C-consistent carbon budget by 2030 and 37% of a budget consistent with 2C. Switching our diets to lower-emissions alternatives – which, broadly speaking, means moving to more plant-based diets – could go a long way to reducing our overall emissions.

Secondly, we need to limit the amount of land we use to produce our food if hoped-for carbon sequestration strategies are to be feasible. Currently, the most ambitious climate scenarios – those that are in line with the巴黎协议– assume that生物能量碳捕获和储存(贝尔斯)将以规模部署为此目的。但是,在想象的规模上,贝尔将需要巨大的土地,equivalent toaround half of current global cropland. Other nature-based solutions on the table as climate mitigation strategies include afforestation and reforestation. These again assume that enough land will be made available.

Agriculture usesaroundone-third of all ice-free land; three-quarters of that agricultural land被占用了with livestock grazing or livestock feed production. Adopting diets that deliver good nutrition for all without transgressing planetary boundaries could significantly reduce the amount of land needed for agriculture, as well as free up land for such sequestration strategies.

Long story short: without dietary change, our hopes of averting global temperature rises of 2C or above become very slim indeed.

Chris Stark Chris Stark
首席执行官
Committee on Climate Change

远离最多碳化碳化的食物等饮食的变化,如牛肉,羊肉和乳制品,可以推动农业排放,同时释放土地,以增加碳封存,如植树。Farming currently accounts for more than 70% of land use in the UK.

In its净零建议in 2019 – and in an广泛的报告今年早些时候,英国如何改变其土地的使用,以满足气候目标 - CCC在2050年到2050年的牛肉,羊肉和乳制品的牛肉消费量增加了20%。肉类消费的减少甚至会使土地使用变化更轻松。

Some of these changes are already underway. The introduction of plant-based substitutes, such asBeyond Meat不可能的汉堡and non-dairy milk, have shown there is real potential and appetite for alternatives to beef, lamb and dairy. These products have a much lower emissions footprint than the animal-based originals. It is also important that we avoid imports of higher emission products.

在纯温兰堡提供的汉堡。

纯温斯堡提供100%的植物不可能的汉堡。信用:休米顿/ alamy股票照片。

这message here is eat a little less beef, lamb and dairy – and when you do eat it, go for good quality produce from the UK. The UK is one of the least emissions-intensive producers of ruminant meats and dairy products when compared with other countries.

Prof Dave Reay Prof Dave Reay
Chair in carbon management and education
爱丁堡大学

我们的饮食需要造成气候智能。在发达国家中,这意味着反刍肉和乳制品消费较少,毗邻切割家庭食物垃圾的大改善。仅在英国,约有400米吨的食物食品ends up(pdf) in the bin or down the drain each year – with a climate cost equivalent to around25米tonnes of CO2 .

Of course, it is not only about emissions. Our food choices can make or break livelihoods. They can lend resilience to what is already a fraying global food system or they can distort and snap its fragile threads.

Embedding sustainability standards and assurance systems into food supply chains – such as is被尝试可可-帮助农民适应c是至关重要的limate change, improving productivity and driving down emissions. Getting it right on food and climate change is not just about the carbon footprint of what is on our plates; for many millions of people it’s about whether there is any food on the plate at all.

布伦特金 布伦特金
Programme officer, food production and public health
Johns Hopkins Center for a Livable Future

如果全球肉类和乳制品摄入量继续升高,则仅来自农业的温室气体排放非常可能超越2050个目标。

吃柳叶赛委员会on healthy diets from sustainable food systems established a target of 5bn tonnes of CO2 equivalent from food systems by 2050. The target assumes CO2 emissions will reach zero by 2050 and, thus, applies only to methane and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions. The commission recommends a healthy, plant-forward diet, high in wholegrains, legumes, vegetables, fruits and healthy fats with a very modest amount of animal protein – about 300 calories worth, or only 12% of the recommended 2,500 calories.

的责任采用plant-forward饮食s falls most heavily on high-income countries, such the US, which currently consume the highest amounts of animal products. Dietary patterns can only be considered “sustainable” if they meet nutrition as well as ecological goals and many low- and middle-income countries will likely need to increase their intake of animal foods to address the high prevalence of malnutrition. Offsetting the associated increase in emissions will require high-income countries to reduce animal product intake even further.

Fortunately, there are many flexible options. As the EAT-Lancet Commission suggests, there is room on sustainable menus for a modest amount of animal protein. For example, my colleagues and I at the Johns Hopkins Center for a Livable Futureproposed一种“低食物链”饮食主要是基于植物的植物蛋白质,例如小鱼,双级软体动物和可食用昆虫。

斯图尔特罗伯茨 斯图尔特罗伯茨
副总裁
UK National Farmers Union

当涉及到饮食,没有人但individual to dictate what they should and shouldn’t eat. People need to make the decision based on what is right for them, and be confident that whatever diet they adopt they can make decisions within that to lower their carbon footprint.

One of the best ways to do this is to consider where and how a product has been produced. Beef is the obvious example. You can eat beef from Brazil where the Amazon is being cut down to make room for cattle and the crops that feed them, or you can eat UK beef which is reared on a grass-based diet, contributes to vast stores of carbon in grassland and where emissions是一半the global average. [For more on grass-fed beef, see亚慱官网碳简介coverage of a report in 2017 that found it is still a net contributor to climate change.]

It’s the same with all products – you can get avocados, soya and almonds that have been produced with minimal climate impact, and you can get avocados, soya and almonds that have been produced in some of the most unsustainable systems around. It is all about the where and the how.

Ultimately, farmers will produce food to follow market trends and consumer demand. We know that people want to eat nutritious food that has been produced to high environmental and animal welfare standards, and that’s the benchmark British farmers set themselves every day.

Marco Springmann博士 Marco Springmann博士
人口健康的高级研究员
Oxford Martin Programme on the Future of Food

We estimatedthat without targeted changes, food-related greenhouse gas emissions could increase by 90% by 2050.

But how much do diets need to change to meet climate targets? An international team of 36 researchers and I尝试做为来自可持续食品系统的健康饮食委员会提供对该问题的答案。我们为行星健康饮食制定了健康,营养平衡,以及当与其他食物系统的变化相结合时,即达到食物有关的气候目标和其他环境目标,包括陆地和用水和肥料应用。[有关此饮食的详细信息,请参阅碳简介亚慱官网互动解释者。}

Of course, there is some flexibility to these broad recommendations, but we found that, for example, doubling the amount of red meat or dairy [from proposed levels] increased emissions far above the limit. The upshot of this and other research is: climate-friendly diets are predominantly plant-based.

Joanna Trewern Joanna Trewern
Sustainable diets and behaviour change specialist
WWF UK

In higher income countries, such as the UK, we need to rebalance our diets and change our relationship with protein –60% of the proteinconsumed by the average UK citizen comes from animal sources and only 20% of us eat enough vegetables.

我们的生活得很好饮食分析表明,对yabo亚博体育app下载现有饮食的较小变化,包括进食更多的植物,谷物和豆类,可以在2030年到2030年延长温室气体排放量,同时仍然满足英国政府举办的营养需求Eatwell Guide。We produced recommendations for adults, adolescents, the elderly and vegans, recognising their different dietary requirements.

This dietary transition won’t happen without action from businesses and government, who need to demonstrate leadership and create the enabling environment for change that supports and incentivises consumers, businesses and food producers to alter their behaviours and practices.

Sheril Kirshenbaum. Sheril Kirshenbaum.
助理研究科学家[email protected]
密歇根州立大学

不需要新的创新,改变我们吃的东西可以显着帮助达到气候目标。虽然我们不能指望每个人都采用素食生活方式,但大概过渡到更多植物的饮食将有意义地减少排放,同时节省了水和能量等重要资源。

新一代植物肉类肉类被设计成味道,气味甚至bleed就像真实的东西一样 - 没有使用养殖场所需的土地,能量和水。我们的国家调查at Michigan State University suggest millenials and Gen Z are already embracing these plant-based alternatives, while major food chains and grocery stores are making them increasingly available. Likewise,cell-cultured meat不涉及牲畜并避免相关的环境影响,有望进一步降低全球依赖传统上饲养的牛肉,家禽和海鲜。

由于我们越来越深思地对我们在杂货店购买的购买,更了解不必要的销售日期,并意识到我们的个人和集体“Foodprint”,我们有一个真正的机会,更接近气候目标。

Dr Hannah Ritchie Dr Hannah Ritchie
Head of research
我们的数据;University of Oxford

食品通常是陷害sustainabili之母ty issues: not only for its impacts on climate change, but also as the largest user of land and as a driver of deforestation, water use, pollution of water systems and biodiversity loss. Combine that with its socioeconomic role – for health, nutrition, livelihoods and culture – and we’re left with a really complex challenge.

具有这种复杂性,没有“一种尺寸适合所有”解决方案。不仅是“全部或全无”方法有时候是不适合当地的背景,它们也是非常社会分裂的。减少肉类消费很重要,但代替较低的占地面积也可以产生大的差异:鸡肉,鸡蛋和鱼往往具有较低的气候影响。

单独的饮食变化是不够的。即使我们所有人都接近推荐的准则,我们也会在没有大量改善的生产者方面吃掉碳预算。我们需要继续提高作物产量,营养效率,牧场管理和牲畜生产力。解决方案非常依赖于本地背景。

Janet Ranganathan Janet Ranganathan
Vice president for research, data, and innovation
世界资源研究所

在美国,反刍动物肉(大多数牛肉)仅供应3%的卡路里和12%的蛋白质,同时有助于普通人与饮食有关的温室气体排放量大约一半。如果牛是形成自己的国家,他们就是第三大emitter behind China and the US. They’d also be one of the fast-growing nations. Ruminant meat demandis projectedto grow by 88% between 2010 and 2050.

Glossary
CO.2相等的:温室气体可以以二氧化碳等效,或CO表示2eq. For a given amount, different greenhouse gases trap different amounts of heat in the atmosphere, a quantity known as…Read More

Limiting ruminant meat consumption to about 1.5 hamburgers per person per week would cut in half the agriculture sector’s 11bn tonne of CO2e mitigation gap (the difference between expected agricultural emissions in 2050 and the target level needed to hold global warming below 2C). It would also nearly eliminate the need for additional agricultural land expansion, helping to feed a growing world population without cutting down more forests.

在饮食中的转变已经在进行中。希尔顿,宜家和最大汉堡等公司已签署Cool Food Pledgeto collectively reduce emissions associated with the food they provide by 25% by 2030 relative to 2015 – a level of ambition in line with keeping global warming below 1.5C.

Jen Leung Jen Leung
Climate programme director
野秀

In climate advocacy, only more recently have people begun to focus on the impact of diets on the climate crisis and the tremendous environmental cost of eating meat and dairy in particular.

在Wildaid时,我们的目标是通过降低排放来改变气候变化的更可持续,气候友好饮食的需求,而且还减少砍伐森林制作和肉类生产造成的自然资源的流失。我们在全球范围内工作,但看到巨大的潜力启动海洋变革,以通过在亚洲工作转向全球友好饮食。

在每个人均基础上,亚洲人比大多数西方国家的肉更少。

在每个人均基础上,亚洲人比大多数西方国家的肉更少。信用:眼睛/ alamy股票照片。

Asia is currently responsible45%of global meat consumption. Meat and seafood consumption is set to rise by almost 80% by 2050, spurred by rising wealth and a growing middle class. On a per-capita basis, Asians consume far less meat than most Western countries – for example, China consumes about half the amount as Americans – but the magnitude of 1.5 billion Chinese consumers and the rate of growth means curbing consumption trends can make a huge difference on a global scale.

Also, traditionally Asian diets have a much healthier balance of plant-based versus meat dishes, so not only can we emphasise the benefits of eating sustainably, we can do this by celebrating traditional cuisines and cultures.

Dr Rosemary Ostfeld Dr Rosemary Ostfeld
跨学科环境科学家
Wesleyan University

这re are a few simple things people can consider at their next meal:

  • 使用具有低气候冲击的输入生长的食物。当合成氮​​的肥料用于种植作物时,这导致N2O排放 - 所以考虑在没有应用合成肥料的情况下有机种植的食物。
  • 吃季节的水果和蔬菜,在本地种植。大量的新鲜水果和蔬菜are importedinto the US and UK and some highly perishable foods may need to be transported by air to make it to your plate without spoiling.

Finally, eat the food you buy and don’t waste it – food waste is asignificantcontributor to global greenhouse gas emissions.

莎拉·缰乐教授 莎拉·缰乐教授
Founder
Science and Technology Facilities Council (STFC) Food Network+

When I started out in my transition from astrophysics research to food and climate change, I wanted to know “theclimate impactof eggs” or “the climate impact of nuts”. I realise now that only a relative newcomer would have the audacity to ask such simplistic questions.Many studieshave found that there is a wide range of climate impacts from producers of each single type of food. We need to embrace the fact that different food production practices cause different climate impacts.

收到我们的自由亚慱彩票对于过去24小时的气候和能量媒体覆盖范围的摘要,或我们的摘要每周简报for a round-up of our content from the past seven days. Just enter your email below:

也许作为一个数据极客,我偏见,但我得出了唯一的潜在死锁是透明度和数据的唯一方法。We need强制性认可的食物标签,以表达其环境影响。

Only with this information can we all get on the same side of the table and have rational discussions about how to transform the food system and make informed decisions about how to change what we eat. The consumer is empowered but, most importantly of all, the food producer is involved in the process and has the opportunity to make significant improvements. And, if that isn’t enough, climate impact labelling is a necessary first step towards financial incentivisation.

保罗博士​​议员 保罗博士​​议员
环境和气候变化助理教授
Leiden University

Shifting diets may be an opportunity for exploration rather than abstinence. One学习发现,随着植物植物的型食品可用,肉类食物选择更多的植物食物。这希望与响应各个饮食的变化和响应商店中可用的东西的变化,这将是一个善意的反馈。

与化石燃料补贴一样,迫切需要农业补贴改革,以确保这些选择似乎不会是人为昂贵的。我们只划伤了新的基于植物的食物中可能的表面。问题仍然存在:我们可以更改多么快 - 并且它会很快遏制最坏情况的情况?

Dr Amos Tai Dr Amos Tai
Associate professor in the earth system science programme
这Chinese University of Hong Kong

改变当前的食物系统是对抗气候变化的整体解决方案的重要组成部分。已被证明具有高减缓潜力的可持续农业方法,如间作和作物旋转。

City-dwellers, however, may think that their contribution in this regard is limited – after all, most of them aren’t involved in the food production sector. That is far from being true. We all eat food, and our food demand is the ultimate driver for food production.

我会借三个food mottos知名科学作家提出,亚慱彩票APPMichael Pollan,即:“吃食物。不要太多。主要是植物。“

Pollan最初为关注个人健康的读者撰写了他的建议,但它们也可能适用于行星健康。“吃食物”意味着吃真实,未加工和主要是当地的食物。有意识地减少日常食品消费可以减少健康风险,也可以减少粮食需求和浪费,渲染生产更有效,更少的温室气体发射。

City-dwellers generally have higher meat and dairy consumption than rural populations. Hong Kong – where I’m from – is a notorious case; about 40% of our daily calorie intake is derived from meat, egg and dairy products. Adopting a diet of “mostly plants” would be not only simply a doctor’s recommendation to their patients, but also one of the most profound paths toward a sustainable planet with a stable climate.

Rob Percival. Rob Percival.
粮食政策
土壤协会

Because they avoid artificial fertilisers, protect soils and use less energy, organic farms are helping to mitigate climate change. If Europe’s farmland all followed organic principles, agricultural emissions可以掉下来by 40-50% by 2050.

Organic farming nourishes plants naturally by building fertile soils, using leguminous plants to fix nitrogen, as well as using compost, animal manure and green manures, and crop rotations. This process is fuelled by the sun, whereas the manufacture of synthetic nitrogen fertilisers relies on fossil fuels. Fertiliser manufacture consumes between 3% and 5% of the world’s natural gas, and fertiliser application contributes to the release of nitrous oxide.

土壤是我们对抗气候变化和有机土壤的最重要工具之一,通常隔离和储存更多碳。奶牛 - 正如我们经常被告知 - Burp Methane,但在有机系统中,他们对健康的土壤,营养骑自行车和景观管理产生了重要贡献。

有机 - 或,更广泛地,“农业生态学” - 情景需要不同的食用,并使用我们的土地不同。我们的饮食将在植物和植物蛋白中富有更浓郁,并将包括更少的超加工食品。我们会吃得更少的猪肉和家禽 - 整体肉类少 - 逐步逐步淘汰了密集的牲畜生产。但来自反刍动物的肉将仍然是一个积分 - 如果减少 - 我们的饮食的一部分。

Sharelines from this story
  • Experts: How do diets need to change to meet climate targets?
  • 深入:专家讨论饮食如何改变以解决气候变化

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